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Predicting drug-free remission in rheumatoid arthritis: A prospective interventional cohort study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Many patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) achieve disease remission with modern treatment strategies. However, having achieved this state, there are no tests that predict when withdrawal of therapy will result in drug-free remission rather than flare. We aimed to identify predictors of drug-free remission in RA. METHODS:The Biomarkers of Remission in Rheumatoid Arthritis (BioRRA) Study was a unique, prospective, interventional cohort study of complete and abrupt cessation of conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs). Patients with RA of at least 12 months duration and in clinical and ultrasound remission discontinued DMARDs and were monitored for six months. The primary outcome was time-to-flare, defined as disease activity score in 28 joints with C-reactive protein (DAS28-CRP)???2.4. Baseline clinical and ultrasound measures, circulating inflammatory biomarkers, and peripheral CD4+ T cell gene expression were assessed for their ability to predict time-to-flare and flare/remission status by Cox regression and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis respectively. RESULTS:23/44 (52%) eligible patients experienced an arthritis flare after a median (IQR) of 48 (31.5-86.5) days following DMARD cessation. A composite score incorporating five baseline variables (three transcripts [FAM102B, ENSG00000228010, ENSG00000227070], one cytokine [interleukin-27], one clinical [Boolean remission]) differentiated future flare from drug-free remission with an area under the ROC curve of 0.96 (95% CI 0.91-1.00), sensitivity 0.91 (0.78-1.00) and specificity 0.95 (0.84-1.00). CONCLUSION:We provide proof-of-concept evidence for predictors of drug-free remission in RA. If validated, these biomarkers could help to personalize immunosuppressant withdrawal: a therapy paradigm shift with ensuing patient and economic benefits.

SUBMITTER: Baker KF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6891251 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting drug-free remission in rheumatoid arthritis: A prospective interventional cohort study.

Baker Kenneth F KF Skelton Andrew J AJ Lendrem Dennis W DW Scadeng Adam A Thompson Ben B Pratt Arthur G AG Isaacs John D JD

Journal of autoimmunity 20190704

<h4>Background</h4>Many patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) achieve disease remission with modern treatment strategies. However, having achieved this state, there are no tests that predict when withdrawal of therapy will result in drug-free remission rather than flare. We aimed to identify predictors of drug-free remission in RA.<h4>Methods</h4>The Biomarkers of Remission in Rheumatoid Arthritis (BioRRA) Study was a unique, prospective, interventional cohort study of complete and abrupt cess ...[more]

PMID: 31280933

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Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity and risk of RA-associated interstitial lung disease (RA-ILD).MethodsWe investigated disease activity and risk of RA-ILD using the Brigham RA Sequential Study (BRASS, 2003-2016). All patients were diagnosed as having RA according to accepted criteria. Disease Activity Scores in 28 joints (DAS28) and covariate data were measured prospectively at annual study visits. Diagnosis of RA-ILD was determined by review of images from clinically indicated chest computed tomography scans. We analyzed patients without RA-ILD at baseline. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for RA-ILD, using annually updated DAS28 data, with adjustment for known RA-ILD risk factors (age, sex, smoking status, RA duration, and serologic status). We performed alternative analyses that did not censor at the time of missing DAS28 data and included adjustment for use of methotrexate, use of glucocorticoids, presence of bone erosions, and presence of rheumatoid nodules.ResultsAmong 1,419 participants, the mean ± SD age was 55.8 ± 14.2 years, and 68.6% were seropositive for either cyclic citrullinated peptide or rheumatoid factor. We identified 85 incident cases of RA-ILD during a mean ± SD follow-up duration of 8.9 ± 4.2 years per patient. The moderate/high disease activity group had a multivariable HR of 2.22 (95% CI 1.28-3.82) for RA-ILD compared to the remission/low disease activity group. Risk of RA-ILD increased across disease activity categories: multivariable HR 1.00 (reference) for remission, 1.41 (95% CI 0.61-3.28) for low disease activity, 2.08 (95% CI 1.06-4.05) for moderate disease activity, and 3.48 (95% CI 1.64-7.38) for high disease activity (P for trend = 0.001). For each unit increase in the DAS28, the risk of RA-ILD increased by 35% (95% CI 14-60%). Results were similar in analyses that included follow-up for missing DAS28 data and with adjustment for use of methotrexate, use of glucocorticoids, presence of bone erosions, or presence of rheumatoid nodules.ConclusionActive articular RA was associated with an increased risk of developing RA-ILD. These results suggest that decreasing systemic inflammation may alter the natural history of RA-ILD development.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:Most patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) strive to consolidate their treatment from methotrexate combinations. The objective of this analysis was to identify patients with RA most likely to achieve remission with tocilizumab (TCZ) monotherapy by developing and validating a prediction model and associated remission score. METHODS:We identified four TCZ monotherapy randomized controlled trials in RA and chose two for derivation and two for internal validation. Remission was defined as a Clinical Disease Activity Index score less than 2.8 at 24 weeks post randomization. We used logistic regression to assess the association between each predictor and remission. After selecting variables and assessing model performance in the derivation data set, we assessed model performance in the validation data set. The cohorts were combined to calculate a remission prediction score. RESULTS:The variables selected included younger age, male sex, lower baseline Clinical Disease Activity Index score, shorter RA disease duration, region of the world (Europe and South America [increased odds of remission] versus Asia and North America), no previous exposure to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and/or methotrexate, lower baseline Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index score, and baseline hematocrit. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.739 in the derivation data set and 0.756 in the validation data set. Patients were categorized into three remission prediction categories based on the remission prediction score: 40% in the low (less than 10% probability of remission), 45% in the intermediate (10%-25% probability), and 15% in the moderate remission prediction category (greater than 25% probability). CONCLUSION:We used easily accessible factors to develop a remission prediction score to predict RA remission at 24 weeks after initializing TCZ monotherapy. These results may provide guidance to clinicians tailoring treatment options based on clinical characteristics.

Dataset Information

Predicting drug-free remission in rheumatoid arthritis: A prospective interventional cohort study.

Publications

Predicting drug-free remission in rheumatoid arthritis: A prospective interventional cohort study.

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