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Short-term association between ambient temperature and homicide in South Africa: a case-crossover study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Criminology research has traditionally investigated sociodemographic predictors of crime, such as sex, race, age, and socioeconomic status. However, evidence suggests that short-term fluctuations in crime often vary more than long-term trends, which sociodemographic factors cannot explain. This has redirected researchers to explore how environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, influence criminal behavior. In this study we investigate the association between daily ambient temperature and homicide incidence in South Africa, a country with one of the highest homicide rates in the world. METHODS:Mortality data was from South Africa's civil registration system and includes all recorded deaths in the country from 1997 to 2013 (17?years). Daily temperature was from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association of the United States and South Africa's Agricultural Research Council. Data were analyzed using a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression. We delineated cases as either "definite" (ICD-10 codes X85-Y09, n?=?68,356) or "probable" homicides (ICD-10 codes W25-W26, W32-W34, W50, Y22-Y24, Y28-Y29, n?=?177,873). Case periods were defined as the day on which a death occurred. Control periods were selected using a day-of-week match within the same month and district. Analyses investigated same-day and lagged effects of maximum, mean and minimum temperature. RESULTS:A one-degree Celsius increase in same-day maximum temperature - our a priori metric of choice - was associated with a 1.5% (1.3-1.8%) increase in definite homicides and a 1.2% (1.1-1.3%) increase in total (definite + probable) homicides. Significant (p?

SUBMITTER: Gates A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6915878 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Short-term association between ambient temperature and homicide in South Africa: a case-crossover study.

Gates Abigail A Klein Mitchel M Acquaotta Fiorella F Garland Rebecca M RM Scovronick Noah N

Environmental health : a global access science source 20191216 1

<h4>Background</h4>Criminology research has traditionally investigated sociodemographic predictors of crime, such as sex, race, age, and socioeconomic status. However, evidence suggests that short-term fluctuations in crime often vary more than long-term trends, which sociodemographic factors cannot explain. This has redirected researchers to explore how environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, influence criminal behavior. In this study we investigate the association between dail ...[more]

PMID: 31842901

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Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about the associations between ambient environmental exposures and the risk of acute episodes of psychiatric disorders. We aimed to estimate the link between short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants, temperature, and acute psychiatric hospital admissions in adults aged 65 years and older in the USA.MethodsFor this study, we included all people (aged ≥65 years) enrolled in the Medicare programme in the USA who had an emergency or urgent hospital admission for a psychiatric disorder recorded between Jan 31, 2000, and Dec 31, 2016. We applied a case-crossover design to study the associations between short-term exposure to air pollution (fine particulate matter [PM2·5], ozone, and nitrogen dioxide [NO2]), ambient temperature, and the risk of acute hospital admissions for depression, schizophrenia, and bipolar disorder in this population. The percentage change in the risk of hospital admission and annual absolute risk differences were estimated.FindingsFor each 5°C increase in short-term exposure to cold season temperature, the relative risk of acute hospital admission increased by 3·66% (95% CI 3·06-4·26) for depression, by 3·03% (2·04-4·02) for schizophrenia, and by 3·52% (2·38-4·68) for bipolar disorder in the US Medicare population. Increased short-term exposure to PM2·5 and NO2 was also associated with a significant increase in the risk of acute hospital admissions for psychiatric disorders. Each 5 μg/m3 increase in PM2·5 was associated with an increase in hospital admission rates of 0·62% (95% CI 0·23-1·02) for depression, 0·77% (0·11-1·44) for schizophrenia, and 1·19% (0·49-1·90) for bipolar disorder; each 5 parts per billion (ppb) increase in NO2, meanwhile, was linked to an increase in hospital admission rates of 0·35% (95% CI 0·03-0·66) for depression and 0·64% (0·20-1·08) for schizophrenia. No such associations were found with warm season temperature.InterpretationIn the US Medicare population, short-term exposure to elevated concentrations of PM2·5 and NO2 and cold season ambient temperature were significantly associated with an increased risk of hospital admissions for psychiatric disorders. Considering the increasing burden of psychiatric disorders in the US population, these findings suggest that intervening on air pollution and ambient temperature levels through stricter environmental regulations or climate mitigation could help ease the psychiatric health-care burden.FundingUS National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, US Environmental Protection Agency, and US National Institute on Aging.

Project description:BackgroundClimate change is increasing global average temperatures, as well as the frequency of extreme weather events. Both low and high ambient temperatures have been associated with elevated mortality; however, little is known about the cardiovascular impacts of hourly temperature.MethodsWe assessed the association between hourly ambient temperature and risk of myocardial infarction (MI) across adult residents of New York State (NYS). We identified cases across NYS hospitals from 2000 to 2015 in the New York Department of Health Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System dataset, using ICD codes. Hourly ambient temperature was assessed at each patient's residential ZIP code, up to 48 hours prior to MI. We employed a time-stratified case-crossover study design matching case to control periods on hour of day, day of week, month and year.ResultsOf the 791,695 primary MI hospital admissions, 45% were female, the mean (standard deviation; SD) age was 70 (15) years, and 49% of cases occurred among New York City residents. The observed temperature range was -29 °C to 39 °C, with a mean of 10.8 °C (10.5 °C). Temperature in the 6 h preceding the MI was positively associated with risk of MI, across the range of observed temperatures, with null or nearly null associations for earlier hours. We estimated a cumulative percent increase in hourly myocardial infarction rate of 7.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.2%, 10.6%) for an 11 °C (median) to 27 °C (95th percentile) temperature increase for lag hours 0-5. Men, Medicare-ineligible individuals (age < 65), and those experiencing their first MI were most sensitive.ConclusionOur study provides evidence that increases in hourly ambient temperature can trigger myocardial infarction. Health-based definitions of extreme heat events may better capture the deleterious effects of heat by accounting for hourly temperature. Our findings can inform the design of more effective preparedness strategies for the increasingly frequent extreme heat events.

Project description:BackgroundInfluenza imposes a heavy burden on public health. Little is known, however, of the associations between detailed measures of exposure to ambient air pollution and influenza at an individual level.ObjectiveWe examined individual-level associations between six criteria air pollutants and influenza using case-crossover design.MethodsIn this individual-level time-stratified case-crossover study, we linked influenza cases collected by the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2019 with individual residence-level exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO). The exposures were estimated for the day of onset of influenza symptoms (lag 0), 1-7 d before the onset (lags 1-7), as well as an 8-d moving average (lag07), using a random forest model and linked to study participants' home addresses. Conditional logistic regression was developed to investigate the associations between short-term exposure to air pollution and influenza, adjusting for mean temperature, relative humidity, public holidays, population mobility, and community influenza susceptibility.ResultsN=108,479 eligible cases were identified in our study. Every 10-μg/m3 increase in exposure to PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and CO and every 5-μg/m3 increase in SO2 over 8-d moving average (lag07) was associated with higher risk of influenza with a relative risk (RR) of 1.028 (95% CI: 1.018, 1.038), 1.041 (95% CI: 1.032, 1.049), 1.169 (95% CI: 1.151, 1.188), 1.004 (95% CI: 1.003, 1.006), and 1.134 (95% CI: 1.107, 1.163), respectively. There was a negative association between O3 and influenza with a RR of 0.878 (95% CI: 0.866, 0.890).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that short-term exposure to air pollution, except for O3, is associated with greater risk for influenza. Further studies are necessary to decipher underlying mechanisms and design preventive interventions and policies. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12145.

Project description:A limited number of studies suggest that ambient temperature contributes to suicide; these studies typically focus on a single nation and use temporally and spatially aggregated data.We evaluated the association between ambient temperature and suicide in multiple cities in three East Asian countries.A time-stratified case-crossover method was used to explore the relationship between temperature and suicide, adjusting for potential time-varying confounders and time-invariant individual characteristics. Sex- and age-specific associations of temperature with suicide were estimated, as were interactions between temperature and these variables. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate country-specific pooled associations of temperature with suicide.An increase in temperature corresponding to half of the city-specific standard deviation was positively associated with suicide in most cities, although average suicide rates varied substantially. Pooled country-level effect estimates were 7.8% (95% CI: 5.0, 10.8%) for a 2.3°C increase in ambient temperature in Taiwan, 6.8% (95% CI: 5.4, 8.2%) for a 4.7°C increase in Korea, and 4.5% (95% CI: 3.3, 5.7%) for a 4.2°C increase in Japan. The association between temperature and suicide was significant even after adjusting for sunshine duration; the association between sunshine and suicide was not significant. The associations were greater among men than women in 12 of the 15 cities although not significantly so. There was little evidence of a consistent pattern of associations with age. In general, associations were strongest with temperature on the same day or the previous day, with little evidence of associations with temperature over longer lags (up to 5 days).We estimated consistent positive associations between suicide and elevated ambient temperature in three East Asian countries, regardless of country, sex, and age.Kim Y, Kim H, Honda Y, Guo YL, Chen BY, Woo JM, Ebi KL. 2016. Suicide and ambient temperature in East Asian countries: a time-stratified case-crossover analysis. Environ Health Perspect 124:75-80; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409392.

Project description:BackgroundAcute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the leading cause of death among people with diabetes mellitus (DM) and has been found to occur more frequently with extreme temperatures. With the increasing prevalence of DM and the rising global mean temperature, the number of heat-related AMI cases among DM patients may increase. This study compares excess risk of AMI during periods of extreme temperatures between patients with DM and without DM.MethodsDistributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) were used to estimate the short-term association between daily mean temperature and AMI admissions (International Classification of Diseases 9th revision [ICD-9] code: 410.00-410.99), stratified by DM status (ICD-9: 250.00-250.99), to all public hospitals in Hong Kong from 2002 to 2011, adjusting for other meteorological variables and air pollutants. Analyses were also stratified by season, age group, gender, and admission type (first admissions and readmissions). The admissions data and meteorological data were obtained from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA) and the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO).FindingsA total of 53,769 AMI admissions were included in the study. AMI admissions among DM patients were linearly and negatively associated with temperature in the cold season (cumulative relative risk [cumRR] [95% confidence interval] in lag 0-22 days (12 °C versus 24 °C) = 2.10 [1.62-2.72]), while those among patients without DM only started increasing when temperatures dropped below 22 °C with a weaker association (cumRR = 1.43 [1.21-1.69]). In the hot season, AMI hospitalizations among DM patients started increasing when the temperature dropped below or rose above 28.8 °C (cumRR in lag 0-4 days [30.4 versus 28.8 °C] = 1.14 [1.00-1.31]), while those among patients without DM showed no association with temperature. The differences in sensitivity to temperature between patients with DM and without DM were most apparent in the group <75 years old and among first-admission cases in the cold season. The main limitation of this study was the unavailability of data on individual exposure to ambient temperature.ConclusionsDM patients had a higher increased risk of AMI admissions than non-DM patients during extreme temperatures. AMI admissions risks among DM patients rise sharply in both high and low temperatures, with a stronger effect in low temperatures, while AMI risk among non-DM patients only increased mildly in low temperatures. Targeted health protection guidelines should be provided to warn DM patients and physicians about the dangers of extreme temperatures. Further studies to project the impacts of AMI risks on DM patients by climate change are warranted.

Dataset Information

Short-term association between ambient temperature and homicide in South Africa: a case-crossover study.

Publications

Short-term association between ambient temperature and homicide in South Africa: a case-crossover study.

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