Dataset Information

Quantifying the spatial risk of Avian Influenza introduction into British poultry by wild birds.

ABSTRACT: The transmission of pathogens across the interface between wildlife and livestock presents a challenge to the development of effective surveillance and control measures. Wild birds, especially waterbirds such as the Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are considered to be the natural hosts of Avian Influenza (AI), and are presumed to pose one of the most likely vectors for incursion of AI into European poultry flocks. We have developed a generic quantitative risk map, derived from the classical epidemiological risk equation, to describe the relative, spatial risk of disease incursion into poultry flocks via wild birds. We then assessed the risk for AI incursion into British flocks. The risk map suggests that the majority of AI incursion risk is highly clustered within certain areas of Britain, including in the east, the south west and the coastal north-west of England. The clustering of high risk areas concentrates total risk in a relatively small land area; the top 33% of cells contribute over 80% of total incursion risk. This suggests that targeted risk-based sampling in a relatively small geographical area could be a much more effective and cost-efficient approach than representative sampling. The generic nature of the risk map method, allows rapid updating and application to other diseases transmissible between wild birds and poultry.

SUBMITTER: Hill A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6934731 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantifying the spatial risk of Avian Influenza introduction into British poultry by wild birds.

Hill Andrew A Gillings Simon S Berriman Alexander A Brouwer Adam A Breed Andrew C AC Snow Lucy L Ashton Adam A Byrne Charles C Irvine Richard M RM

Scientific reports 20191227 1

The transmission of pathogens across the interface between wildlife and livestock presents a challenge to the development of effective surveillance and control measures. Wild birds, especially waterbirds such as the Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are considered to be the natural hosts of Avian Influenza (AI), and are presumed to pose one of the most likely vectors for incursion of AI into European poultry flocks. We have developed a generic quantitative risk map, derived from the classical epi ...[more]

PMID: 31882592

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Project description:A large number of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds have been reported in Europe since 2005. Distinct spatial patterns in poultry and wild birds suggest that different environmental drivers and potentially different spread mechanisms are operating. However, previous studies found no difference between these two outbreak types when only the effect of physical environmental factors was analysed. The influence of physical and anthropogenic environmental variables and interactions between the two has only been investigated for wild bird outbreaks. We therefore tested the effect of these environmental factors on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry, and the potential spread mechanism, and discussed how these differ from those observed in wild birds. Logistic regression analyses were used to quantify the relationship between HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and environmental factors. Poultry outbreaks increased with an increasing human population density combined with close proximity to lakes or wetlands, increased temperatures and reduced precipitation during the cold season. A risk map was generated based on the identified key factors. In wild birds, outbreaks were strongly associated with an increased Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and lower elevation, though they were similarly affected by climatic conditions as poultry outbreaks. This is the first study that analyses the differences in environmental drivers and spread mechanisms between poultry and wild bird outbreaks. Outbreaks in poultry mostly occurred in areas where the location of farms or trade areas overlapped with habitats for wild birds, whereas outbreaks in wild birds were mainly found in areas where food and shelters are available. The different environmental drivers suggest that different spread mechanisms might be involved: HPAI H5N1 spread to poultry via both poultry and wild birds, whereas contact with wild birds alone seems to drive the outbreaks in wild birds.

Project description:Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5 viruses have pandemic potential, cause significant economic losses and are of veterinary and public health concerns. This study aimed to investigate the distribution and diversity of hemagglutinin (HA) subtypes of avian influenza virus (AIV) in poultry and wild birds in Bangladesh. We conducted an avian influenza sero-surveillance in wild and domestic birds in wetlands of Chattogram and Sylhet in the winter seasons 2012-2014. We tested serum samples using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (c-ELISA), and randomly selected positive serum samples (170 of 942) were tested using hemagglutination inhibition (HI) to detect antibodies against the 16 different HA sero-subtypes. All AIV sero-subtypes except H7, H11, H14 and H15 were identified in the present study, with H5 and H9 dominating over other subtypes, regardless of the bird species. The diversity of HA sero-subtypes within groups ranged from 3 (in household chickens) to 10 (in migratory birds). The prevalence of the H5 sero-subtype was 76.3% (29/38) in nomadic ducks, 71.4% (5/7) in household chicken, 66.7% (24/36) in resident wild birds, 65.9% (27/41) in migratory birds and 61.7% (29/47) in household ducks. Moreover, the H9 sero-subtype was common in migratory birds (56%; 23/41), followed by 38.3% (18/47) in household ducks, 36.8% (14/38) in nomadic ducks, 30.6% (11/66) in resident wild birds and 28.5% (2/7) in household chickens. H1, H4 and H6 sero-subtypes were the most common sero-subtypes (80%; 8/10, 70%; 7/10 and 70%; 7/10, respectively) in migratory birds in 2012, H9 in resident wild birds (83.3%; 5/6) and H2 in nomadic ducks (73.9%; 17/23) in 2013, and the H5 sero-subtype in all types of birds (50% to 100%) in 2014. The present study demonstrates that a high diversity of HA subtypes circulated in diverse bird species in Bangladesh, and this broad range of AIV hosts may increase the probability of AIVs' reassortment and may enhance the emergence of novel AIV strains. A continued surveillance for AIV at targeted domestic-wild bird interfaces is recommended to understand the ecology and evolution of AIVs.

Dataset Information

Quantifying the spatial risk of Avian Influenza introduction into British poultry by wild birds.

Publications

Quantifying the spatial risk of Avian Influenza introduction into British poultry by wild birds.

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