Dataset Information

A geographically weighted random forest approach for evaluate forest change drivers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon.

ABSTRACT: The Tropical Andes region includes biodiversity hotspots of high conservation priority whose management strategies depend on the analysis of forest dynamics drivers (FDDs). These depend on complex social and ecological interactions that manifest on different space-time scales and are commonly evaluated through regression analysis of multivariate datasets. However, processing such datasets is challenging, especially when time series are used and inconsistencies in data collection complicate their integration. Moreover, regression analysis in FDD characterization has been criticized for failing to capture spatial variability; therefore, alternatives such as geographically weighted regression (GWR) have been proposed, but their sensitivity to multicollinearity has not yet been solved. In this scenario, we present an innovative methodology that combines techniques to: 1) derive remote sensing time series products; 2) improve census processing with dasymetric mapping; 3) combine GWR and random forest (RF) to derive local variables importance; and 4) report results based in a clustering and hypothesis testing. We applied this methodology in the northwestern Ecuadorian Amazon, a highly heterogeneous region characterized by different active fronts of deforestation and reforestation, within the time period 2000-2010. Our objective was to identify linkages between these processes and validate the potential of the proposed methodology. Our findings indicate that land-use intensity proxies can be extracted from remote sensing time series, while intercensal analysis can be facilitated by calculating population density maps. Moreover, our implementation of GWR with RF achieved accurate predictions above the 74% using the out-of-bag samples, demonstrating that derived RF features can be used to construct hypothesis and discuss forest change drivers with more detailed information. In the other hand, our analysis revealed contrasting effects between deforestation and reforestation for variables related to suitability to agriculture and accessibility to its facilities, which is also reflected according patch size, land cover and population dynamics patterns. This approach demonstrates the benefits of integrating remote sensing-derived products and socioeconomic data to understand coupled socioecological systems more from a local than a global scale.

SUBMITTER: Santos F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6927660 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A geographically weighted random forest approach for evaluate forest change drivers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon.

Santos Fabián F Graw Valerie V Bonilla Santiago S

PloS one 20191223 12

The Tropical Andes region includes biodiversity hotspots of high conservation priority whose management strategies depend on the analysis of forest dynamics drivers (FDDs). These depend on complex social and ecological interactions that manifest on different space-time scales and are commonly evaluated through regression analysis of multivariate datasets. However, processing such datasets is challenging, especially when time series are used and inconsistencies in data collection complicate their ...[more]

PMID: 31869346

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Project description:BackgroundSome studies have established associations between the prevalence of new-onset asthma and asthma exacerbation and socioeconomic and environmental determinants. However, research remains limited concerning the shape of these associations, the importance of the risk factors, and how these factors vary geographically.ObjectiveWe aimed (1) to examine ecological associations between asthma prevalence and multiple socio-physical determinants in the United States; and (2) to assess geographic variations in their relative importance.MethodsOur study design is cross sectional based on county-level data for 2020 across the United States. We obtained self-reported asthma prevalence data of adults aged 18 years or older for each county. We applied conventional and geographically weighted random forest (GWRF) to investigate the associations between asthma prevalence and socioeconomic (e.g., poverty) and environmental determinants (e.g., air pollution and green space). To enhance the interpretability of the GWRF, we (1) assessed the shape of the associations through partial dependence plots, (2) ranked the determinants according to their global importance scores, and (3) mapped the local variable importance spatially.ResultsOf the 3059 counties, the average asthma prevalence was 9.9 (standard deviation ± 0.99). The GWRF outperformed the conventional random forest. We found an indication, for example, that temperature was inversely associated with asthma prevalence, while poverty showed positive associations. The partial dependence plots showed that these associations had a non-linear shape. Ranking the socio-physical environmental factors concerning their global importance showed that smoking prevalence and depression prevalence were most relevant, while green space and limited language were of minor relevance. The local variable importance measures showed striking geographical differences.ConclusionOur findings strengthen the evidence that socio-physical environments play a role in explaining asthma prevalence, but their relevance seems to vary geographically. The results are vital for implementing future asthma prevention programs that should be tailor-made for specific areas.

Dataset Information

A geographically weighted random forest approach for evaluate forest change drivers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon.

Publications

A geographically weighted random forest approach for evaluate forest change drivers in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon.

Similar Datasets

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