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Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting early recurrence after curative resection of stage II/III gastric cancer.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The biological behavior of early recurrence is more invasive and the prognosis is worse in gastric cancer (GC). The risk of early recurrence (ER) for GC in stage II/III has not been reported of which the majority of GC patients are in China. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the ER of gastric cancer in stage II/III. METHODS:The medical records of 1511 consecutive stage II/III GC patients who received resections were retrospectively reviewed. They were randomly classified into either a development or validation group at a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was constructed based on prognostic factors using logistic regression analysis and was validated by bootstrap resampling and validation dataset, respectively. Concordance index (C-index) values and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and discriminatory capability. RESULTS:Three hundred eleven patients experienced ER, accounting for 20.58% of the GC patients investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified tumors located at upper, middle third, or mixed, a positive lymph node ratio ? 0.335, pTNM stage III, lymphocyte count < 1.5 × 109/L, postoperative infection complications and adjuvant chemotherapy < 6?cycles were all independent predictors for ER after curative resection of stage II/III GC. The C-index value obtained for the model was 0.780 (95% CI, 0.747-0.813), and the calibration curves of validation group yielded a C-index value of 0.739 (95% CI, 0.684-0.794), suggesting the practicability of the model. CONCLUSIONS:The nomogram which was developed for predicting ER of stage II/III GC after surgery had good accuracy and was verified through both internal and external validation. The nomogram established can assist clinicians in determining the optimal therapy strategies in counseling, adjuvant treatments, and subsequent follow-up planning.

SUBMITTER: Ma M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6923869 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting early recurrence after curative resection of stage II/III gastric cancer.

Ma Min M Xiao Haifan H Li Liang L Yin Xianli X Zhou Huijun H Quan Hu H Ouyang Yongzhong Y Huang Gang G Li Xiaorong X Xiao Hua H

World journal of surgical oncology 20191219 1

<h4>Background</h4>The biological behavior of early recurrence is more invasive and the prognosis is worse in gastric cancer (GC). The risk of early recurrence (ER) for GC in stage II/III has not been reported of which the majority of GC patients are in China. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the ER of gastric cancer in stage II/III.<h4>Methods</h4>The medical records of 1511 consecutive stage II/III GC patients who received resections were retrospectively reviewed. They were randomly class ...[more]

PMID: 31856828

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Project description:Objective: We sought to investigate the prognostic significance of body composition and weight change during the first 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy after R0 resection and develop novel nomograms to accurately predict relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Methods: This retrospective study included 190 patients who underwent curative radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer and received adjuvant chemotherapy. The changes in weight and body composition including skeletal muscle index (SMI), subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) were analyzed for 6 months. LASSO Cox regression and multivariate Cox regression were conducted to evaluate other clinical characteristics, which were used to construct a nomogram for the prediction of 3- and 5-year RFS and OS. The constructed nomogram was subjected to 1,000 resamples bootstrap for internal validation. The Concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (t-ROC) curves were used to evaluate and compare the discriminative abilities of the new nomograms, non-nutritional nomograms, and pTNM stage. Results: The median follow-up duration was 42.0 (25.2-55.1) months. Factors included in the newly-built nomogram for RFS were pT stage, pN stage, tumor site, tumor size, nerve invasion or not, surgery type, and change of L3SMI, while factors included in the nomogram for OS were pT stage, pN stage, tumor size, nerve invasion or not, surgery type, and change of L3SMI. The C-index and t-ROC indicated that our newly-built nomograms had greater potential to accurately predict prognosis than the non-nutritional nomograms and pTNM stage system. Besides, oral nutritional supplements can reduce the degree of weight and L3SMI loss. Conclusion: Change in skeletal muscle mass during adjuvant chemotherapy can be incorporated into predictive prognostic nomograms for RFS and OS in GC patients after radical resection. Dynamic changes in body composition and weight during adjuvant chemotherapy contribute to the early detection of poor outcomes.

Project description:BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to develop a large population-based nomogram incorporating the log odds of positive nodes (LODDS) for predicting the overall survival (OS) of stage II/III rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by surgical resection.MethodsThe Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to collect information on patients diagnosed with stage II/III rectal cancer between 2010 and 2015 and treated with NCRT followed by surgical resection. The Cox regression analyses were performed to determine the independent prognostic factors. In this study, LODDS was employed instead of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th N stage to determine lymph node status. Then a nomogram integrating independent prognostic factors was developed to predict the 24-, 36-, and 60-month overall survival. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves were used to validate the nomogram. Furthermore, patients were stratified into three risk groups (high-, middle-, and low-risk) based on the total points obtained from the nomogram. And Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to compare the OS of the three groups.ResultsA total of 3829 patients were included in the study. Race, sex, age, marital status, T stage, tumor grade, tumor size, LODDS, CEA level, and postoperative chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors, based on which the prognostic nomogram was developed. The area under curve values of the nomogram for the 24-, 36-, and 60-month OS in the training cohort were 0.736, 0.720, and 0.688, respectively; and 0.691, 0.696, and 0.694 in the validation cohort, respectively. In both the validation and training cohorts, the calibration curves showed a high degree of consistency between actual and nomogram-predicted survival rates. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the three risk groups had significant differences in overall survival (P < 0.001).ConclusionA large population-based nomogram incorporating LODDS was developed to assist in evaluating the prognosis of stage II/III rectal cancer patients treated with NCRT followed by surgical resection. The nomogram showed a satisfactorily discriminative and stable ability to predict the OS for those patients.

Project description:BACKGROUND:High-quality randomized controlled trials have demonstrated the benefit of radiotherapy (RT) in patients with radical resected gastric cancer (GC), however, utilization rates of postoperative RT remain remarkably low. Patterns, incidences, and time of recurrence provide biological bases for clinical monitoring of GC patients and guiding potential complementary therapies. Thus, the aim of this study is to understand the location of locoregional recurrence which may allow individualized RT strategies and minimize radiation-related toxic effects. METHODS:A relatively large sample of GC patients in a single institution who had undergone curative D2 resection was retrospectively reviewed and the relevant recurrence patterns were illustrated. Independent recurrence-related risk factors were analyzed by logistic regression analysis. New logistic regression models were further developed to predict the probability of recurrence. RESULTS:Overall, among 776 GC patients who had continuous and complete follow-up data, 300 cases relapsed after curative resection. Lymphovascular invasion, lymph node metastases, and tumor stage were indicators for early recurrence. Peritoneal, regional, local, and distant recurrence initially occurred in 51 (6.6%), 151 (19.4%), 56 (7.2%), and 164 (21.1%) patients, respectively. Among patients with regional recurrence, the most common sites were lymph node stations 16a2, 8, 12, 16b1, and 9. Remnant stomach recurrence was not so prominent that it seemed reasonable to be excluded from an irradiation field for patients with negative surgical/pathologic margins. CONCLUSIONS:For GC patients who underwent radical D2 resection, distant and regional recurrences were still common. Besides, optimizing regional control of lymph nodes outside the D2 dissected area was crucial for rational design of the RT field. Furthermore, the new logistic regression models might act as useful tools to evaluate recurrence risk and determine which patients should receive postoperative chemoradiotherapy.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting early recurrence after curative resection of stage II/III gastric cancer.

Publications

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting early recurrence after curative resection of stage II/III gastric cancer.

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