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Gradual Change, Homeostasis, and Punctuated Equilibrium: Reconsidering Patterns of Health in Later Life.

ABSTRACT: Longitudinal methods aggregate individual health histories to produce inferences about aging populations, but to what extent do these summaries reflect the experiences of older adults? We describe the assumption of gradual change built into several influential statistical models and draw on widely used, nationally representative survey data to empirically compare the conclusions drawn from mixed-regression methods (growth curve models and latent class growth analysis) designed to capture trajectories with key descriptive statistics and methods (multistate life tables and sequence analysis) that depict discrete states and transitions. We show that individual-level data record stasis irregularly punctuated by relatively sudden change in health status or mortality. Although change is prevalent in the sample, for individuals it occurs rarely, at irregular times and intervals, and in a nonlinear and multidirectional fashion. We conclude by discussing the implications of this punctuated equilibrium pattern for understanding health changes in individuals and the dynamics of inequality in aging populations.

SUBMITTER: Engelman M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6917959 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Gradual Change, Homeostasis, and Punctuated Equilibrium: Reconsidering Patterns of Health in Later Life.

Engelman Michal M Jackson Heide H

Demography 20191201 6

Longitudinal methods aggregate individual health histories to produce inferences about aging populations, but to what extent do these summaries reflect the experiences of older adults? We describe the assumption of gradual change built into several influential statistical models and draw on widely used, nationally representative survey data to empirically compare the conclusions drawn from mixed-regression methods (growth curve models and latent class growth analysis) designed to capture traject ...[more]

PMID: 31713126

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Project description:Evidence for the contribution of individual foods and nutrients to bone health is weak. Few studies have considered hypothesis-based dietary patterns and bone health. We investigated whether a protein-calcium-potassium-rich (PrCaK-rich) dietary pattern over the adult life course, was positively associated with bone outcomes at 60 to 64 years of age. Diet diaries were collected at ages 36, 46, 53, and 60 to 64 years in 1263 participants (661 women) from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development. DXA and pQCT measurements were obtained at age 60 to 64 years, including size-adjusted bone mineral content (SA-BMC) and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD). A food-based dietary pattern best explaining dietary calcium, potassium, and protein intakes (g/1000 kcal) was identified using reduced rank regression. Dietary pattern Z-scores were calculated for each individual, at each time point. Individual trajectories in dietary pattern Z-scores were modeled to summarize changes in Z-scores over the study period. Regression models examined associations between these trajectories and bone outcomes at age 60 to 64 years, adjusting for baseline dietary pattern Z-score and other confounders. A consistent PrCaK-rich dietary pattern was identified within the population, over time. Mean ± SD dietary pattern Z-scores at age 36 years and age 60 to 64 years were -0.32 ± 0.97 and 2.2 ± 1.5 (women) and -0.35 ± 0.98 and 1.7 ± 1.6 (men), respectively. Mean trajectory in dietary pattern Z-scores ± SD was 0.07 ± 0.02 units/year. Among women, a 0.02-SD unit/year higher trajectory in dietary pattern Z-score over time was associated with higher SA-BMC (spine 1.40% [95% CI, 0.30 to 2.51]; hip 1.35% [95% CI, 0.48 to 2.23]), and vBMD (radius 1.81% [95% CI, 0.13 to 3.50]) at age 60 to 64 years. No statistically significant associations were found in men. During adulthood, an increasing score for a dietary pattern rich in protein, calcium, and potassium was associated with greater SA-BMC at fracture-prone sites in women. This study emphasizes the importance of these nutrients, within the context of the whole diet, to bone health. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Dataset Information

Gradual Change, Homeostasis, and Punctuated Equilibrium: Reconsidering Patterns of Health in Later Life.

Publications

Gradual Change, Homeostasis, and Punctuated Equilibrium: Reconsidering Patterns of Health in Later Life.

Similar Datasets

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