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Projecting the impact of variable MDR-TB transmission efficiency on long-term epidemic trends in South Africa and Vietnam.

ABSTRACT: Whether multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is less transmissible than drug-susceptible (DS-)TB on a population level is uncertain. Even in the absence of a genetic fitness cost, the transmission potential of individuals with MDR-TB may vary by infectiousness, frequency of contact, or duration of disease. We used a compartmental model to project the progression of MDR-TB epidemics in South Africa and Vietnam under alternative assumptions about the relative transmission efficiency of MDR-TB. Specifically, we considered three scenarios: consistently lower transmission efficiency for MDR-TB than for DS-TB; equal transmission efficiency; and an initial deficit in the transmission efficiency of MDR-TB that closes over time. We calibrated these scenarios with data from drug resistance surveys and projected epidemic trends to 2040. The incidence of MDR-TB was projected to expand in most scenarios, but the degree of expansion depended greatly on the future transmission efficiency of MDR-TB. For example, by 2040, we projected absolute MDR-TB incidence to account for 5% (IQR: 4-9%) of incident TB in South Africa and 14% (IQR: 9-26%) in Vietnam assuming consistently lower MDR-TB transmission efficiency, versus 15% (IQR: 8-27%)and 41% (IQR: 23-62%), respectively, assuming shrinking transmission efficiency deficits. Given future uncertainty, specific responses to halt MDR-TB transmission should be prioritized.

SUBMITTER: Salvatore PP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6889300 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Projecting the impact of variable MDR-TB transmission efficiency on long-term epidemic trends in South Africa and Vietnam.

Salvatore Phillip P PP Kendall Emily A EA Seabrook Dena D Brown Jessie J Durham George H GH Dowdy David W DW

Scientific reports 20191202 1

Whether multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is less transmissible than drug-susceptible (DS-)TB on a population level is uncertain. Even in the absence of a genetic fitness cost, the transmission potential of individuals with MDR-TB may vary by infectiousness, frequency of contact, or duration of disease. We used a compartmental model to project the progression of MDR-TB epidemics in South Africa and Vietnam under alternative assumptions about the relative transmission efficiency of MDR-TB ...[more]

PMID: 31792289

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Project description:The Union in collaboration with national TB programme (NTP) started the community-based MDR-TB care (CBMDR-TBC) project in 33 townships of upper Myanmar to improve treatment initiation and treatment adherence. Patients with MDR-TB diagnosed/registered under NTP received support through the project staff, in addition to the routine domiciliary care provided by NTP staff. Each township had a project nurse exclusively for MDR-TB and 30 USD per month (max. for 4 months) were provided to the patient as a pre-treatment support.To assess whether CBMDR-TBC project's support improved treatment initiation.In this cohort study (involving record review) of all diagnosed MDR-TB between January 2015 and June 2016 in project townships, CBMDR-TBC status was categorized as "receiving support" if date of project initiation in patient's township was before the date of diagnosis and "not receiving support", if otherwise. Cox proportional hazards regression (censored on 31 Dec 2016) was done to identify predictors of treatment initiation.Of 456 patients, 57% initiated treatment: 64% and 56% among patients "receiving support (n = 208)" and "not receiving support (n = 228)" respectively (CBMDR-TBC status was not known in 20 (4%) patients due to missing diagnosis dates). Among those initiated on treatment (n = 261), median (IQR) time to initiate treatment was 38 (20, 76) days: 31 (18, 50) among patients "receiving support" and 50 (26,101) among patients "not receiving support". After adjusting other potential confounders (age, sex, region, HIV, past history of TB treatment), patients "receiving support" had 80% higher chance of initiating treatment [aHR (0.95 CI): 1.8 (1.3, 2.3)] when compared to patients "not receiving support". In addition, age 15-54 years, previous history of TB and being HIV negative were independent predictors of treatment initiation.Receiving support under CBMDR-TBC project improved treatment initiation: it not only improved the proportion initiated but also reduced time to treatment initiation. We also recommend improved tracking of all diagnosed patients as early as possible.

Dataset Information

Projecting the impact of variable MDR-TB transmission efficiency on long-term epidemic trends in South Africa and Vietnam.

Publications

Projecting the impact of variable MDR-TB transmission efficiency on long-term epidemic trends in South Africa and Vietnam.

Similar Datasets

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