Dataset Information

Primary care risk stratification in COPD using routinely collected data: a secondary data analysis.

ABSTRACT: Most clinical contacts with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients take place in primary care, presenting opportunity for proactive clinical management. Electronic health records could be used to risk stratify diagnosed patients in this setting, but may be limited by poor data quality or completeness. We developed a risk stratification database algorithm using the DOSE index (Dyspnoea, Obstruction, Smoking and Exacerbation) with routinely collected primary care data, aiming to calculate up to three repeated risk scores per patient over five years, each separated by at least one year. Among 10,393 patients with diagnosed COPD, sufficient primary care data were present to calculate at least one risk score for 77.4%, and the maximum of three risk scores for 50.6%. Linked secondary care data revealed primary care under-recording of hospital exacerbations, which translated to a slight, non-significant cohort average risk score reduction, and an understated risk group allocation for less than 1% of patients. Algorithmic calculation of the DOSE index is possible using primary care data, and appears robust to the absence of linked secondary care data, if unavailable. The DOSE index appears a simple and practical means of incorporating risk stratification into the routine primary care of COPD patients, but further research is needed to evaluate its clinical utility in this setting. Although secondary analysis of routinely collected primary care data could benefit clinicians, patients and the health system, standardised data collection and improved data quality and completeness are also needed.

SUBMITTER: Johnson M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6892877 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Primary care risk stratification in COPD using routinely collected data: a secondary data analysis.

Johnson Matthew M Rigge Lucy L Culliford David D Josephs Lynn L Thomas Mike M Wilkinson Tom T

NPJ primary care respiratory medicine 20191204 1

Most clinical contacts with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients take place in primary care, presenting opportunity for proactive clinical management. Electronic health records could be used to risk stratify diagnosed patients in this setting, but may be limited by poor data quality or completeness. We developed a risk stratification database algorithm using the DOSE index (Dyspnoea, Obstruction, Smoking and Exacerbation) with routinely collected primary care data, aiming to cal ...[more]

PMID: 31797867

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Project description:Introduction: Achieving equity in health care remains a challenge for health care systems worldwide and marked inequities in access and quality of care persist. Identifying health care equity indicators is an important first step in integrating the concept of equity into assessments of health care system performance, particularly in emergency care. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of administrative data-derived health care equity indicators and their association with socioeconomic determinants of health (SEDH) in emergency care settings. Following PRISMA-Equity reporting guidelines, Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, and Web of Science were searched for relevant studies. The outcomes of interest were indicators of health care equity and the associated SEDH they examine. Results: Among 29 studies identified, 14 equity indicators were identified and grouped into four categories that reflect the patient emergency care pathway. Total emergency department (ED) visits and ambulatory care-sensitive condition-related ED visits were the two most frequently used equity indicators. The studies analyzed equity based on seven SEDH: social deprivation, income, education level, social class, insurance coverage, health literacy, and financial and nonfinancial barriers. Despite some conflicting results, all identified SEDH are associated with inequalities in access to and use of emergency care. Conclusion: The use of administrative data-derived indicators in combination with identified SEDH could improve the measurement of health care equity in emergency care settings across health care systems worldwide. Using a combination of indicators is likely to lead to a more comprehensive, well-rounded measurement of health care equity than using any one indicator in isolation. Although studies analyzed focused on emergency care settings, it seems possible to extrapolate these indicators to measure equity in other areas of the health care system. Further studies elucidating root causes of health inequities in and outside the health care system are needed.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor. METHODS:We identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO). RESULTS:Fifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60). CONCLUSION:The BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care.

Dataset Information

Primary care risk stratification in COPD using routinely collected data: a secondary data analysis.

Publications

Primary care risk stratification in COPD using routinely collected data: a secondary data analysis.

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