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A novel scoring system to predict the requirement for surgical intervention in victims of motor vehicle crashes: Development and validation using independent cohorts.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Given that there are still considerable number of facilities which lack surgical specialists round the clock across the world, the ability to estimate the requirement for emergency surgery in victims of motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) can ensure appropriate resource allocation. In this study, a surgical intervention in victims of MVC (SIM) score was developed and validated, using independent patient cohorts. METHODS:We retrospectively identified MVC victims in a nationwide trauma registry (2004-2016). Adults ? 15 years who presented with palpable pulse were included. Patients with missing data on the type/date of surgery were excluded. Patient were allocated to development or validation cohorts based on the date of injury. After missing values were imputed, predictors of the need for emergency thoracotomy and/or laparotomy were identified with multivariate logistic regression, and scores were then assigned using odds ratios. The SIM score was validated with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration plots of SIM score-derived probability and observed rates of emergency surgery. RESULTS:We assigned 13,328 and 12,348 patients to the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Age, motor vehicle collision and vital signs on hospital arrival were identified as independent predictors for emergency thoracotomy and/or laparotomy, and SIM score was developed as 0-9 scales. The score has a good discriminatory power (AUROC = 0.79; 95% confidence interval = 0.77-0.81), and both estimated and observed rates of emergency surgery increased stepwise from 1% at a score ? 1 to almost 40% at a score ? 8 with linear calibration plots. CONCLUSIONS:The SIM score was developed and validated to accurately estimate the need for emergent thoracotomy and/or laparotomy in MVC victims.

SUBMITTER: Yamamoto R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6903719 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A novel scoring system to predict the requirement for surgical intervention in victims of motor vehicle crashes: Development and validation using independent cohorts.

Yamamoto Ryo R Kurihara Tomohiro T Sasaki Junichi J

PloS one 20191210 12

<h4>Background</h4>Given that there are still considerable number of facilities which lack surgical specialists round the clock across the world, the ability to estimate the requirement for emergency surgery in victims of motor vehicle crashes (MVCs) can ensure appropriate resource allocation. In this study, a surgical intervention in victims of MVC (SIM) score was developed and validated, using independent patient cohorts.<h4>Methods</h4>We retrospectively identified MVC victims in a nationwide ...[more]

PMID: 31821375

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Project description:BackgroundThere is growing evidence that a range of pre-injury, injury related and post-injury factors influence social and health outcomes across the injury severity spectrum. This paper documents health related outcomes for people with mild, moderate and severe injury after motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries in New South Wales, Australia.MethodsThis inception cohort study followed 2019 people injured in MVCs, for 6 and 12 months post-injury. We categorised moderate injury as hospital length-of-stay (LOS) of 2-6 days and Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 4-11, while severe injury as LOS ≥7 days or ISS ≥ 12. We examined differences in paid work status, 12-Item Short Form Survey (SF12), EQ-5D and World Health Organisation Disability Assessment Schedule II (WHODAS) outcomes longitudinally from baseline to 12 months between levels of injury severity using linear mixed models for repeated measures. We first considered minimally sufficient adjustment factors (age, sex, crash role, perceived danger in crash, pre-injury health, pre-injury EQ-5D, recruitment source), and then more extensive adjustments including post-injury factors. The presence of mediating pathways for SF-12 Physical Component Summary (PCS) and Mental Component Summary (MCS) via post-injury factors was evaluated.ResultsBased on hospital length of stay (LOS), 25 and 10% of participants sustained moderate and severe injuries, respectively, while 43 and 4% had these injuries based on ISS. Twelve months post-injury LOS ≥7 days versus ≤1 day was associated with an estimated 9 units lower mean SF12 PCS using a minimally sufficient adjustment model, and LOS ≥ 7 days was associated with a 3 units lower mean SF12 MCS score. Mediation analyses (LOS ≥ 7 days vs ≤1 day) found for SF12 MCS outcomes, effects of injury severity were small and mostly indirect (direct effect - 0.03, indirect effect - 0.22). Whereas for SF12 PCS outcomes the effect of having a more severe injury rather than mild were both direct and indirect (direct effect - 0.50, indirect effect - 0.38).ConclusionsIndividuals with severe injuries (those with LOS ≥ 7 days and ISS 12+) had poorer recovery 12 months after the injury. In addition, post-injury mediators have an important role in influencing long-term health outcomes.Trial registrationAustralia New Zealand Clinical trial registry identification number - ACTRN12613000889752 .

Dataset Information

A novel scoring system to predict the requirement for surgical intervention in victims of motor vehicle crashes: Development and validation using independent cohorts.

Publications

A novel scoring system to predict the requirement for surgical intervention in victims of motor vehicle crashes: Development and validation using independent cohorts.

Similar Datasets

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