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A Potential Outcomes Calculus for Identifying Conditional Path-Specific Effects.


ABSTRACT: The do-calculus is a well-known deductive system for deriving connections between interventional and observed distributions, and has been proven complete for a number of important identifiability problems in causal inference [1, 8, 18]. Nevertheless, as it is currently defined, the do-calculus is inapplicable to causal problems that involve complex nested counterfactuals which cannot be expressed in terms of the "do" operator. Such problems include analyses of path-specific effects and dynamic treatment regimes. In this paper we present the potential outcome calculus (po-calculus), a natural generalization of do-calculus for arbitrary potential outcomes. We thereby provide a bridge between identification approaches which have their origins in artificial intelligence and statistics, respectively. We use po-calculus to give a complete identification algorithm for conditional path-specific effects with applications to problems in mediation analysis and algorithmic fairness.

SUBMITTER: Malinsky D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6935349 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Potential Outcomes Calculus for Identifying Conditional Path-Specific Effects.

Malinsky Daniel D   Shpitser Ilya I   Richardson Thomas T  

Proceedings of machine learning research 20190401


The do-calculus is a well-known deductive system for deriving connections between interventional and observed distributions, and has been proven complete for a number of important identifiability problems in causal inference [1, 8, 18]. Nevertheless, as it is currently defined, the do-calculus is inapplicable to causal problems that involve complex nested counterfactuals which cannot be expressed in terms of the "do" operator. Such problems include analyses of path-specific effects and dynamic t  ...[more]

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