Dataset Information

Estimation of temporal covariances in pathogen dynamics using Bayesian multivariate autoregressive models.

ABSTRACT: It is well recognised that animal and plant pathogens form complex ecological communities of interacting organisms within their hosts, and there is growing interest in the health implications of such pathogen interactions. Although community ecology approaches have been used to identify pathogen interactions at the within-host scale, methodologies enabling robust identification of interactions from population-scale data such as that available from health authorities are lacking. To address this gap, we developed a statistical framework that jointly identifies interactions between multiple viruses from contemporaneous non-stationary infection time series. Our conceptual approach is derived from a Bayesian multivariate disease mapping framework. Importantly, our approach captures within- and between-year dependencies in infection risk while controlling for confounding factors such as seasonality, demographics and infection frequencies, allowing genuine pathogen interactions to be distinguished from simple correlations. We validated our framework using a broad range of synthetic data. We then applied it to diagnostic data available for five respiratory viruses co-circulating in a major urban population between 2005 and 2013: adenovirus, human coronavirus, human metapneumovirus, influenza B virus and respiratory syncytial virus. We found positive and negative covariances indicative of epidemiological interactions among specific virus pairs. This statistical framework enables a community ecology perspective to be applied to infectious disease epidemiology with important utility for public health planning and preparedness.

SUBMITTER: Mair C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6934324 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of temporal covariances in pathogen dynamics using Bayesian multivariate autoregressive models.

Mair Colette C Nickbakhsh Sema S Reeve Richard R McMenamin Jim J Reynolds Arlene A Gunson Rory N RN Murcia Pablo R PR Matthews Louise L

PLoS computational biology 20191213 12

It is well recognised that animal and plant pathogens form complex ecological communities of interacting organisms within their hosts, and there is growing interest in the health implications of such pathogen interactions. Although community ecology approaches have been used to identify pathogen interactions at the within-host scale, methodologies enabling robust identification of interactions from population-scale data such as that available from health authorities are lacking. To address this ...[more]

PMID: 31834896

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Project description:Fundamental to elucidating the functional organization of the brain is the assessment of causal interactions between different brain regions. Multivariate autoregressive (MVAR) modeling techniques applied to multisite electrophysiological recordings are a promising avenue for identifying such causal links. They estimate the degree to which past activity in one or more brain regions is predictive of another region's present activity, while simultaneously accounting for the mediating effects of other regions. Including as many mediating variables as possible in the model has the benefit of drastically reducing the odds of detecting spurious causal connectivity. However, effective bounds on the number of MVAR model coefficients that can be estimated reliably from limited data make exploiting the potential of MVAR models challenging for even modest numbers of recording sites. Here, we utilize well-established dimensionality-reduction techniques to fit MVAR models to human intracranial data from ∼100 - 200 recording sites spanning dozens of anatomically and functionally distinct cortical regions. First, we show that high-dimensional MVAR models can be successfully estimated from long segments of data and yield plausible connectivity profiles. Next, we use these models to generate synthetic data with known ground-truth connectivity to explore the utility of applying principal component analysis and group least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (gLASSO) to reduce the number of parameters (connections) during model fitting to shorter data segments. We show that gLASSO is highly effective for recovering ground-truth connectivity in the limited data regime, capturing important features of connectivity for high-dimensional models with as little as 10 seconds of data. The methods presented here have broad applicability to the analysis of high-dimensional time series data in neuroscience, facilitating the elucidation of the neural basis of sensation, cognition, and arousal.

Dataset Information

Estimation of temporal covariances in pathogen dynamics using Bayesian multivariate autoregressive models.

Publications

Estimation of temporal covariances in pathogen dynamics using Bayesian multivariate autoregressive models.

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