Dataset Information

Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models.

ABSTRACT: Being a globally emerging mite-borne zoonotic disease, scrub typhus is a serious public health concern in Nepal. Mapping environmental suitability and quantifying the human population under risk of the disease is important for prevention and control efforts. In this study, we model and map the environmental suitability of scrub typhus using the ecological niche approach, machine learning modeling techniques, and report locations of scrub typhus along with several climatic, topographic, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and proximity explanatory variables and estimated population under the risk of disease at a national level. Both MaxEnt and RF technique results reveal robust predictive power with test The area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) of above 0.8 and 0.6, respectively. Spatial prediction reveals that environmentally suitable areas of scrub typhus are widely distributed across the country particularly in the low-land Tarai and less elevated river valleys. We found that areas close to agricultural land with gentle slopes have higher suitability of scrub typhus occurrence. Despite several speculations on the association between scrub typhus and proximity to earthquake epicenters, we did not find a significant role of proximity to earthquake epicenters in the distribution of scrub typhus in Nepal. About 43% of the population living in highly suitable areas for scrub typhus are at higher risk of infection, followed by 29% living in suitable areas of moderate-risk, and about 22% living in moderately suitable areas of lower risk. These findings could be useful in selecting priority areas for surveillance and control strategies effectively.

SUBMITTER: Acharya BK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6926588 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models.

Acharya Bipin Kumar BK Chen Wei W Ruan Zengliang Z Pant Gobind Prasad GP Yang Yin Y Shah Lalan Prasad LP Cao Chunxiang C Xu Zhiwei Z Dhimal Meghnath M Lin Hualiang H

International journal of environmental research and public health 20191202 23

Being a globally emerging mite-borne zoonotic disease, scrub typhus is a serious public health concern in Nepal. Mapping environmental suitability and quantifying the human population under risk of the disease is important for prevention and control efforts. In this study, we model and map the environmental suitability of scrub typhus using the ecological niche approach, machine learning modeling techniques, and report locations of scrub typhus along with several climatic, topographic, Normalize ...[more]

PMID: 31810239

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Project description:BackgroundScrub typhus is a largely ignored tropical disease and a leading cause of undifferentiated febrile illness in the areas of tsutsugamushi triangle caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. It is frequently diagnosed in South Asian countries, although clear epidemiological information is not available from Nepal. After the 2015 earthquake in Nepal, a sudden upsurge in scrub typhus cases was reported. The objective of this study was to investigate epidemiology of scrub typhus and its causative agents in humans, animals, and chigger mites to understand the ongoing transmission ecology.MethodsScrub typhus cases with confirmed diagnosis throughout the country were included in the analysis. Studies were concentrated in the Chitwan district, the site of a major outbreak in 2016. Additional nation-wide data from 2015 to 2017 available from the government database included to analyse the disease distribution by geographical mapping.ResultsFrom 2015 to 2017, 1239 scrub typhus cases were confirmed with the largest outbreak occurring in 2016 with 831 (67.1%) cases. The case fatality rate was 5.7% in 2015 which declined to 1.1% in 2017. A nationwide outbreak of scrub typhus was declared as the cases were detected in 52 out of the 75 districts of Nepal. Seasonal trend was observed with a peak during August and September. In addition to the human cases, the presence of O. tsutsugamushi was also confirmed in animals (rodents) and chigger mites (Leptotrombidium imphalum) from the outbreak areas of southern Nepal.ConclusionThe detection of O. tsutsugamushi in humans, animals, and chigger mites from outbreak locations and wide-spread reports of scrub typhus throughout the country consecutively for 3 years confirms the ongoing transmission of O. tsutsugamushi with a firmly established ecology in Nepal. The country's health system needs to be strengthened for systematic surveillance, early outbreak detection, and immediate actions including treatment and preventive measures.

Project description:ObjectivesScrub typhus is an emerging neglected tropical disease, reported from many parts of Asia including Nepal. This study aims to determine the seroepidemiology of scrub typhus among febrile patients attending Chitwan Medical College Teaching Hospital (CMC-TH), Bharatpur, Nepal.Study design and settingThis was a hospital laboratory-based prospective study conducted in CMC-TH (a 750-bed hospital) located in Bharatpur, Chitwan district of Nepal.ParticipantsA total of 1797 patients visiting CMC-TH with acute febrile illness (temperature more than 38°C) were enrolled in this study.MethodsA total of 1797 blood samples were collected from patients presenting with acute febrile illness. The samples were processed for detection of antibody for scrub typhus by ELISA for specific IgM antibody and Weil-Felix test.ResultsOut of 1797 serum sample of febrile patients, 524 (29.2%) were scrub typhus positive. Maximum seropositive cases were from Chitwan district, 271 (51.7%) with predominance among women, 314 (35.9%). Scrub typhus was common among age group 51-60 years (37.2%) and farmers, 182 (37.8%). Highest seropositivity was found in July, 60 (57.7%). Fever was common clinical symptom. Thrombocytopenia was seen in 386 (73.7%) and raised transaminase aspartate aminotransferase, 399 (76.1%) among seropositive cases. Weil-Felix test positive were 397 (22.1%) and IgM ELISA positive were 524 (29.2%). The correlation between IgM ELISA and Weil-Felix test showed statistically significant association (r=0.319, p<0.001).ConclusionHigh prevalence of scrub typhus implies that patients with acute febrile illness should be investigated for scrub typhus with high priority. There is utmost need of reliable diagnostic facilities at all levels of healthcare system in Nepal. Infection with scrub typhus was found high and this calls for an urgent need to introduce vaccine against scrub typhus. More sustain and vigorous awareness programmes need to be promoted for early diagnosis, treatment and control.

Project description:(1) Background: Scrub typhus (ST) is endemic to Nepal. It is often underdiagnosed and misdiagnosed due to non-specific clinical presentation coupled with limited microbiological facilities, leading to adverse clinical outcomes. This study aimed to assess the seroprevalence of scrub typhus in febrile patients attending Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital (STIDH), Nepal, from August 2018 to April 2019. (2) Materials and Method: Blood/serum samples and clinical and demographic data of adult febrile patients (≥19 years) who attended or were referred to the hospital were collected after obtaining written informed consent from the participants excluding immunocompromised individuals. Collected blood/serum samples were subjected to hematological, biochemical, and serological tests. A serological test for scrub typhus was performed using the ImmuneMed scrub typhus rapid diagnostic test kit. Data generated were analyzed using SPSS software version 24.0. (3) Results: Amongst the 2070 febrile patients, 462 (22.3%) were seropositive to at least one etiological agent of febrile illnesses (scrub typhus: 253 cases, dengue: 101 cases, leptospirosis: 9, brucellosis: 52, malaria: 9 and kala-azar: 20 cases). Scrub typhus accounted for 12.2% (n = 253) of total febrile illnesses followed by dengue (4.9%, n = 101). Mixed seropositivity of scrub typhus with dengue, brucellosis, and typhoid was found in 12 (0.6%), 9 (0.4%), and 5 (0.2%) cases, respectively. Among 253 scrub typhus patients, 53.4% were female. Among the 154 patients, the most common symptoms were fever (100%), headache (79.2%), sweating (70.1%), breathing difficulty (51.3%), redness of the eye (43.5%), and pathognomonic eschar was observed in 9.1% patients. Fifty percent of scrub typhus patients had low platelet count and >30% of patients had an elevated level of liver enzymes (such as serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase (SGPT) and serum glutamic pyruvic transaminase (SGOT). (4) Conclusion: Scrub typhus is a considerable cause of febrile illness in Nepal. Females apparently have a higher chance of acquiring scrub typhus. ST presents nonspecific clinical presentation. The diagnostic dilemma of typhus patients can be minimized by the early monitoring of ST-associated symptoms. The country's health system needs to be strengthened for early outbreak detection, and immediate response actions against scrub typhus to control the future outbreak of ST.

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Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models.

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Mapping Environmental Suitability of Scrub Typhus in Nepal Using MaxEnt and Random Forest Models.

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