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Determining the post-elimination level of vaccination needed to prevent re-establishment of dog rabies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Once a canine rabies-free status has been achieved, there is little guidance available on vaccination standards to maintain that status. In areas with risk of reintroduction, it may be practical to continue vaccinating portions of susceptible dogs to prevent re-establishment of canine rabies. METHODS:We used a modified version of RabiesEcon, a deterministic mathematical model, to evaluate the potential impacts and cost-effectiveness of preventing the reintroduction of canine rabies through proactive dog vaccination. We analyzed four scenarios to simulate varying risk levels involving the reintroduction of canine rabies into an area where it is no longer present. In a sensitivity analysis, we examined the influences of reintroduction frequency and intensity, the density of susceptible dog population, dog birth rate, dog life expectancy, vaccine efficacy, rate of loss of vaccine immunity, and the basic reproduction number (R0). RESULTS:To prevent the re-establishment of canine rabies, it is necessary to vaccinate 38% to 56% of free-roaming dogs that have no immunity to rabies. These coverage levels were most sensitive to adjustments in R0 followed by the vaccine efficacy and the rate of loss of vaccine immunity. Among the various preventive vaccination strategies, it was most cost-effective to continue dog vaccination at the minimum coverage required, with the average cost per human death averted ranging from $257 to $398 USD. CONCLUSIONS:Without strong surveillance systems, rabies-free countries are vulnerable to becoming endemic when incursions happen. To prevent this, it may be necessary to vaccinate at least 38% to 56% of the susceptible dog population depending on the risk of reintroduction and transmission dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Jeon S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6907870 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Determining the post-elimination level of vaccination needed to prevent re-establishment of dog rabies.

Jeon Seonghye S Cleaton Julie J Meltzer Martin I MI Kahn Emily B EB Pieracci Emily G EG Blanton Jesse D JD Wallace Ryan R

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20191202 12

<h4>Background</h4>Once a canine rabies-free status has been achieved, there is little guidance available on vaccination standards to maintain that status. In areas with risk of reintroduction, it may be practical to continue vaccinating portions of susceptible dogs to prevent re-establishment of canine rabies.<h4>Methods</h4>We used a modified version of RabiesEcon, a deterministic mathematical model, to evaluate the potential impacts and cost-effectiveness of preventing the reintroduction of c ...[more]

PMID: 31790398

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Project description:BackgroundRabies imposes a substantial burden to about half of the world population. The World Health Organization (WHO), World Organization for Animal Health, and the Food and Agriculture Organization have set the goal of eliminating dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030. This could be achieved largely by massive administration of post-exposure prophylaxis-in perpetuity-, through elimination of dog rabies, or combining both. Here, we focused on the resources needed for the elimination of dog rabies virus by 2030.Materials and methodsDrawing from multiple datasets, including national dog vaccination campaigns, rabies literature, and expert opinion, we developed a model considering country-specific current dog vaccination capacity to estimate the years and resources required to achieve dog rabies elimination by 2030. Resources were determined based on four factors: (a) country development status, (b) dog vaccination costs, (c) dog rabies vaccine availability, and (d) existing animal health workers. Our calculations were based on the WHO's estimate that vaccinating 70% of the dog population for seven consecutive years would eliminate rabies.FindingsIf dog rabies vaccine production remains at 2015 levels, we estimate that there will be a cumulative shortage of about 7.5 billion doses to meet expected demand to achieve dog rabies elimination. We estimated a present cost of $6,300 million to eliminate dog rabies in all endemic countries, equivalent to a $3,900 million gap compared to current spending. To eliminate dog rabies, the vaccination workforce may suffice if all public health veterinarians in endemic countries were to dedicate 3 months each year to dog rabies vaccination. We discuss implications of potential technology improvements, including population management, vaccine price reduction, and increases in dog-vaccinating capacities.ConclusionOur results highlight the resources needed to achieve elimination of dog-mediated human rabies deaths by 2030. As exemplified by multiple successful disease elimination efforts, one size does not fit all. We suggest pragmatic and feasible options toward global dog rabies elimination by 2030, while identifying several benefits and drawbacks of specific approaches. We hope that these results help stimulate and inform a necessary discussion on global and regional strategic planning, resource mobilization, and continuous execution of rabies virus elimination.

Project description:Dog rabies annually causes 24,000-70,000 deaths globally. We built a spreadsheet tool, RabiesEcon, to aid public health officials to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dog rabies vaccination programs in East Africa.RabiesEcon uses a mathematical model of dog-dog and dog-human rabies transmission to estimate dog rabies cases averted, the cost per human rabies death averted and cost per year of life gained (YLG) due to dog vaccination programs (US 2015 dollars). We used an East African human population of 1 million (approximately 2/3 living in urban setting, 1/3 rural). We considered, using data from the literature, three vaccination options; no vaccination, annual vaccination of 50% of dogs and 20% of dogs vaccinated semi-annually. We assessed 2 transmission scenarios: low (1.2 dogs infected per infectious dog) and high (1.7 dogs infected). We also examined the impact of annually vaccinating 70% of all dogs (World Health Organization recommendation for dog rabies elimination).Without dog vaccination, over 10 years there would a total of be approximately 44,000-65,000 rabid dogs and 2,100-2,900 human deaths. Annually vaccinating 50% of dogs results in 10-year reductions of 97% and 75% in rabid dogs (low and high transmissions scenarios, respectively), approximately 2,000-1,600 human deaths averted, and an undiscounted cost-effectiveness of $451-$385 per life saved. Semi-annual vaccination of 20% of dogs results in in 10-year reductions of 94% and 78% in rabid dogs, and approximately 2,000-1,900 human deaths averted, and cost $404-$305 per life saved. In the low transmission scenario, vaccinating either 50% or 70% of dogs eliminated dog rabies. Results were most sensitive to dog birth rate and the initial rate of dog-to-dog transmission (Ro).Dog rabies vaccination programs can control, and potentially eliminate, dog rabies. The frequency and coverage of vaccination programs, along with the level of dog rabies transmission, can affect the cost-effectiveness of such programs. RabiesEcon can aid both the planning and assessment of dog rabies vaccination programs.

Project description:BackgroundCanine rabies was reintroduced to the city of Arequipa, Peru in March 2015. The Ministry of Health has conducted a series of mass dog vaccination campaigns to contain the outbreak, but canine rabies virus transmission continues in Arequipa's complex urban environment, putting the city's 1 million inhabitants at risk of infection. The proximate driver of canine rabies in Arequipa is low dog vaccination coverage. Our objectives were to qualitatively assess barriers to and facilitators of rabies vaccination during mass campaigns, and to explore strategies to increase participation in future efforts.Methodology/principal findingsWe conducted 8 focus groups (FG) in urban and peri-urban communities of Mariano Melgar district; each FG included both sexes, and campaign participants and non-participants. All FG were transcribed and then coded independently by two coders. Results were summarized using the Social Ecological Model. At the individual level, participants described not knowing enough about rabies and vaccination campaigns, mistrusting the campaign, and being unable to handle their dogs, particularly in peri-urban vs. urban areas. At the interpersonal level, we detected some social pressure to vaccinate dogs, as well as some disparaging of those who invest time and money in pet dogs. At the organizational level, participants found the campaign information to be insufficient and ill-timed, and campaign locations and personnel inadequate. At the community level, the influence of landscape and topography on accessibility to vaccination points was reported differently between participants from the urban and peri-urban areas. Poor security and impermanent housing materials in the peri-urban areas also drives higher prevalence of guard dog ownership for home protection; these dogs usually roam freely on the streets and are more difficult to handle and bring to the vaccination points.ConclusionsA well-designed communication campaign could improve knowledge about canine rabies. Timely messages on where and when vaccination is occurring could increase dog owners' perception of their own ability to bring their dogs to the vaccination points and be part of the campaign. Small changes in the implementation of the campaign at the vaccination points could increase the public's trust and motivation. Location of vaccination points should take into account landscape and community concerns.

Project description:BackgroundRabies still poses a significant human health problem throughout most of Africa, where the majority of the human cases results from dog bites. Mass dog vaccination is considered to be the most effective method to prevent rabies in humans. Our objective was to systematically review research articles on dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage in Africa in relation to dog accessibility and vaccination cost recovery arrangement (i.e.free of charge or owner charged).Methodology/principal findingsA systematic literature search was made in the databases of CAB abstracts (EBSCOhost and OvidSP), Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Medline (EBSCOhost and OvidSP) and AJOL (African Journal Online) for peer reviewed articles on 1) rabies control, 2) dog rabies vaccination coverage and 3) dog demography in Africa. Identified articles were subsequently screened and selected using predefined selection criteria like year of publication (viz. ≥ 1990), type of study (cross sectional), objective(s) of the study (i.e. vaccination coverage rates, dog demographics and financial arrangements of vaccination costs), language of publication (English) and geographical focus (Africa). The selection process resulted in sixteen peer reviewed articles which were used to review dog demography and dog ownership status, and dog rabies vaccination coverage throughout Africa. The main review findings indicate that 1) the majority (up to 98.1%) of dogs in African countries are owned (and as such accessible), 2) puppies younger than 3 months of age constitute a considerable proportion (up to 30%) of the dog population and 3) male dogs are dominating in numbers (up to 3.6 times the female dog population). Dog rabies parenteral vaccination coverage was compared between "free of charge" and "owner charged" vaccination schemes by the technique of Meta-analysis. Results indicate that the rabies vaccination coverage following a free of charge vaccination scheme (68%) is closer to the World Health Organization recommended coverage rate (70%) than the achieved coverage rate in owner-charged dog rabies vaccination schemes (18%).Conclusions/significanceMost dogs in Africa are owned and accessible for parenteral vaccination against rabies if the campaign is performed "free of charge".

Dataset Information

Determining the post-elimination level of vaccination needed to prevent re-establishment of dog rabies.

Publications

Determining the post-elimination level of vaccination needed to prevent re-establishment of dog rabies.

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