Dataset Information

Statistical inference in ensemble modeling of cellular metabolism.

ABSTRACT: Kinetic models of metabolism can be constructed to predict cellular regulation and devise metabolic engineering strategies, and various promising computational workflows have been developed in recent years for this. Due to the uncertainty in the kinetic parameter values required to build kinetic models, these workflows rely on ensemble modeling (EM) principles for sampling and building populations of models describing observed physiologies. Sensitivity coefficients from metabolic control analysis (MCA) of kinetic models can provide important insight about cellular control around a given physiological steady state. However, despite considering populations of kinetic models and their model outputs, current approaches do not provide adequate tools for statistical inference. To derive conclusions from model outputs, such as MCA sensitivity coefficients, it is necessary to rank/compare populations of variables with each other. Currently existing workflows consider confidence intervals (CIs) that are derived independently for each comparable variable. Hence, it is important to derive simultaneous CIs for the variables that we wish to rank/compare. Herein, we used an existing large-scale kinetic model of Escherichia Coli metabolism to present how univariate CIs can lead to incorrect conclusions, and we present a new workflow that applies three different multivariate statistical approaches. We use the Bonferroni and the exact normal methods to build symmetric CIs using the normality assumptions. We then suggest how bootstrapping can compute asymmetric CIs whilst relaxing this normality assumption. We conclude that the Bonferroni and the exact normal methods can provide simple and efficient ways for constructing reliable CIs, with the exact normal method favored over the Bonferroni when the compared variables present dependencies. Bootstrapping, despite its significantly higher computational cost, is recommended when comparing non-normal distributions of variables. Additionally, we show how the Bonferroni method can readily be used to estimate required sample numbers to attain a certain CI size.

SUBMITTER: Hameri T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6922442 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Statistical inference in ensemble modeling of cellular metabolism.

Hameri Tuure T Boldi Marc-Olivier MO Hatzimanikatis Vassily V

PLoS computational biology 20191209 12

Kinetic models of metabolism can be constructed to predict cellular regulation and devise metabolic engineering strategies, and various promising computational workflows have been developed in recent years for this. Due to the uncertainty in the kinetic parameter values required to build kinetic models, these workflows rely on ensemble modeling (EM) principles for sampling and building populations of models describing observed physiologies. Sensitivity coefficients from metabolic control analysi ...[more]

PMID: 31815929

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Project description:Cell population heterogeneity can affect cellular response and is a major factor in drug resistance. However, there are few techniques available to represent and explore how heterogeneity is linked to population response. Recent high-throughput genomic, proteomic, and cellomic approaches offer opportunities for profiling heterogeneity on several scales. We have recently examined heterogeneity in vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR) membrane localization in endothelial cells. We and others processed the heterogeneous data through ensemble averaging and integrated the data into computational models of anti-angiogenic drug effects in breast cancer. Here we show that additional modeling insight can be gained when cellular heterogeneity is considered. We present comprehensive statistical and computational methods for analyzing cellomic data sets and integrating them into deterministic models. We present a novel method for optimizing the fit of statistical distributions to heterogeneous data sets to preserve important data and exclude outliers. We compare methods of representing heterogeneous data and show methodology can affect model predictions up to 3.9-fold. We find that VEGF levels, a target for tuning angiogenesis, are more sensitive to VEGFR1 cell surface levels than VEGFR2; updating VEGFR1 levels in the tumor model gave a 64% change in free VEGF levels in the blood compartment, whereas updating VEGFR2 levels gave a 17% change. Furthermore, we find that subpopulations of tumor cells and tumor endothelial cells (tEC) expressing high levels of VEGFR (>35,000 VEGFR/cell) negate anti-VEGF treatments. We show that lowering the VEGFR membrane insertion rate for these subpopulations recovers the anti-angiogenic effect of anti-VEGF treatment, revealing new treatment targets for specific tumor cell subpopulations. This novel method of characterizing heterogeneous distributions shows for the first time how different representations of the same data set lead to different predictions of drug efficacy.

Dataset Information

Statistical inference in ensemble modeling of cellular metabolism.

Publications

Statistical inference in ensemble modeling of cellular metabolism.

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