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Development and external validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for primary extremity soft tissue sarcoma survivors.

ABSTRACT: Background:Prognostic nomograms for patients with extremity soft tissue sarcoma (eSTS) typically predict survival or the occurrence of local recurrence or distant metastasis at time of surgery. Our aim was to develop and externally validate a dynamic prognostic nomogram for overall survival in eSTS survivors for use during follow-up. Methods:All primary eSTS patients operated with curative intent between 1994 and 2013 at three European and one Canadian sarcoma centers formed the development cohort. Patients with Fédération Française des Centres de Lutte Contre le Cancer (FNCLCC) grade II and grade III eSTS operated between 2000 and 2016 at seven other European reference centers formed the external validation cohort. We used a landmark analysis approach and a multivariable Cox model to create a dynamic nomogram; the prediction window was fixed at five years. A backward procedure based on the Akaike Information Criterion was adopted for variable selection. We tested the nomogram performance in terms of calibration and discrimination. Findings:The development and validation cohorts included 3740 and 893 patients, respectively. The variables selected applying the backward procedure were patient's age, tumor size and its interaction with landmark time, tumor FNCLCC grade and its interaction with landmark time, histology, and both local recurrence and distant metastasis (as first event) indicator variables. The nomogram showed good calibration and discrimination. Harrell C indexes at different landmark times were between 0.776 (0.761-0.790) and 0.845 (0.823-0.862) in the development series and between 0.675 (0.643-0.704) and 0.810 (0.775-0.844) in the validation series. Interpretation:A new dynamic nomogram is available to predict 5-year overall survival at different times during the first three years of follow-up in patients operated for primary eSTS. This nomogram allows physicians to update the individual survival prediction during follow-up on the basis of baseline variables, time elapsed from surgery and first-event history.

SUBMITTER: Callegaro D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6933187 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and external validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for primary extremity soft tissue sarcoma survivors.

Callegaro Dario D Miceli Rosalba R Bonvalot Sylvie S Ferguson Peter C PC Strauss Dirk C DC van Praag Veroniek V M VVM Levy Antonin A Griffin Anthony M AM Hayes Andrew J AJ Stacchiotti Silvia S Pèchoux Cecile Le CL Smith Myles J MJ Fiore Marco M Tos Angelo Paolo Dei APD Smith Henry G HG Catton Charles C Szkandera Joanna J Leithner Andreas A van de Sande Michiel A J MAJ Casali Paolo G PG Wunder Jay S JS Gronchi Alessandro A

EClinicalMedicine 20191122

<h4>Background</h4>Prognostic nomograms for patients with extremity soft tissue sarcoma (eSTS) typically predict survival or the occurrence of local recurrence or distant metastasis at time of surgery. Our aim was to develop and externally validate a dynamic prognostic nomogram for overall survival in eSTS survivors for use during follow-up.<h4>Methods</h4>All primary eSTS patients operated with curative intent between 1994 and 2013 at three European and one Canadian sarcoma centers formed the d ...[more]

PMID: 31891146

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Project description:PurposeRecent single institution, phase II evidence has demonstrated the feasibility and efficacy of ultra-hypofractionated, preoperative photon therapy in 5 fractions for the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma (STS). Our purpose was to evaluate the dosimetric benefits of modern scanning beam proton therapy compared with conventional photon radiation therapy (RT) for the neoadjuvant treatment of adult extremity STS.Materials and methodsExisting proton and photon plans for 11 adult patients with STS of the lower extremities previously treated preoperatively with neoadjuvant RT at our center were used to create proton therapy plans using Raystation Treatment Planning System v10.A. Volumes were delineated, and doses reported consistent with International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements reports 50, 62, and 78. Target volumes were optimized such that 100% clinical target volume (CTV) was covered by 99% of the prescription dose. The prescribed dose was 30 Gy for PT and RT delivered in 5 fractions. For proton therapy, doses are reported in GyRBE = 1.1 Gy. The constraints for adjacent organs at risk (OARs) within 1 cm of the CTV were the following: femur V30Gy ≤ 50%, joint V30Gy < 50%, femoral head V30Gy ≤ 5 cm3, strip V12 ≤ 10%, and skin V12 < 50%. Target coverage goals, OAR constraints, and integral dose were compared by Student t test with P < .05 significance.ResultsA minimum 99% CTV coverage was achieved for all plans. OAR dose constraints were achieved for all proton and photon plans; however, mean doses to the femur (10.7 ± 8.5 vs 16.1 ± 7.7 GyRBE), femoral head (2.0 ± 4.4 vs 3.6 ± 6.4 GyRBE), and proximal joint (1.8 ± 2.4 vs 3.5 ± 4.4 GyRBE) were all significantly lower with PT vs intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) (all P < .05). Integral dose was significantly reduced for proton vs photon plans. Conformity and heterogeneity indices were significantly better for proton therapy.ConclusionProton therapy maintained target coverage while significantly reducing integral and mean doses to the proximal organs at risk compared with RT. Further prospective investigation is warranted to validate these findings and potential benefit in the management of adult STS.

Project description:ImportanceImproved prognostic tools are needed for patients with locally recurrent extremity or truncal soft tissue sarcoma (STS).ObjectiveTo examine the association between average local recurrence (LR) growth rate and outcomes following resection of locally recurrent extremity or truncal STS.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used a prospectively maintained database from a single high-volume tertiary sarcoma referral center in the US to identify patients 16 years of age or older who underwent repeat resection of a locally recurrent extremity or truncal STS between July 1, 1982, and December 31, 2021. Patients with atypical lipomatous tumors, desmoid tumors, dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans, angiosarcomas, and prior or synchronous distant recurrence were excluded. Data were analyzed from November 1, 2022, to June 17, 2024.ExposureAverage LR growth rate, defined as the sum of recurrent tumor maximal diameters divided by the disease-free interval after index operation.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcomes were cumulative incidences of disease-specific death (DSD), with death from other causes as a competing risk, and second LR, with death from any cause as a competing risk.ResultsThe study cohort included 253 patients (median [IQR] age, 64 [51-73] years; 140 [55.3%] male). The 5-year cumulative incidence of DSD after repeat resection was 29%. Multivariable analysis indicated that LR growth rate (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12 [95% CI, 1.08-1.18]; P < .001), younger age (HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.97-0.99]; P = .002), R1 or R2 margins (HR, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.03-2.84]; P = .04), high LR grade (HR, 2.90 [95% CI, 1.17-7.20]; P = .02), and multifocality (HR, 2.92 [95% CI, 1.70-5.00]; P < .001) were independently associated with higher incidence of DSD. Using the minimum P value method, the optimal cutoff for growth rate was found to be 0.68 cm/mo. Patients with values above this cutoff had higher 5-year incidences of DSD following repeat resection (63% vs 19%; permutation test P < .001) and higher amputation rates (19% vs 7%; P = .008). Only R1 margins were independently associated with higher incidence of second LR (HR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.19-2.78]; P = .006).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study of patients undergoing resection of a locally recurrent extremity or truncal STS, LR growth rate was independently associated with DSD. These findings suggest that patients with growth rates higher than 0.68 cm/mo who undergo LR resection may have high disease-specific mortality and amputation rates and should be considered for perioperative systemic therapy.

Dataset Information

Development and external validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for primary extremity soft tissue sarcoma survivors.

Publications

Development and external validation of a dynamic prognostic nomogram for primary extremity soft tissue sarcoma survivors.

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