Dataset Information

Forecasting Seasonal Vibrio parahaemolyticus Concentrations in New England Shellfish.

ABSTRACT: Seafood-borne Vibrio parahaemolyticus illness is a global public health issue facing resource managers and the seafood industry. The recent increase in shellfish-borne illnesses in the Northeast United States has resulted in the application of intensive management practices based on a limited understanding of when and where risks are present. We aim to determine the contribution of factors that affect V. parahaemolyticus concentrations in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) using ten years of surveillance data for environmental and climate conditions in the Great Bay Estuary of New Hampshire from 2007 to 2016. A time series analysis was applied to analyze V. parahaemolyticus concentrations and local environmental predictors and develop predictive models. Whereas many environmental variables correlated with V. parahaemolyticus concentrations, only a few retained significance in capturing trends, seasonality and data variability. The optimal predictive model contained water temperature and pH, photoperiod, and the calendar day of study. The model enabled relatively accurate seasonality-based prediction of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations for 2014-2016 based on the 2007-2013 dataset and captured the increasing trend in extreme values of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations. The developed method enables the informative tracking of V. parahaemolyticus concentrations in coastal ecosystems and presents a useful platform for developing area-specific risk forecasting models.

SUBMITTER: Hartwick MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6888421 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting Seasonal Vibrio parahaemolyticus Concentrations in New England Shellfish.

Hartwick Meghan A MA Urquhart Erin A EA Whistler Cheryl A CA Cooper Vaughn S VS Naumova Elena N EN Jones Stephen H SH

International journal of environmental research and public health 20191107 22

Seafood-borne Vibrio parahaemolyticus illness is a global public health issue facing resource managers and the seafood industry. The recent increase in shellfish-borne illnesses in the Northeast United States has resulted in the application of intensive management practices based on a limited understanding of when and where risks are present. We aim to determine the contribution of factors that affect V. parahaemolyticus concentrations in oysters (Crassostrea virginica) usin ...[more]

PMID: 31703312

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Project description:Vibrio parahaemolyticus is becoming the leading cause of acute bacterial gastroenteritis, but its population dynamics in aquafarms have received limited attention. To address this research gap, we selected three shellfish farms to examine the impacts of ocean currents and the transport of live aquatic animals on the transmission and microevolution of V. parahaemolyticus by using multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and whole-genome sequencing. MLST and genomic analysis revealed that the community structure of V. parahaemolyticus in Dalian and Donggang was relatively stable in the presence of ocean currents; however, horizontal gene transfer of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) between Dalian and Donggang was very common. Further analysis indicated that the transport of live aquatic animals from Dalian to Xiamen not only introduced new V. parahaemolyticus populations but also allowed the exchange of genetic material between the two sites. More interestingly, Dalian-originated strain ST722 was introduced to Xiamen farms, resulting in one MLST allele change and the acquisition of two genomic islands from indigenous isolates in Xiamen within 8 months; such alterations are thought to promote the adaptation of V. parahaemolyticus These results provide direct observations of how ocean currents and the transport of live aquatic animals contribute to the dissemination and genetic mixture of V. parahaemolyticus, which provides insights into the dynamics and microevolution of V. parahaemolyticus in aquacultural environments.IMPORTANCE Globally, V. parahaemolyticus-related gastroenteritis outbreaks caused by seafood consumption represent an increasing threat to human health. Despite advances in our understanding of the global epidemiology of pandemic V. parahaemolyticus, fundamental questions about the key driving forces for the spread of V. parahaemolyticus at regional and national scales remain unanswered. This study revealed that the transregional transport of aquatic animals and the movement of ocean currents both contributed to the mixing of V. parahaemolyticus populations. More importantly, this study demonstrated how genetic mixture occurred between introduced and endemic V. parahaemolyticus populations via the transport of aquatic animals, which accelerated bacterial adaptation by transferring ecologically important functions. These results suggest that human activities entail a risk of the emergence of new virulent populations for both aquatic animals and humans by horizontal gene transfer and provide important insights into the microevolution and population mixing of V. parahaemolyticus.

Project description:BackgroundSince the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic, Public Health England have developed a suite of real-time statistical models utilising enhanced pandemic surveillance data to nowcast and forecast a future pandemic. Their ability to track seasonal influenza and predict heightened winter healthcare burden in the light of high activity in Australia in 2017 was untested.MethodsFour transmission models were used in forecasting the 2017/2018 seasonal influenza epidemic in England: a stratified primary care model using daily, region-specific, counts and virological swab positivity of influenza-like illness consultations in general practice (GP); a strain-specific (SS) model using weekly, national GP ILI and virological data; an intensive care model (ICU) using reports of ICU influenza admissions; and a synthesis model that included all data sources. For the first 12 weeks of 2018, each model was applied to the latest data to provide estimates of epidemic parameters and short-term influenza forecasts. The added value of pre-season population susceptibility data was explored.ResultsThe combined results provided valuable nowcasts of the state of the epidemic. Short-term predictions of burden on primary and secondary health services were initially highly variable before reaching consensus beyond the observed peaks in activity between weeks 3-4 of 2018. Estimates for R0 were consistent over time for three of the four models until week 12 of 2018, and there was consistency in the estimation of R0 across the SPC and SS models, and in the ICU attack rates estimated by the ICU and the synthesis model. Estimation and predictions varied according to the assumed levels of pre-season immunity.ConclusionsThis exercise successfully applied a range of pandemic models to seasonal influenza. Forecasting early in the season remains challenging but represents a crucially important activity to inform planning. Improved knowledge of pre-existing levels of immunity would be valuable.

Dataset Information

Forecasting Seasonal Vibrio parahaemolyticus Concentrations in New England Shellfish.

Publications

Forecasting Seasonal <i>Vibrio parahaemolyticus</i> Concentrations in New England Shellfish.

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