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Long-Term Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography in an Asymptomatic Elderly Population.

ABSTRACT: Background The prognostic value of coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) for evaluating coronary artery disease in asymptomatic older adults is controversial. We investigated the prognostic value of CCTA in community-dwelling elderly Koreans. Methods and Results Participants (n=470; mean age: 75.1±7.3 years) who underwent CCTA were enrolled from KLoSHA (Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging), a community-based prospective cohort. Using CCTA, coronary artery disease was classified as normal, nonobstructive, or obstructive according to the presence of 0%, <50%, or ≥50% stenosis, respectively. Coronary artery calcium scores were investigated together with Framingham risk score, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease score, and individual risk factors. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as a composite of cardiac event-related death or nonfatal myocardial infarction. During a median follow-up of 8.2 years (interquartile range: 7.7-10.1 years), MACE occurred in 24 participants (5.1%). Compared with the normal group, participants in the obstructive group showed higher incidence of MACE (hazard ratio: 5.65; 95% CI, 1.22-26.16; P=0.027), whereas there were no significant differences in MACE between the normal and nonobstructive groups. The 8-year event-free survival rates were 98.1±1.1%, 94.9±1.6%, and 81.7±4.8% in the normal, nonobstructive, and obstructive groups, respectively. Compared with the Framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score model, CCTA improved risk prediction by C-index (from 0.698 to 0.749) and category-free net reclassification index (0.478; P=0.022). Conclusions CCTA showed better long-term prognostic value for MACE than coronary artery calcium score in this asymptomatic older population.

SUBMITTER: Moon SJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6912986 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundCoronary magnetic resonance angiography (CMRA) allows non-ionizing visualization of luminal narrowing in coronary artery disease (CAD). Although a prior study showed the usefulness of CMRA for risk stratification in short-term follow-up, the long-term prognostic value of CMRA remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the long-term prognostic value of CMRA.MethodsA total of 506 patients without history of myocardial infarction or prior coronary artery revascularization underwent free-breathing whole-heart CMRA between 2009 and 2015. Images were acquired using a 1.5 T or 3 T scanner and visually evaluated as the consensus decisions of two observers. Obstructive CAD on CMRA was defined as luminal narrowing of ≥ 50% in at least one coronary artery. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) comprised cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and unstable angina.ResultsObstructive CAD on CMRA was observed in 214 patients (42%). During follow-up (median, 5.6 years), 31 MACE occurred. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis revealed a significant difference in event-free survival between patients with and without obstructive CAD for MACE (log-rank, p = 0.003) and cardiac death (p = 0.012). Annualized event rates for MACE in patients with no obstructive CAD, 1-vessel disease, 2-vessel disease, and left-main or 3-vessel disease were 0.6%, 1.5%, 2.3%, and 3.6%, respectively (log-rank, p = 0.003). Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that, among obstructive CAD on CMRA and clinical risk factors (age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, and family history of CAD), obstructive CAD and diabetes were significant predictors of MACE (hazard ratios, 2.9 [p = 0.005] and 2.2 [p = 0.034], respectively). In multivariate analysis, obstructive CAD remained an independent predictor (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.6 [p = 0.010]) after adjusting for diabetes. Addition of obstructive CAD to clinical risk factors significantly increased the global chi-square result from 8.3 to 13.8 (p = 0.022).ConclusionsIn long-term follow-up, free breathing whole heart CMRA allows non-invasive risk stratification for MACE and cardiac death and provides incremental prognostic value over conventional risk factors in patients without a history of myocardial infarction or prior coronary artery revascularization. The presence and severity of obstructive CAD detected by CMRA were associated with worse prognosis. Importantly, patients without obstructive CAD on CMRA displayed favorable prognosis.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) is currently utilized as the frontline test to accurately diagnose coronary artery disease (CAD) in clinical practice, there are still debates regarding its use as a screening tool for the asymptomatic population. Using deep learning (DL), we sought to develop a prediction model for significant coronary artery stenosis on CCTA and identify the individuals who would benefit from undergoing CCTA among apparently healthy asymptomatic adults.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed 11,180 individuals who underwent CCTA as part of routine health check-ups between 2012 and 2019. The main outcome was the presence of coronary artery stenosis of ≥70% on CCTA. We developed a prediction model using machine learning (ML), including DL. Its performance was compared with pretest probabilities, including the pooled cohort equation (PCE), CAD consortium, and updated Diamond-Forrester (UDF) scores.ResultsIn the cohort of 11,180 apparently healthy asymptomatic individuals (mean age 56.1 years; men 69.8%), 516 (4.6%) presented with significant coronary artery stenosis on CCTA. Among the ML methods employed, a neural network with multi-task learning (19 selected features), one of the DL methods, was selected due to its superior performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.782 and a high diagnostic accuracy of 71.6%. Our DL-based model demonstrated a better prediction than the PCE (AUC, 0.719), CAD consortium score (AUC, 0.696), and UDF score (AUC, 0.705). Age, sex, HbA1c, and HDL cholesterol were highly ranked features. Personal education and monthly income levels were also included as important features of the model.ConclusionWe successfully developed the neural network with multi-task learning for the detection of CCTA-derived stenosis of ≥70% in asymptomatic populations. Our findings suggest that this model may provide more precise indications for the use of CCTA as a screening tool to identify individuals at a higher risk, even in asymptomatic populations, in clinical practice.

Project description:PURPOSE:Quantitative computed tomography (QCT) provides important prognostic information of coronary atherosclerosis. We investigated intraobserver and interobserver QCT reproducibility in asymptomatic individuals, patients with acute chest pain without acute coronary syndrome (ACS), and patients with acute chest pain and ACS. METHODS:Fifty patients from each cohort, scanned between 01/02/2010-14/11/2013 and matched according to age and gender, were retrospectively assessed for inclusion. Patients with no coronary artery disease, previous coronary artery bypass graft surgery, and poor image quality were excluded. Coronary atherosclerosis was measured semi-automatically by 2 readers. Reproducibility of minimal lumen area (MLA), minimal lumen diameter (MLD), area stenosis, diameter stenosis, vessel remodeling, plaque eccentricity, plaque burden, and plaque volumes was assessed using concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), Bland-Altman, coefficient of variation, and Cohen's kappa. RESULTS:A total of 84 patients (63 matched) were included. Intraobserver and interobserver reproducibility estimates were acceptable for MLA (CCC = 0.94 and CCC = 0.91, respectively), MLD (CCC = 0.92 and CCC = 0.86, respectively), plaque burden (CCC = 0.86 and CCC = 0.80, respectively), and plaque volume (CCC = 0.97 and CCC = 0.95, respectively). QCT detected area and diameter stenosis ?50%, positive remodeling, and eccentric plaque with moderate-good intraobserver and interobserver reproducibility (kappa: 0.64-0.66, 0.69-0.76, 0.46-0.48, and 0.41-0.62, respectively). Reproducibility of plaque composition decreased with decreasing plaque density (intraobserver and interobserver CCC for dense calcium (>0.99; 0.98), fibrotic (0.96; 0.93), fibro-fatty (0.95; 0.91), and necrotic core tissue (0.89; 0.84). Reproducibility generally decreased with worsening clinical risk profile. CONCLUSIONS:Semi-automated QCT of coronary plaque morphology is reproducible, albeit with some decline in reproducibility with worsening patient risk profile.

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Long-Term Prognostic Value of Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography in an Asymptomatic Elderly Population.

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