Dataset Information

A multipredictor model to predict the conversion of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease by using a predictive nomogram.

ABSTRACT: Predicting the probability of converting from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is still a challenging task. This study aims at providing a personalized MCI-to-AD conversion estimation by using a multipredictor nomogram that integrates neuroimaging features, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker, and clinical assessments. To do so, 290 MCI patients were collected from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), of whom 76 has converted to AD and 214 remained with MCI. All subjects were randomly divided into a primary and validation cohort. Radiomics signature (Rad-sig) was obtained based on 17 cerebral cortex features selected by using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm. Clinical factors and amyloid-beta peptide (A?) concentration were selected by using Spearman correlation between the converted and not-converted patients. Then, a nomogram that combines image features, clinical factor, and A? concentration was constructed and validated. Furthermore, we explored the associations between various predictors from the macro- to the microperspective by assessing gene expression patterns. Our results showed that the multipredictor nomogram (C-index 0.978 and 0.956 in both cohorts, respectively) outperformed the nomogram using either Rad-sig or A? concentration as individual predictors. Significant associations were found between neuropsychological scores, cerebral cortex features, A? levels, and underlying gene pathways. Our study may have a clinical impact as a powerful predictive tool for predicting the conversion probability of MCI and providing associations between cognitive impairment, structural changes, A? levels, and underlying biological patterns from the macro- to the microperspective.

SUBMITTER: Huang K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6901533 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A multipredictor model to predict the conversion of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease by using a predictive nomogram.

Huang Kexin K Lin Yanyan Y Yang Lifeng L Wang Yubo Y Cai Suping S Pang Liaojun L Wu Xiaoming X Huang Liyu L

Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology 20191021 2

Predicting the probability of converting from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is still a challenging task. This study aims at providing a personalized MCI-to-AD conversion estimation by using a multipredictor nomogram that integrates neuroimaging features, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker, and clinical assessments. To do so, 290 MCI patients were collected from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), of whom 76 has converted to AD and 214 remained w ...[more]

PMID: 31634898

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Project description:Predicting progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is clinically important. In this study, we propose a dual-model radiomic analysis with multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models to investigate promising risk factors associated with MCI conversion to AD. T1 structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) data, from the AD Neuroimaging Initiative database, were collected from 131 patients with MCI who converted to AD within 3 years and 132 patients with MCI without conversion within 3 years. These subjects were randomly partition into 70% training dataset and 30% test dataset with multiple times. We fused MRI and PET images by wavelet method. In a subset of subjects, a group comparison was performed using a two-sample t-test to determine regions of interest (ROIs) associated with MCI conversion. 172 radiomic features from ROIs for each individual were established using a published radiomics tool. Finally, L1-penalized Cox model was constructed and Harrell's C index (C-index) was used to evaluate prediction accuracy of the model. To evaluate the efficacy of our proposed method, we used a same analysis framework to evaluate MRI and PET data separately. We constructed prognostic Cox models with: clinical data, MRI images, PET images, fused MRI/PET images, and clinical variables and fused MRI/PET images in combination. The experimental results showed that captured ROIs significantly associated with conversion to AD, such as gray matter atrophy in the bilateral hippocampus and hypometabolism in the temporoparietal cortex. Imaging model (MRI/PET/fused) provided significant enhancement in prediction of conversion compared to clinical models, especially the fused-modality Cox model. Moreover, the combination of fused-modality imaging and clinical variables resulted in the greatest accuracy of prediction. The average C-index for the clinical/MRI/PET/fused/combined model in the test dataset was 0.69, 0.73, 0.73 and 0.75, and 0.78, respectively. These results suggested that a combination of radiomic analysis and Cox model analyses could be used successfully in survival analysis and may be powerful tools for personalized precision medicine patients with potential to undergo conversion from MCI to AD.

Project description:Multiple biomarkers can capture different facets of Alzheimer's disease. However, statistical models of biomarkers to predict outcomes in Alzheimer's rarely model nonlinear interactions between these measures. Here, we used Gaussian Processes to address this, modelling nonlinear interactions to predict progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's over 3 years, using Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data. Measures included: demographics, APOE4 genotype, CSF (amyloid-β42, total tau, phosphorylated tau), [18F ]florbetapir, hippocampal volume and brain-age. We examined: (a) the independent value of each biomarker; and (b) whether modelling nonlinear interactions between biomarkers improved predictions. Each measured added complementary information when predicting conversion to Alzheimer's. A linear model classifying stable from progressive MCI explained over half the variance (R2 = 0.51, p < .001); the strongest independently contributing biomarker was hippocampal volume (R2 = 0.13). When comparing sensitivity of different models to progressive MCI (independent biomarker models, additive models, nonlinear interaction models), we observed a significant improvement (p < .001) for various two-way interaction models. The best performing model included an interaction between amyloid-β-PET and P-tau, while accounting for hippocampal volume (sensitivity = 0.77, AUC = 0.826). Closely related biomarkers contributed uniquely to predict conversion to Alzheimer's. Nonlinear biomarker interactions were also implicated, and results showed that although for some patients adding additional biomarkers may add little value (i.e., when hippocampal volume is high), for others (i.e., with low hippocampal volume) further invasive and expensive examination may be warranted. Our framework enables visualisation of these interactions, in individual patient biomarker 'space', providing information for personalised or stratified healthcare or clinical trial design.

Dataset Information

A multipredictor model to predict the conversion of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease by using a predictive nomogram.

Publications

A multipredictor model to predict the conversion of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer's disease by using a predictive nomogram.

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