Dataset Information

Population-Based Brain Tumor Survival Analysis via Spatial- and Temporal-Smoothing.

ABSTRACT: In cancer research, population-based survival analysis has played an important role. In this article, we conduct survival analysis on patients with brain tumors using the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database from the NCI (National Cancer Institute). It has been recognized that cancer survival models have spatial and temporal variations which are caused by multiple factors, but such variations are usually not "abrupt" (that is, they should be smooth). As such, spatially and temporally pooling all data and analyzing each spatial/temporal point separately are either inappropriate or ineffective. In this article, we develop and implement a spatial- and temporal-smoothing technique, which can effectively accommodate spatial/temporal variations and realize information borrowing across spatial/temporal points. Simulation demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed approach in improving estimation. Data on a total of 123,571 patients with brain tumors diagnosed between 1911 and 2010 from 16 SEER sites is analyzed. Findings different from separate estimation and simple pooling are made. Overall, this study may provide a practically useful way for modeling the survival of brain tumor (and other cancers) using population data.

SUBMITTER: Ma C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6895900 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Population-Based Brain Tumor Survival Analysis via Spatial- and Temporal-Smoothing.

Ma Chenjin C Xue Yuan Y Ma Shuangge S

Cancers 20191105 11

In cancer research, population-based survival analysis has played an important role. In this article, we conduct survival analysis on patients with brain tumors using the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database from the NCI (National Cancer Institute). It has been recognized that cancer survival models have spatial and temporal variations which are caused by multiple factors, but such variations are usually not "abrupt" (that is, they should be smooth). As such, spatially and ...[more]

PMID: 31694302

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Project description:Neuroimaging methods with enhanced spatial resolution such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) suggest that the subcortical striatum plays a critical role in human reward processing. Analysis of FMRI data requires several preprocessing steps, some of which entail tradeoffs. For instance, while spatial smoothing can enhance statistical power, it may also bias localization towards regions that contain more gray than white matter. In a meta-analysis and reanalysis of an existing dataset, we sought to determine whether spatial smoothing could systematically bias the spatial localization of foci related to reward anticipation in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc). An activation likelihood estimate (ALE) meta-analysis revealed that peak ventral striatal ALE foci for studies that used smaller spatial smoothing kernels (i.e. <6mm FWHM) were more anterior than those identified for studies that used larger kernels (i.e. >7mm FWHM). Additionally, subtraction analysis of findings for studies that used smaller versus larger smoothing kernels revealed a significant cluster of differential activity in the left relatively anterior NAcc (Talairach coordinates: -10, 9, -1). A second meta-analysis revealed that larger smoothing kernels were correlated with more posterior localizations of NAcc activation foci (p<0.015), but revealed no significant associations with other potentially relevant parameters (including voxel volume, magnet strength, and publication date). Finally, repeated analysis of a representative dataset processed at different smoothing kernels (i.e., 0-12mm) also indicated that smoothing systematically yielded more posterior activation foci in the NAcc (p<0.005). Taken together, these findings indicate that spatial smoothing can systematically bias the spatial localization of striatal activity. These findings have implications both for historical interpretation of past findings related to reward processing and for the analysis of future studies.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Many methods of spatial smoothing have been developed, for both point data as well as areal data. In Bayesian spatial models, this is achieved by purposefully designed prior(s) or smoothing functions which smooth estimates towards a local or global mean. Smoothing is important for several reasons, not least of all because it increases predictive robustness and reduces uncertainty of the estimates. Despite the benefits of smoothing, this attribute is all but ignored when it comes to model selection. Traditional goodness-of-fit measures focus on model fit and model parsimony, but neglect "goodness-of-smoothing", and are therefore not necessarily good indicators of model performance. Comparing spatial models while taking into account the degree of spatial smoothing is not straightforward because smoothing and model fit can be viewed as opposing goals. Over- and under-smoothing of spatial data are genuine concerns, but have received very little attention in the literature. METHODS:This paper demonstrates the problem with spatial model selection based solely on goodness-of-fit by proposing several methods for quantifying the degree of smoothing. Several commonly used spatial models are fit to real data, and subsequently compared using the goodness-of-fit and goodness-of-smoothing statistics. RESULTS:The proposed goodness-of-smoothing statistics show substantial agreement in the task of model selection, and tend to avoid models that over- or under-smooth. Conversely, the traditional goodness-of-fit criteria often don't agree, and can lead to poor model choice. In particular, the well-known deviance information criterion tended to select under-smoothed models. CONCLUSIONS:Some of the goodness-of-smoothing methods may be improved with modifications and better guidelines for their interpretation. However, these proposed goodness-of-smoothing methods offer researchers a solution to spatial model selection which is easy to implement. Moreover, they highlight the danger in relying on goodness-of-fit measures when comparing spatial models.

Dataset Information

Population-Based Brain Tumor Survival Analysis via Spatial- and Temporal-Smoothing.

Publications

Population-Based Brain Tumor Survival Analysis via Spatial- and Temporal-Smoothing.

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