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National HIV testing and diagnosis coverage in sub-Saharan Africa: a new modeling tool for estimating the 'first 90' from program and survey data.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:HIV testing services (HTS) are a crucial component of national HIV responses. Learning one's HIV diagnosis is the entry point to accessing life-saving antiretroviral treatment and care. Recognizing the critical role of HTS, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) launched the 90-90-90 targets stipulating that by 2020, 90% of people living with HIV know their status, 90% of those who know their status receive antiretroviral therapy, and 90% of those on treatment have a suppressed viral load. Countries will need to regularly monitor progress on these three indicators. Estimating the proportion of people living with HIV who know their status (i.e. the 'first 90'), however, is difficult. METHODS:We developed a mathematical model (henceforth referred to as 'Shiny90') that formally synthesizes population-based survey and HTS program data to estimate HIV status awareness over time. The proposed model uses country-specific HIV epidemic parameters from the standard UNAIDS Spectrum model to produce outputs that are consistent with other national HIV estimates. Shiny90 provides estimates of HIV testing history, diagnosis rates, and knowledge of HIV status by age and sex. We validate Shiny90 using both in-sample comparisons and out-of-sample predictions using data from three countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, and Mozambique. RESULTS:In-sample comparisons suggest that Shiny90 can accurately reproduce longitudinal sex-specific trends in HIV testing. Out-of-sample predictions of the fraction of people living with HIV ever tested over a 4-to-6-year time horizon are also in good agreement with empirical survey estimates. Importantly, out-of-sample predictions of HIV knowledge of status are consistent (i.e. within 4% points) with those of the fully calibrated model in the three countries when HTS program data are included. The model's predictions of knowledge of status are higher than available self-reported HIV awareness estimates, however, suggesting - in line with previous studies - that these self-reports could be affected by nondisclosure of HIV status awareness. CONCLUSION:Knowledge of HIV status is a key indicator to monitor progress, identify bottlenecks, and target HIV responses. Shiny90 can help countries track progress towards their 'first 90' by leveraging surveys of HIV testing behaviors and annual HTS program data.

SUBMITTER: Maheu-Giroux M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6919235 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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National HIV testing and diagnosis coverage in sub-Saharan Africa: a new modeling tool for estimating the 'first 90' from program and survey data.

Maheu-Giroux Mathieu M Marsh Kimberly K Doyle Carla M CM Godin Arnaud A Lanièce Delaunay Charlotte C Johnson Leigh F LF Jahn Andreas A Abo Kouamé K Mbofana Francisco F Boily Marie-Claude MC Buckeridge David L DL Hankins Catherine A CA Eaton Jeffrey W JW

AIDS (London, England) 20191201

<h4>Objective</h4>HIV testing services (HTS) are a crucial component of national HIV responses. Learning one's HIV diagnosis is the entry point to accessing life-saving antiretroviral treatment and care. Recognizing the critical role of HTS, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) launched the 90-90-90 targets stipulating that by 2020, 90% of people living with HIV know their status, 90% of those who know their status receive antiretroviral therapy, and 90% of those on treatment ...[more]

PMID: 31764066

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Project description:IntroductionHIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small-area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five-year age groups.MethodsSmall-area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART. Incidence was modelled by district-level HIV prevalence and ART coverage. Model outputs of counts and rates for each indicator were aggregated to multiple geographic and demographic stratifications of interest. The model was estimated in an empirical Bayes framework, furnishing probabilistic uncertainty ranges for all output indicators. Example results were presented using data from Malawi during 2016-2018.ResultsAdult HIV prevalence in September 2018 ranged from 3.2% to 17.1% across Malawi's districts and was higher in southern districts and in metropolitan areas. ART coverage was more homogenous, ranging from 75% to 82%. The largest number of PLHIV was among ages 35 to 39 for both women and men, while the most untreated PLHIV were among ages 25 to 29 for women and 30 to 34 for men. Relative uncertainty was larger for the untreated PLHIV than the number on ART or total PLHIV. Among clients receiving ART at facilities in Lilongwe city, an estimated 71% (95% CI, 61% to 79%) resided in Lilongwe city, 20% (14% to 27%) in Lilongwe district outside the metropolis, and 9% (6% to 12%) in neighbouring Dowa district. Thirty-eight percent (26% to 50%) of Lilongwe rural residents and 39% (27% to 50%) of Dowa residents received treatment at facilities in Lilongwe city.ConclusionsThe Naomi model synthesizes multiple subnational data sources to furnish estimates of key indicators for HIV programme planning, resource allocation, and target setting. Further model development to meet evolving HIV policy priorities and programme need should be accompanied by continued strengthening and understanding of routine health system data.

Project description:ABSTRACT Background: HIV/AIDS programmes and organisations around the world use routinely updated estimates of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets to track progress and prioritise further programme implementation. Any bias in these estimates has the potential to mislead organisations on where gaps exist in HIV testing and treatment programmes. Objective: To measure the extent of undisclosed HIV testing history and its impact on estimating the proportion of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who know their HIV status (the ‘first 90’ of the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets). Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population-based HIV serological surveillance conducted between 2010 and 2016 and linked, directly observed HIV testing records in Kisesa, Tanzania. Generalised estimating equations logistic regression models were used to detect associations with non-disclosure of HIV testing history adjusting for demographic, behavioural, and clinical characteristics. We compared estimates of the ‘first 90’ using self-reported survey data only and augmented estimates using information from linked records to quantify the absolute and relative impact of undisclosed HIV testing history. Results: Numbers of participants in each of the survey rounds ranged from 7171 to 7981 with an average HIV prevalence of 6.9%. Up to 33% of those who tested HIV-positive and 34% of those who tested HIV-negative did not disclose their HIV testing history. The proportion of PLHIV who reported knowing their status increased from 34% in 2010 to 65% in 2016. Augmented estimates including information from directly observed testing history resulted in an absolute impact of 6.7 percentage points and relative impact of 12.4%. Conclusions: In this population, self-reported testing history in population-based HIV serological surveys under-estimated the percentage of HIV positives that are diagnosed by a relative factor of 12%. Research should be employed in other surveillance systems that benefit from linked data to investigate how bias may vary across settings.

Project description:ObjectivesIn sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where HIV burden is highest, access to testing, a key entry point for prevention and treatment, remains low for adolescents (aged 10-19). Access may be hampered by policies requiring parental consent for adolescents to receive HIV testing services (HTS). In 2013, the WHO recommended countries to review HTS age of consent policies. Here, we investigate country progress and policies on age of consent for HIV testing.DesignComprehensive policy review.Data sourcesPolicies addressing HTS were obtained through searching WHO repositories and governmental and non-governmental websites and consulting country and regional experts.Eligibility criteriaHTS policies published by SSA governments before 2019 that included age of consent.Data extraction and synthesisData were extracted on HTS age of consent including exceptions based on risk and maturity. Descriptive analyses of included policies were disaggregated by Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and Western and Central Africa (WCA) subregions.ResultsThirty-nine policies were reviewed, 38 were eligible; 19/38 (50%) permitted HTS for adolescents ≤16 years old without parental consent. Of these, six allowed HTS at ≥12 years old, two at ≥13, two at ≥14, five at ≥15 and four at ≥16. In ESA, 71% (n=15/21) allowed those of ≤16 years old to access HTS, while only 24% (n=6/25) of WCA countries allowed the same. Maturity exceptions including marriage, sexual activity, pregnancy or key population were identified in 18 policies. In 2019, 63% (n=19/30) of policies with clear age-based criteria allowed adolescents of 12-16 years old to access HIV testing without parental consent, an increase from 37% (n=14/38) in 2013.ConclusionsWhile many countries in SSA have revised their HTS policies, many do not specify age of consent. Revision of SSA consent to HTS policies, particularly in WCA, remains a priority to achieve the 2025 goal of 95% of people with HIV knowing their status.

Project description:BackgroundPrenatal screening of pregnant women for HIV is central to eliminating mother-to-child-transmission (MTCT) of HIV. While some countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have scaled up their prevention of MTCT programmes, ensuring a near-universal prenatal care HIV testing, and recording a significant reduction in new infection among children, several others have poor outcomes due to inadequate testing. We conducted a multi-country analysis of demographic and health surveys (DHS) to assess the coverage of HIV testing during pregnancy and also examine the factors associated with uptake.MethodsWe analysed data of 64,933 women from 16 SSA countries with recent DHS datasets (2015-2018) using Stata version 16. Adjusted and unadjusted logistic regression models were used to examine correlates of prenatal care uptake of HIV testing. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05.ResultsProgress in scaling up of prenatal care HIV testing was uneven across SSA, with only 6.1% of pregnant women tested in Chad compared to 98.1% in Rwanda. While inequality in access to HIV testing among pregnant women is pervasive in most SSA countries and particularly in West and Central Africa sub-regions, a few countries, including Rwanda, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Malawi and Zambia have managed to eliminate wealth and rural-urban inequalities in access to prenatal care HIV testing.ConclusionOur findings highlight the between countries and sub-regional disparities in prenatal care uptake of HIV testing in SSA. Even though no country has universal coverage of prenatal care HIV testing, East and Southern African regions have made remarkable progress towards ensuring no pregnant woman is left untested. However, the West and Central Africa regions had low coverage of prenatal care testing, with the rich and well educated having better access to testing, while the poor rarely tested. Addressing the inequitable access and coverage of HIV testing among pregnant women is vital in these sub-regions.

Project description:BackgroundAlthough religious affiliation has been identified as a potential barrier to immunization in some African countries, there are no systematic multi-country analyses, including within-country variability, on this issue. We investigated whether immunization varied according to religious affiliation and sex of the child in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries.MethodsWe used data from 15 nationally representative surveys from 2010 to 2016. The major religious groups were described by country in terms of wealth, residence, and education. Proportions of fully immunized and unvaccinated children were stratified by country, maternal religion, and sex of the child. Poisson regression with robust variance was used to assess whether the outcomes varied according to religion, with and without adjustment for the above cited sociodemographic confounders. Interactions between child sex and religion were investigated.ResultsFifteen countries had >10% of families affiliated with Christianity and >10% affiliated with Islam, and four also had >10% practicing folk religions. In general, Christians were wealthier, more educated and more urban. Nine countries had significantly lower full immunization coverage among Muslims than Christians (pooled prevalence ratio = 0.81; 95%CI: 0.79-0.83), of which seven remained significant after adjustment for confounders (pooled ratio = 0.90; 0.87-0.92). Four countries had higher coverage among Muslims, of which two remained significant after adjustment. Regarding unvaccinated children, six countries showed higher proportions among Muslims, all of which remained significant after adjustment [crude pooled ratio = 1.83 (1.59-2.07); adjusted = 1.31 (1.14-1.48)]. Children from families practicing folk religions did not show any consistent patterns in immunization. Child sex was not consistently associated with vaccination.ConclusionMuslim religion was associated with lower vaccine coverage in several SSA countries, both for boys and girls. The involvement of religious leaders is essential for increasing immunization coverage and supporting the leave no one behind agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Project description:Sub-Saharan Africa represents 69% of the total number of individuals living with HIV infection worldwide and 72% of AIDS deaths globally. Pulmonary infection is a common and frequently fatal complication, though little is known regarding the lower airway microbiome composition of this population. Our objectives were to characterize the lower airway microbiome of Ugandan HIV-infected patients with pneumonia, to determine relationships with demographic, clinical, immunological, and microbiological variables and to compare the composition and predicted metagenome of these communities to a comparable cohort of patients in the US (San Francisco). Bronchoalveolar lavage samples from a cohort of 60 Ugandan HIV-infected patients with acute pneumonia were collected. Amplified 16S ribosomal RNA was profiled and aforementioned relationships examined. Ugandan airway microbiome composition and predicted metagenomic function were compared to US HIV-infected pneumonia patients. Among the most common bacterial pulmonary pathogens, Pseudomonas aeruginosa was most prevalent in the Ugandan cohort. Patients with a richer and more diverse airway microbiome exhibited lower bacterial burden, enrichment of members of the Lachnospiraceae and sulfur-reducing bacteria and reduced expression of TNF-alpha and matrix metalloproteinase-9. Compared to San Franciscan patients, Ugandan airway microbiome were significantly richer, and compositionally distinct with predicted metagenomes that encoded a multitude of distinct pathogenic pathways e.g secretion systems. Ugandan pneumonia-associated airway microbiome is compositionally and functionally distinct from those detected in comparable patients in developed countries, a feature which may contribute to adverse outcomes in this population. Please note that the data from the comparable cohort of patients in the USUS data was published as supplemental material of PMID: 22760045 but not submitted to GEO The 'patient_info.txt' contains 12 clinical, 7 immunological and 3 microbiological variables for each patient.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:We aimed to establish how effective community-based HIV testing services (HTS), including home and community location based (non-health facility) HIV testing services (HB-/CLB-HTS), are in improving care in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with a view to achieving the 90-90-90 targets. METHODS:We conducted a systematic review of published literature from 2007-17 which reported on the proportion of individuals who link-to-care and/or initiate ART after detection with HIV through community-based testing. A meta-analysis was deemed inappropriate due to heterogeneity in reporting. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:Twenty-five care cascades from 6 SSA countries were examined in the final review- 15 HB-HTS, 8 CLB-HTS, 2 combined HB-/CLB-HTS. Proportions linked-to-care over 1-12 months ranged from 14-96% for HB-HTS and 10-79% for CLB-HTS, with most studies reporting outcomes over short periods (3 months). Fewer studies reported ART-related outcomes following community-based testing and most of these studies included <50 HIV-positive individuals. Proportions initiating ART ranged from 23-93%. One study reported retention on ART (76% 6 months after initiation). Viral suppression 3-12 months following ART initiation was 77-85% in three studies which reported this. There was variability in definitions of outcomes, numerators/denominators and observation periods. Outcomes varied between studies even for similar time-points since HTS. The methodological inconsistencies hamper comparisons. Previously diagnosed individuals appear more likely to link-to-care than those who reported being newly-diagnosed. It appears that individuals diagnosed in the community need time before they are ready to link-to-care/initiate ART. Point-of-care (POC) CD4-counts at the time of HTS did not achieve higher proportions linking-to-care or initiating ART. Similarly, follow-up visits to HIV-positive individuals did not appear to enhance linkage to care overall. CONCLUSION:This systematic review summarises the available data on linkage to care/ART initiation following community-based detection of HIV, to help researchers and policy makers evaluate findings. The available evidence suggests that different approaches to community-based HTS including HB-HTS and CLB-HTS, are equally effective in achieving linkage to care and ART initiation among those detected. Engagement and support for newly diagnosed individuals may be key to achieving all three UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets. We also recommend that standardised measures of reporting of steps on the cascade of care are needed, to measure progress against targets and compare across settings.

Dataset Information

National HIV testing and diagnosis coverage in sub-Saharan Africa: a new modeling tool for estimating the 'first 90' from program and survey data.

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National HIV testing and diagnosis coverage in sub-Saharan Africa: a new modeling tool for estimating the 'first 90' from program and survey data.

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