Dataset Information

External validation of clinical prediction rules for complications and mortality following Clostridioides difficile infection.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Several clinical prediction rules (CPRs) for complications and mortality of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) have been developed but only a few have gone through external validation, and none is widely recommended in clinical practice.

Methods

CPRs were identified through a systematic review. We included studies that predicted severe or complicated CDI (cCDI) and mortality, reported at least an internal validation step, and for which data were available with minimal modifications. Data from a multicenter prospective cohort of 1380 adults with confirmed CDI were used for external validation. In this cohort, cCDI occurred in 8% of the patients and 30-day all-cause mortality occurred in 12%. The performance of each tool was assessed using individual outcomes, with the same cut-offs and standard parameters.

Results

Seven CPRs were assessed. Three predictive scores for cCDI showed low sensitivity (25-61%) and positive predictive value (PPV; 9-31%), but moderate specificity (54-90%) and negative predictive value (NPV; 82-95%). One model [using age, white blood cell count (WBC), narcotic use, antacids use, and creatinine ratio > 1.5× the normal level as covariates] showed a probability of 25% of cCDI at the optimal cut-off point with 36% sensitivity and 84% specificity. Two scores for mortality had low sensitivity (4-55%) and PPV (25-31%), and moderate specificity (71-78%) and NPV (87-92%). One predictive model for 30-day all-cause mortality [Charlson comorbidity index, WBC, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), diagnosis in ICU, and delirium] showed an AUC-ROC of 0.74. All other CPRs showed lower AUC values (0.63-0.69). Errors in calibration ranged from 12%- 27%.

Conclusions

Included CPRs showed moderate performance for clinical use in a large validation cohort with a majority of patients infected with ribotype 027 strains and a low rate of cCDI and mortality. These data show that better CPRs need to be developed and validated.

SUBMITTER: Beauregard-Paultre C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6917260 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

External validation of clinical prediction rules for complications and mortality following Clostridioides difficile infection.

Beauregard-Paultre Catherine C Abou Chakra Claire Nour CN McGeer Allison A Labbé Annie-Claude AC Simor Andrew E AE Gold Wayne W Muller Matthew P MP Powis Jeff J Katz Kevin K Cadarette Suzanne M SM Pépin Jacques J Valiquette Louis L

PloS one 20191217 12

<h4>Background</h4>Several clinical prediction rules (CPRs) for complications and mortality of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) have been developed but only a few have gone through external validation, and none is widely recommended in clinical practice.<h4>Methods</h4>CPRs were identified through a systematic review. We included studies that predicted severe or complicated CDI (cCDI) and mortality, reported at least an internal validation step, and for which data were available with min ...[more]

PMID: 31846487

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Project description:ObjectiveFecal microbiota transplantation (FMT) is a highly effective treatment for Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI). However, the fecal transplant's causal components translating into clearance of the CDI are yet to be identified. The commensal bacteria Faecalibacterium prausnitzii may be of great interest in this context, since it is one of the most common species of the healthy gut microbiota and produces metabolites with anti-inflammatory properties. Although there is mounting evidence that F. prausnitzii is an important regulator of intestinal homeostasis, data about its role in CDI and FMT are relatively scarce.MethodsStool samples from patients with recurrent CDI were collected to investigate the relative abundance of F. prausnitzii before and after FMT. Twenty-one patients provided fecal samples before the FMT procedure, at 2 weeks post-FMT, and at 2-4 months post-FMT. The relative abundance of F. prausnitzii was determined using quantitative polymerase chain reaction.ResultsThe abundance of F. prausnitzii was elevated in samples (N = 9) from donors compared to pre-FMT samples (N = 15) from patients (adjusted P<0.001). No significant difference in the abundance of F. prausnitzii between responders (N = 11) and non-responders (N = 4) was found before FMT (P = 0.85). In patients with CDI, the abundance of F. prausnitzii significantly increased in the 2 weeks post-FMT samples (N = 14) compared to the pre-FMT samples (N = 15, adjusted P<0.001). The increase persisted 2-4 months post-FMT (N = 15) compared to pre-FMT samples (N = 15) (adjusted P<0.001).ConclusionsFMT increases the relative abundance of F. prausnitzii in patients with recurrent CDI, and this microbial shift remains several months later. The baseline abundance of F. prausnitzii in donors or recipients was not associated with future treatment response, although a true predictive capacity cannot be excluded because of the limited sample size. Further studies are needed to discern whether F. prausnitzii plays an active role in the resolution of CDI.

Project description:BackgroundClinical prediction rules (CPRs) should be externally validated by independent researchers. Although there are many cardiovascular CPRs, most have not been externally validated. It is not known why some CPRs are externally validated by independent researchers and others are not.MethodsWe analyzed cardiovascular risk CPRs included in a systematic review. Independent external validations were identified by forward citation searches of derivation studies. Time between the publication of a cardiovascular CPR and the first independent external validation was calculated. We assessed Kaplan-Meier estimates of the probability to have an independent external validation. Using univariable Cox regression, we explored whether characteristics of derivation (design, location, sample size, number of predictors, presentation format, validation in derivation), reporting (participants, predictors, outcomes, performance measure, information for risk calculation), and publication (journal impact factor) are associated with time to the first independent external validation.ResultsOf 125 cardiovascular risk CPRs, 29 had an independent external validation. The median follow-up was 118 months (95% CI, 99-130). The 25th percentile of event time was 122 months (95% CI, 91-299). Cardiovascular risk CPRs from the USA were 4.15 times (95% CI, 1.89-9.13) more likely to have an independent external validation. Increasing the sample size of derivation by ten times was associated with a 2.32-fold (95% CI, 1.37-3.91) increase in the probability of having an independent external validation. CPRs presented with an internal validation tend to get an independent external validation sooner (HR = 1.73, 95% CI, 0.77-3.93). CPRs reporting all the information necessary for calculating individual risk were 2.65 (95% CI, 1.01-6.96) times more likely to have an independent external validation. Publishing a cardiovascular risk CPR in a journal that has one unit higher impact factor was associated with a 6% (95% CI, 3-9) higher likelihood of an independent external validation.ConclusionsThe probability for cardiovascular risk CPRs to get an independent external validation was low even many years after their derivations. Authors of new cardiovascular risk CPRs should consider using adequate sample size, conducting an internal validation, and reporting all the information needed for risk calculation as these features were associated with an independent external validation.

Dataset Information

External validation of clinical prediction rules for complications and mortality following Clostridioides difficile infection.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

External validation of clinical prediction rules for complications and mortality following Clostridioides difficile infection.

Similar Datasets

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