Developing an individualized risk calculator for psychopathology among young people victimized during childhood: A population-representative cohort study.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Victimized children are at greater risk for psychopathology than non-victimized peers. However, not all victimized children develop psychiatric disorders, and accurately identifying which victimized children are at greatest risk for psychopathology is important to provide targeted interventions. This study sought to develop and internally validate individualized risk prediction models for psychopathology among victimized children.Methods
Participants were members of the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally-representative British birth cohort of 2,232 twins born in 1994-1995. Victimization exposure was measured prospectively between ages 5 and 12 years, alongside a comprehensive range of individual-, family-, and community-level predictors of psychopathology. Structured psychiatric interviews took place at age-18 assessment. Logistic regression models were estimated with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regularization to avoid over-fitting to the current sample, and internally validated using 10-fold nested cross-validation.Results
26.5% (n = 591) of E-Risk participants had been exposed to at least one form of severe childhood victimization, and 60.4% (n = 334) of victimized children met diagnostic criteria for any psychiatric disorder at age 18. Separate prediction models for any psychiatric disorder, internalizing disorders, and externalizing disorders selected parsimonious subsets of predictors. The three internally validated models showed adequate discrimination, based on area-under-the-curve estimates (range = =0.66-0.73), and good calibration.Limitations
External validation in wholly-independent data is needed before clinical implementation.Conclusions
Findings offer proof-of-principle evidence that prediction modeling can be useful in supporting identification of victimized children at greatest risk for psychopathology. This has the potential to inform targeted interventions and rational resource allocation.
SUBMITTER: Meehan AJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6916410 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundChildhood victimization elevates the average risk of developing functional impairment in adulthood. However, not all victimized children demonstrate poor outcomes. Although research has described factors that confer vulnerability or resilience, it is unknown if this knowledge can be translated to accurately identify the most vulnerable victimized children.ObjectiveTo build and internally validate a risk calculator to identify those victimized children who are most at risk of functional impairment at age 18 years.ParticipantsWe utilized data from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally-representative birth cohort of 2232 UK children born in 1994-95.MethodsVictimization exposure was assessed repeatedly between ages 5 and 12 years along with a range of individual-, family- and community-level predictors. Functional outcomes were assessed at age 18 years. We developed and evaluated a prediction model for psychosocial disadvantage and economic disadvantage using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regularized regression with nested 10-fold cross-validation.ResultsThe model predicting psychosocial disadvantage following childhood victimization retained 12 of 22 predictors, had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.65, and was well-calibrated within the range of 40-70% predicted risk. The model predicting economic disadvantage retained 10 of 22 predictors, achieved excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.80), and a high degree of calibration.ConclusionsPrediction modelling techniques can be applied to estimate individual risk for poor functional outcomes in young adulthood following childhood victimization. Such risk prediction tools could potentially assist practitioners to target interventions, which is particularly useful in a context of scarce resources.
| S-EPMC6905153 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceUnderstanding which children in the general population are at greatest risk of poor functional outcomes could improve early screening and intervention strategies.ObjectiveTo investigate the odds of poor outcomes in emerging adulthood (ages 17 to 20 years) for children with different mental health trajectories at ages 9 to 13 years.Design, setting, and participantsGrowing Up in Ireland is a longitudinal, nationally representative population-based cohort study. Data collection began in August 2007 and was repeated most recently in September 2018. All results were weighted to account for sampling bias and attrition and were adjusted for socioeconomic factors. Data analysis took place from October 2022 to April 2023.ExposureFour latent classes captured variation in mental health in children aged 9 and 13 years, based on the parent-completed Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Classes included no psychopathology, internalizing, externalizing, and high (comorbid) psychopathology. Those who remained in the same class from ages 9 to 13 years were included.Main outcomes and measuresPoor functional outcomes in emerging adulthood were measured at approximate ages 17 years (range, 16 to 18 years) and 20 years (range, 19 to 21 years). Outcomes included poor mental health, poor physical health, social isolation, heavy substance use, frequent health service use, poor subjective well-being, and adverse educational/economic outcomes.ResultsOf 5141 included participants, 2618 (50.9%) were male. A total of 3726 (72.5%) were classed as having no childhood psychopathology, 1025 (19.9%) as having persistent externalizing psychopathology, 243 (4.7%) as having persistent internalizing psychopathology, and 147 (2.9%) as having persistent high psychopathology. Having any childhood psychopathology was associated with poorer functional outcomes in emerging adulthood. The internalizing group had elevated odds of most outcomes except for heavy substance use (range of odds ratios [ORs]: 1.38 [95% CI, 1.05-1.81] for frequent health service use to 3.08 [95% CI, 2.33-4.08] for poor mental health). The externalizing group had significantly elevated odds of all outcomes, albeit with relatively small effect sizes (range of ORs: 1.38 [95% CI, 1.19-1.60] for frequent health service use to 1.98 [95% CI, 1.67-2.35] for adverse educational/economic outcomes). The high psychopathology group had elevated odds of all outcomes (nonsignificantly for frequent health service use), though with wide confidence intervals (range of ORs: 1.53 [95% CI, 1.06-2.21] for poor physical health to 2.91 [95% CI, 2.05-4.12] for poor mental health). Female participants with any psychopathology had significantly higher odds of poor physical health and frequent health service use compared with male participants with any psychopathology.Conclusions and relevanceIn this longitudinal cohort study, childhood psychopathology was associated with a widespread pattern of functional impairment in emerging adulthood. Findings point to the need for a wider range of preventive interventions in child and adolescent mental health services.
| S-EPMC10543080 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMental and substance use disorders are among the leading causes of burden of disease worldwide, with risk of onset peaking between the ages of 13 and 24 years. Comorbidity is also common among young people and complicates research, diagnosis and assessment, and clinical decision making. There is increasing support for empirically derived models of psychopathology that overcome issues of comorbidity and provide a transdiagnostic framework for investigating the specificity and generality of risk and protective factors for psychopathology.ObjectiveThis systematic review aims to identify transdiagnostic risk and protective factors for psychopathology in young people by synthesizing and evaluating findings from research investigating empirically based models of psychopathology.MethodsSearches will be conducted in Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases. Reference lists of selected articles will also be hand searched for other relevant publications. All studies will be screened against eligibility criteria designed to identify studies that examined empirical models of psychopathology in relation to risk and/or protective factors in young people with a mean age between 10 and 24 years. Study quality will be assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklists for Cohort Studies and Analytical Cross-Sectional Studies. Findings will be summarized in a narrative synthesis, and a meta-analysis will be conducted if sufficient data are available.ResultsThis review is ongoing. At the time of submission, full-text screening was completed, and hand searching of selected articles was underway. Results are expected to be completed by the end of 2020.ConclusionsThis protocol is for a systematic review of evidence for transdiagnostic risk and protective factors associated with empirically based models of psychopathology in young people. To our knowledge, the critical synthesis of this evidence will be the first to date and will provide a better understanding of the factors that contribute to the onset and maintenance of psychopathology in young people. Insights drawn from the review will provide critical new knowledge to improve the targeting of interventions to prevent or reduce mental health problems.Trial registrationThis systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020161368) and is available via Open Science Framework.International registered report identifier (irrid)DERR1-10.2196/19779.
| S-EPMC7471887 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDespite the emphasis placed on childhood trauma in psychiatry, comparatively little is known about the epidemiology of trauma and trauma-related psychopathology in young people. We therefore aimed to evaluate the prevalence, clinical features, and risk factors associated with trauma exposure and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in young people.MethodsWe carried out a comprehensive epidemiological study based on participants from the Environmental Risk Longitudinal Twin Study, a population-representative birth-cohort of 2232 children born in England and Wales in 1994-95. At the follow-up home visit at age 18 years, participants were assessed with structured interviews for trauma exposure, PTSD, other psychopathology, risk events, functional impairment, and service use. Risk factors for PTSD were measured prospectively over four previous assessments between age 5 and 12 years. The key outcomes were the prevalence, clinical features, and risk factors associated with trauma exposure and PTSD. We also derived and tested the internal validity of a PTSD risk calculator.FindingsWe found that 642 (31·1%) of 2064 participants reported trauma exposure and 160 (7·8%) of 2063 experienced PTSD by age 18 years. Trauma-exposed participants had high rates of psychopathology (187 [29·2%] of 641 for major depressive episode, 146 [22·9%] of 638 for conduct disorder, and 102 [15·9%] of 641 for alcohol dependence), risk events (160 [25·0%] of 641 for self-harm, 53 [8·3%] of 640 for suicide attempt, and 42 [6·6%] of 640 for violent offence), and functional impairment. Participants with lifetime PTSD had even higher rates of psychopathology (87 [54·7%] of 159 for major depressive episode, 43 [27·0%] of 159 for conduct disorder, and 41 [25·6%] of 160 for alcohol dependence), risk events (78 [48·8%] of 160 for self-harm, 32 [20·1%] of 159 for suicide attempt, and 19 [11·9%] of 159 for violent offence), and functional impairment. However, only 33 (20·6%) of 160 participants with PTSD received help from mental health professionals. The PTSD risk calculator had an internally validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0·74, indicating adequate discrimination of trauma-exposed participants with and without PTSD, and internally validated calibration-in-the-large of -0·10 and calibration slope of 0·90, indicating adequate calibration.InterpretationTrauma exposure and PTSD are associated with complex psychiatric presentations, high risk, and significant impairment in young people. Improved screening, reduced barriers to care provision, and comprehensive clinical assessment are needed to ensure that trauma-exposed young people and those with PTSD receive appropriate treatment.FundingThe Medical Research Council, the National Institute of Child Health and Development, the Jacobs Foundation, the Nuffield Foundation, the National Society for Prevention of Cruelty to Children, the Economic and Social Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, MQ, and Canadian Institutes for Advanced Research.
| S-EPMC6384243 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAdverse childhood experiences (ACEs) increases vulnerability to externalising disorders such as substance misuse. The study aims to determine the prevalence of ACEs and its association with substance misuse.MethodsData from the Consortium on Vulnerability to Externalising Disorders and Addictions (cVEDA) in India was used (n = 9010). ACEs were evaluated using the World Health Organisation (WHO) Adverse Childhood Experiences International Questionnaire whilst substance misuse was assessed using the WHO Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test. A random-effects, two-stage individual patient data meta-analysis explained the associations between ACEs and substance misuse with adjustments for confounders such as sex and family structure.Results1 in 2 participants reported child maltreatment ACEs and family level ACEs. Except for sexual abuse, males report more of every individual childhood adversity and are more likely to report misusing substances compared with females (87.3% vs. 12.7%). In adolescents, family level ACEs (adj OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.5-11.7) and collective level ACEs (adj OR 6.6, 95% CI 1.4-31.1) show associations with substance misuse whilst in young adults, child level ACEs such as maltreatment show similar strong associations (adj OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.5).ConclusionACEs such as abuse and domestic violence are strongly associated with substance misuse, most commonly tobacco, in adolescent and young adult males in India. The results suggest enhancing current ACE resilience programmes and 'trauma-informed' approaches to tackling longer-term impact of ACEs in India.FundingNewton Bhabha Grant jointly funded by the Medical Research Council, UK (MR/N000390/1) and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR/MRC-UK/3/M/2015-NCD-I).
| S-EPMC8539836 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Transdiagnostic research has identified a general psychopathology factor-often called the 'p' factor-that accounts for shared variation across internalizing, externalizing, and thought disorders in diverse samples. It has been argued that the p factor may reflect dysfunctional thinking present in serious mental illness. In support of this, we previously used a theory-free, data-driven multimodal neuroimaging approach to find that higher p factor scores are associated with structural alterations within a cerebello-thalamo-cortical circuit (CTCC) and visual association cortex, both of which are important for monitoring and coordinating information processing in the service of executive control. Here we attempt to replicate these associations by conducting region-of-interest analyses using data from 875 members of the Dunedin Longitudinal Study, a five-decade study of a population-representative birth cohort, collected when they were 45 years old. We further sought to replicate a more recent report that p factor scores can be predicted by patterns of distributed cerebellar morphology as estimated through independent component analysis. We successfully replicated associations between higher p factor scores and both reduced gray matter volume of the visual association cortex and fractional anisotropy of pontine white matter pathways within the CTCC. In contrast, we failed to replicate prior associations between cerebellar structure and p factor scores. Collectively, our findings encourage further focus on the CTCC and visual association cortex as core neural substrates and potential biomarkers of general psychopathology.
| S-EPMC7266702 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo understand whether genetic risk for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with the course of the disorder across childhood and into young adulthood.MethodParticipants were from the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a population-based birth cohort of 2,232 twins. ADHD was assessed at ages 5, 7, 10, and 12 with mother- and teacher-reports and at age 18 with self-report. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were created using a genome-wide association study of ADHD case status. Associations with PRS were examined at multiple points in childhood and longitudinally from early childhood to adolescence. We investigated ADHD PRS and course to young adulthood, as reflected by ADHD remission, persistence, and late onset.ResultsParticipants with higher ADHD PRSs had increased risk for meeting ADHD diagnostic criteria (odds ratios ranging from 1.17 at age 10 to 1.54 at age 12) and for elevated symptoms at ages 5, 7, 10, and 12. Higher PRS was longitudinally associated with more hyperactivity/impulsivity (incidence rate ratio = 1.18) and inattention (incidence rate ratio = 1.14) from age 5 to age 12. In young adulthood, participants with persistent ADHD exhibited the highest PRS (mean PRS = 0.37), followed by participants with remission (mean PRS = 0.21); both groups had higher PRS than controls (mean PRS = -0.03), but did not significantly differ from one another. Participants with late-onset ADHD did not show elevated PRS for ADHD, depression, alcohol dependence, or marijuana use disorder.ConclusionGenetic risk scores derived from case-control genome-wide association studies may have relevance not only for incidence of mental health disorders, but also for understanding the longitudinal course of mental health disorders.
| S-EPMC8417462 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Complex structural and functional changes occurring in typical and atypical development necessitate multidimensional approaches to better understand the risk of developing psychopathology. Here, we simultaneously examined structural and functional brain network patterns in relation to dimensions of psychopathology in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development dataset. Several components were identified, recapitulating the psychopathology hierarchy, with the general psychopathology (p) factor explaining most covariance with multimodal imaging features, while the internalizing, externalizing, and neurodevelopmental dimensions were each associated with distinct morphological and functional connectivity signatures. Connectivity signatures associated with the p factor and neurodevelopmental dimensions followed the sensory-to-transmodal axis of cortical organization, which is related to the emergence of complex cognition and risk for psychopathology. Results were consistent in two separate data subsamples, supporting generalizability, and robust to variations in analytical parameters. Our findings help in better understanding biological mechanisms underpinning dimensions of psychopathology, and could provide brain-based vulnerability markers.
| S-EPMC11343159 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeChildhood exposure to traumatic violence may shape how children respond to threatening faces and increase risk for psychopathology. Maltreated children may exhibit altered processing of threatening faces; however, the effects of witnessing intimate partner violence (IPV) on children's discrimination of facial expressions is under-studied. Emotional face processing differentially relates to psychopathology, with some evidence suggesting improved detection of angry faces in children with fear-related anxiety symptoms, whereas externalizing symptoms are associated with poorer detection of fearful faces and perhaps emotional faces broadly.MethodIn this cross-sectional study, we examined discrimination of threatening emotional faces (angry, fearful) in relation to experiences of probable abuse and witnessing of physical IPV, as well as psychopathology. Children (N = 137, mean age = 5.01 years, SD = 0.81) completed a "face in the crowd task" designed to examine discrimination of angry and fearful faces. Children either searched for an angry face among fearful distractor faces or a fearful face among angry distractors. Probable child abuse, witnessed IPV, and symptoms were assessed in semi-structured maternal interviews.ResultsChildren who witnessed violence showed poorer accuracy when fearful faces were the target; however, effects for probable abuse were non-significant. Greater fear-related anxiety symptoms were associated with poorer accuracy for fearful faces. Externalizing symptoms were associated with poorer overall accuracy.ConclusionsFindings suggest that IPV and fear-related anxiety symptoms were associated with difficulty detecting fearful faces when angry distractors were present, consistent with prior research. Implications of violence- and symptom-associated deficits in emotional face processing are discussed.
| S-EPMC9634668 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and objectivesBy age 5, 20% of British children are classed as overweight or obese, suggesting that early childhood is crucial for lifelong body mass index (BMI) trajectories. In this paper, we identify latent trajectories of early-childhood BMI from ages 3 to 11 years. Given the current context of growing socio-economic inequalities in childhood and adult overweight and obesity, we examine the socio-economic characteristics and mechanisms during pregnancy and infancy which underscore these trajectories.Subject and methodsWe use a nationally representative, prospective cohort study of 9699 children born in 2000-2002, living in the United Kingdom shortly after birth, with complete information on height and weight (measured by an interviewer) at ages 3, 5, 7 and 11. Trajectories of BMI are calculated using latent growth mixture models. Multinomial models characterize these trajectories by their socio-economic profiles and mechanisms during pregnancy and infancy.ResultsFour trajectories were identified: two separate trajectories where BMI remains within a normal range (85% of the sample), an overweight trajectory (14.4%), and an obese trajectory (3.1%). No 'declining BMI' or late-onset groups were found. The obese group is already distinct from the other trajectories by age 3. The overweight group diverges from the normal groups around age 5. Strong socio-economic inequalities emerged; for the obese group, part of this disadvantage is mediated through early mechanisms such as pregnancy smoke and not initiating breastfeeding.ConclusionsThis study provides strong evidence for the idea that childhood BMI trajectories develop early, especially for children who will follow an obese trajectory. Strong socio-economic patterns in these trajectories suggest that the observed trend in growing inequalities may be rooted in early life. Mediating mechanisms for the obese appear to be in the pregnancy and infant period, further research should explore mechanisms occurring around age 5 when the overweight trajectory diverges.
| S-EPMC4817077 | biostudies-literature