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Evidence of health inequity in child survival: spatial and Bayesian network analyses of stillbirth rates in 194 countries.

ABSTRACT: Estimated at 2.6 million annually, stillbirths worldwide have stayed alarmingly high, in contrast to neonatal and under-five mortality rates. It is a neglected public health challenge globally, with less attention to its social determinants. We examined spatial patterns of country-level stillbirth rates and determined the influence of social determinants of health on spatial patterns of stillbirth rates. We also estimated probabilistic relationships between stillbirth rates and significant determinants from the spatial analysis. Using country-level aggregated data from the United Nations databases, it employed ecological spatial analysis and artificial intelligence modeling based on Bayesian network among 194 World Health Organization member countries. From the spatial analysis, thirty-seven countries formed a cluster of high values (hot-spots) for stillbirth and 13 countries formed a cluster of low values (cold-spots). In the multivariate regression, gender inequality and anaemia in pregnancy were significantly associated with spatial patterns of higher stillbirth rates, while higher antenatal care (ANC) coverage and skilled birth attendants during delivery were associated with clusters of lower stillbirth rates. The Bayesian network model suggests strong dependencies between stillbirth rate and gender inequality index, geographic regions and skilled birth attendants during delivery. The Bayesian network predicted that the probability of low stillbirth rate increased from 56% to 100% when the percentage of countries with high skilled birth attendants during delivery increased from 70% to 88%, high ANC coverage increased from 55% to 70%, high prevalence of anaemia in pregnancy decreased from 27% to 11% and high gender inequality index decreased from 43% to 21%. Recognizing the urgency in reducing stillbirths globally, multi-pronged strategies should be designed to promote gender equality and strengthen the reproductive and maternal health services in Africa, Eastern Mediterranean, South Eastern Asia, and other countries with disproportionately high stillbirth rates.

SUBMITTER: Adeyinka DA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6930217 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evidence of health inequity in child survival: spatial and Bayesian network analyses of stillbirth rates in 194 countries.

Adeyinka Daniel Adedayo DA Olakunde Babayemi Oluwaseun BO Muhajarine Nazeem N

Scientific reports 20191224 1

Estimated at 2.6 million annually, stillbirths worldwide have stayed alarmingly high, in contrast to neonatal and under-five mortality rates. It is a neglected public health challenge globally, with less attention to its social determinants. We examined spatial patterns of country-level stillbirth rates and determined the influence of social determinants of health on spatial patterns of stillbirth rates. We also estimated probabilistic relationships between stillbirth rates and significant deter ...[more]

PMID: 31875022

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Stillbirth rates remain nearly ten times higher in low-middle income countries (LMIC) than high income countries. In LMIC, where nearly 98% of stillbirths worldwide occur, few population-based studies have documented characteristics or care for mothers with stillbirths. Non-macerated stillbirths, those occurring around delivery, are generally considered preventable with appropriate obstetric care. METHODS:We undertook a prospective, population-based observational study of all pregnant women in defined geographic areas across 7 sites in low-resource settings (Kenya, Zambia, India, Pakistan, Guatemala and Argentina). Staff collected demographic and health care characteristics with outcomes obtained at delivery. RESULTS:From 2010 through 2013, 269,614 enrolled women had 272,089 births, including 7,865 stillbirths. The overall stillbirth rate was 28.9/1000 births, ranging from 13.6/1000 births in Argentina to 56.5/1000 births in Pakistan. Stillbirth rates were stable or declined in 6 of the 7 sites from 2010-2013, only increasing in Pakistan. Less educated, older and women with less access to antenatal care were at increased risk of stillbirth. Furthermore, women not delivered by a skilled attendant were more likely to have a stillbirth (RR 2.8, 95% CI 2.2, 3.5). Compared to live births, stillbirths were more likely to be preterm (RR 12.4, 95% CI 11.2, 13.6). Infants with major congenital anomalies were at increased risk of stillbirth (RR 9.1, 95% CI 7.3, 11.4), as were multiple gestations (RR 2.8, 95% CI 2.4, 3.2) and breech (RR 3.0, 95% CI 2.6, 3.5). Altogether, 67.4% of the stillbirths were non-macerated. 7.6% of women with stillbirths had cesarean sections, with obstructed labor the primary indication (36.9%). CONCLUSIONS:Stillbirth rates were high, but with reductions in most sites during the study period. Disadvantaged women, those with less antenatal care and those delivered without a skilled birth attendant were at increased risk of delivering a stillbirth. More than two-thirds of all stillbirths were non-macerated, suggesting potentially preventable stillbirth. Additionally, 8% of women with stillbirths were delivered by cesarean section. The relatively high rate of cesarean section among those with stillbirths suggested that this care was too late or not of quality to prevent the stillbirth; however, further research is needed to evaluate the quality of obstetric care, including cesarean section, on stillbirth in these low resource settings. STUDY REGISTRATION:Clinicaltrials.gov (ID# NCT01073475).

Project description:Importance:The first 1000 days of life represent a critical window for child development. Pregnancy, exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) period (0-6 months), and complementary feeding (CF) period (6-24 months) have different growth requirements, so separate considerations for intervention strategies are needed. No synthesis to date has attempted to quantify the associations of interventions under multiple domains of micronutrient and balanced energy protein and food supplements, deworming, maternal education, water sanitation, and hygiene across these 3 life periods with birth and growth outcomes. Objective:To determine the magnitude of association of interventions with birth and growth outcomes based on randomized clinical trials (RCTs) conducted in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) using Bayesian network meta-analyses. Data Sources:MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched from their inception up to August 14, 2018. Study Selection:Included were LMIC-based RCTs of interventions provided to pregnant women, infants (0-6 months), and children (6-24 months). Data Extraction and Synthesis:Two independent reviewers used a standardized data extraction and quality assessment form. Random-effects network meta-analyses were performed for each life period. Effect sizes are reported as odds ratios (ORs) and mean differences (MeanDiffs) for dichotomous and continuous outcomes, with 95% credible intervals (CrIs). This study calculated probabilities of interventions being superior to standard of care by at least a minimal clinically important difference. Main Outcomes and Measures:The study compared ORs on preterm birth and MeanDiffs on birth weight for pregnancy, length for age (LAZ) for EBF, and height for age (HAZ) for CF. Results:Among 302 061 participants in 169 randomized clinical trials, the network meta-analyses found several nutritional interventions that demonstrated greater association with improved birth and growth outcomes compared with standard of care. For instance, compared with standard of care, maternal supplements of multiple micronutrients showed reduced odds for preterm birth (OR, 0.54; 95% CrI, 0.27-0.97) and improved mean birth weight (MeanDiff, 0.08 kg; 95% CrI, 0.00-0.17 kg) but not LAZ during EBF (MeanDiff, -0.02; 95% CrI, -0.18 to 0.14). Supplementing infants and children with multiple micronutrients showed improved LAZ (MeanDiff, 0.20; 95% CrI, 0.03-0.35) and HAZ (MeanDiff, 0.14; 95% CrI, 0.02-0.25). The study found that pregnancy interventions generally had higher probabilities of a minimal clinically importance difference than the interventions for the EBF or CF in the first 1000 days of life. Conclusions and Relevance:These analyses highlight the importance of intervening early for child development, during pregnancy if possible. Results of this study suggest that there is a need to combine interventions from multiple domains and test for their effectiveness as a package.

Project description:ObjectiveCountries in sub-Saharan Africa suffer the highest rates of child mortality worldwide. Urban areas tend to have lower mortality than rural areas, but these comparisons likely mask large within-city inequalities. We aimed to estimate rates of under-five mortality (U5M) at the neighbourhood level for Ghana's Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) and measure the extent of intraurban inequalities.MethodsWe accessed data on >700 000 women aged 25-49 years living in GAMA using the most recent Ghana census (2010). We summarised counts of child births and deaths by five-year age group of women and neighbourhood (n=406) and applied indirect demographic methods to convert the summaries to yearly probabilities of death before age five years. We fitted a Bayesian spatiotemporal model to the neighbourhood U5M probabilities to obtain estimates for the year 2010 and examined their correlations with indicators of neighbourhood living and socioeconomic conditions.ResultsU5M varied almost five-fold across neighbourhoods in GAMA in 2010, ranging from 28 (95% credible interval (CrI) 8 to 63) to 138 (95% CrI 111 to 167) deaths per 1000 live births. U5M was highest in neighbourhoods of the central urban core and industrial areas, with an average of 95 deaths per 1000 live births across these neighbourhoods. Peri-urban neighbourhoods performed better, on average, but rates varied more across neighbourhoods compared with neighbourhoods in the central urban areas. U5M was negatively correlated with multiple indicators of improved living and socioeconomic conditions among peri-urban neighbourhoods. Among urban neighbourhoods, correlations with these factors were weaker or, in some cases, reversed, including with median household consumption and women's schooling.ConclusionReducing child mortality in high-burden urban neighbourhoods in GAMA, where a substantial portion of the urban population resides, should be prioritised as part of continued efforts to meet the Sustainable Development Goal national target of less than 25 deaths per 1000 live births.

Project description:ObjectiveAlthough the rate of stillbirth has decreased globally, it remains unacceptably high in developing countries. Today, only 10 countries share the burden of more than 65% of the global rate of stillbirth and these include Ethiopia. Ethiopia ranks seventh in terms of high rate of stillbirths. Exploring the spatial distribution of stillbirth is critical to developing successful interventions and monitoring public health programmes. However, there is no study on the spatial distribution and the associated factors of stillbirth in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the spatial distribution and the associated factors of stillbirth.MethodsSecondary data analysis was conducted based on the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. A total weighted sample of 11 375 women were included in the analysis. The Bernoulli model was fitted using SaTScan V.9.6 to identify hotspot areas and ArcGIS V.10.6 to explore the spatial distribution of stillbirth. For associated factors, a multilevel binary logistic regression model was fitted using STATA V.14 software. Variables with a p value of less than 0.2 were considered for the multivariable multilevel analysis. In the multivariable multilevel analysis, adjusted OR (AOR) with 95% CI was reported to reveal significantly associated factors of stillbirth.ResultsThe spatial analysis showed that stillbirth has significant spatial variation across the country. The SaTScan analysis identified significant primary clusters of stillbirth in the Northeast Somali region (log likelihood ratio (LLR)=13.4, p<0.001) and secondary clusters in the border area of Oromia and Amhara regions (LLR=8.8, p<0.05). In the multilevel analysis, rural residence (AOR=4.83, 95% CI 1.44 to 16.19), primary education (AOR=0.39, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.74), no antenatal care (ANC) visit (AOR=2.77, 95% CI 1.70 to 4.51), caesarean delivery (AOR=5.07, 95% CI 1.65 to 15.58), birth interval <24 months (AOR=1.95, 95% CI 1.20 to 3.10) and height <150 cm (AOR=2.73, 95% CI 1.45 to 4.97) were significantly associated with stillbirth.Conclusion and recommendationIn Ethiopia, stillbirth had significant spatial variations across the country. Residence, maternal stature, preceding birth interval, caesarean delivery, education and ANC visit were significantly associated with stillbirth. Therefore, public health interventions that enhance maternal healthcare service utilisation and maternal education in hotspot areas of stillbirth are crucial to reducing stillbirth in Ethiopia.

Dataset Information

Evidence of health inequity in child survival: spatial and Bayesian network analyses of stillbirth rates in 194 countries.

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Evidence of health inequity in child survival: spatial and Bayesian network analyses of stillbirth rates in 194 countries.

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