Dataset Information

On simulating cold-stunned sea turtle strandings on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

ABSTRACT: Kemp's ridley sea turtles were on the verge of extinction in the 1960s. While these sea turtles have slowly recovered, they are still critically endangered. In the last few years, the number of strandings on the beaches of Cape Cod, Massachusetts has increased by nearly an order of magnitude relative to preceding decades. This study uses a combination of ocean observations and a well-respected ocean model to investigate the causes and transport of cold-stunned sea turtles in Cape Cod Bay. After validating the model using satellite-tracked drifters and local temperature moorings, ocean currents were examined in Cape Cod Bay in an attempt to explain stranding locations as observed by volunteers and, for some years, backtracking was conducted to examine the potential source regions. The general finding of this study is that sub 10.5°C water temperatures in combination with persistently strong wind stress (>0.4 Pa), results in increased strandings along particular sections of the coast and are dependent on the wind direction. However, it is still uncertain where in the water column the majority of cold-stunned turtles reside and, if many of them are on the surface, considerable work will need to be done to incorporate the direct effects of wind and waves on the advective processes.

SUBMITTER: Liu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6892539 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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On simulating cold-stunned sea turtle strandings on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Liu Xiaojian X Manning James J Prescott Robert R Page Felicia F Zou Huimin H Faherty Mark M

PloS one 20191204 12

Kemp's ridley sea turtles were on the verge of extinction in the 1960s. While these sea turtles have slowly recovered, they are still critically endangered. In the last few years, the number of strandings on the beaches of Cape Cod, Massachusetts has increased by nearly an order of magnitude relative to preceding decades. This study uses a combination of ocean observations and a well-respected ocean model to investigate the causes and transport of cold-stunned sea turtles in Cape Cod Bay. After ...[more]

PMID: 31800593

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Project description:The reasons for elevated breast cancer rates in the upper Cape Cod area of Massachusetts remain unknown despite several epidemiological studies that investigated possible environmental risk factors. Data from two of these population-based case-control studies provide geocoded residential histories and information on confounders, creating an invaluable dataset for spatial-temporal analysis of participants' residency over five decades.The combination of statistical modeling and mapping is a powerful tool for visualizing disease risk in a spatial-temporal analysis. Advances in geographic information systems (GIS) enable spatial analytic techniques in public health studies previously not feasible. Generalized additive models (GAMs) are an effective approach for modeling spatial and temporal distributions of data, combining a number of desirable features including smoothing of geographical location, residency duration, or calendar years; the ability to estimate odds ratios (ORs) while adjusting for confounders; selection of optimum degree of smoothing (span size); hypothesis testing; and use of standard software. We conducted a spatial-temporal analysis of breast cancer case-control data using GAMs and GIS to determine the association between participants' residential history during 1947-1993 and the risk of breast cancer diagnosis during 1983-1993. We considered geographic location alone in a two-dimensional space-only analysis. Calendar year, represented by the earliest year a participant lived in the study area, and residency duration in the study area were modeled individually in one-dimensional time-only analyses, and together in a two-dimensional time-only analysis. We also analyzed space and time together by applying a two-dimensional GAM for location to datasets of overlapping calendar years. The resulting series of maps created a movie which allowed us to visualize changes in magnitude, geographic size, and location of elevated breast cancer risk for the 40 years of residential history that was smoothed over space and time.The space-only analysis showed statistically significant increased areas of breast cancer risk in the northern part of upper Cape Cod and decreased areas of breast cancer risk in the southern part (p-value = 0.04; ORs: 0.90-1.40). There was also a significant association between breast cancer risk and calendar year (p-value = 0.05; ORs: 0.53-1.38), with earlier calendar years resulting in higher risk. The results of the one-dimensional analysis of residency duration and the two-dimensional analysis of calendar year and duration showed that the risk of breast cancer increased with increasing residency duration, but results were not statistically significant. When we considered space and time together, the maps showed a large area of statistically significant elevated risk for breast cancer near the Massachusetts Military Reservation (p-value range:0.02-0.05; ORs range: 0.25-2.5). This increased risk began with residences in the late 1940s and remained consistent in size and location through the late 1950s.Spatial-temporal analysis of the breast cancer data may help identify new exposure hypotheses that warrant future epidemiologic investigations with detailed exposure models. Our methods allow us to visualize breast cancer risk, adjust for known confounders including age at diagnosis or index year, family history of breast cancer, parity and age at first live- or stillbirth, and test for the statistical significance of location and time. Despite the advantages of GAMs, analyses are for exploratory purposes and there are still methodological issues that warrant further research. This paper illustrates that GAM methods are a suitable alternative to widely-used cluster detection methods and may be preferable when residential histories from existing epidemiological studies are available.

Project description:BackgroundHumans are primary drivers of environmental contamination worldwide, including in drinking-water resources. In the United States (US), federal and state agencies regulate and monitor public-supply drinking water while private-supply monitoring is rare; the current lack of directly comparable information on contaminant-mixture exposures and risks between private- and public-supplies undermines tapwater (TW) consumer decision-making.MethodsWe compared private- and public-supply residential point-of-use TW at Cape Cod, Massachusetts, where both supplies share the same groundwater source. TW from 10 private- and 10 public-supply homes was analyzed for 487 organic, 38 inorganic, 8 microbial indicators, and 3 in vitro bioactivities. Concentrations were compared to existing protective health-based benchmarks, and aggregated Hazard Indices (HI) of regulated and unregulated TW contaminants were calculated along with ratios of in vitro exposure-activity cutoffs.ResultsSeventy organic and 28 inorganic constituents were detected in TW. Median detections were comparable, but median cumulative concentrations were substantially higher in public supply due to 6 chlorine-disinfected samples characterized by disinfection byproducts and corresponding lower heterotrophic plate counts. Public-supply applicable maximum contaminant (nitrate) and treatment action (lead and copper) levels were exceeded in private-supply TW samples only. Exceedances of health-based HI screening levels of concern were common to both TW supplies.DiscussionThese Cape Cod results indicate comparable cumulative human-health concerns from contaminant exposures in private- and public-supply TW in a shared source-water setting. Importantly, although this study's analytical coverage exceeds that currently feasible for water purveyors or homeowners, it nevertheless is a substantial underestimation of the full breadth of contaminant mixtures documented in the environment and potentially present in drinking water.ConclusionRegardless of the supply, increased public engagement in source-water protection and drinking-water treatment, including consumer point-of-use treatment, is warranted to reduce risks associated with long-term TW contaminant exposures, especially in vulnerable populations.

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Dataset Information

On simulating cold-stunned sea turtle strandings on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

Publications

On simulating cold-stunned sea turtle strandings on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

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