Dataset Information

Stagnating National Declines in Stroke Mortality Mask Widespread County-Level Increases, 2010-2016.

ABSTRACT: Background and Purpose- Recent national and state-level trends show a stalling or reversal of previously declining stroke death rates. These national trends may mask local geographic variation and changes in stroke mortality. We assessed county-level trends in stroke mortality among adults aged 35 to 64 and ?65 years. Methods- We used data from National Vital Statistics Systems and a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized annual stroke death rates for 2010 through 2016 among middle-aged adults (35-64 years) and older adults (?65 years) in US counties. We used log-linear regression models to estimate average annual and total percent change in stroke mortality during the period. Results- Nationally, the annual percent change in stroke mortality from 2010 to 2016 was -0.7% (95% CI, -4.2% to 3.0%) among middle-aged adults and -3.5% (95% CI, -10.7% to 4.3%) among older adults, resulting in 2016 rates of 15.0 per 100?000 and 259.8 per 100?000, respectively. Increasing county-level stroke mortality was more prevalent among middle-aged adults (56.6% of counties) compared with among older adults (26.1% of counties). About half (48.3%) of middle-aged adults, representing 60.2 million individuals, lived in counties in which stroke mortality increased. Conclusions- County-level increases in stroke mortality clarify previously reported national and state-level trends, particularly among middle-aged adults. Roughly 3×as many counties experienced increases in stroke death rates for middle-aged adults compared with older adults. This highlights a need to address stroke prevention and treatment for middle-aged adults while continuing efforts to reduce stroke mortality among the more highly burdened older adults. Efforts to reverse these troubling local trends will likely require joint public health and clinical efforts to develop innovative and integrated approaches for stroke prevention and care, with a focus on community-level characteristics that support stroke-free living for all.

SUBMITTER: Hall EW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6935863 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stagnating National Declines in Stroke Mortality Mask Widespread County-Level Increases, 2010-2016.

Hall Eric W EW Vaughan Adam S AS Ritchey Matthew D MD Schieb Linda L Casper Michele M

Stroke 20191107 12

Background and Purpose- Recent national and state-level trends show a stalling or reversal of previously declining stroke death rates. These national trends may mask local geographic variation and changes in stroke mortality. We assessed county-level trends in stroke mortality among adults aged 35 to 64 and ≥65 years. Methods- We used data from National Vital Statistics Systems and a Bayesian multivariate space-time conditional autoregressive model to estimate age-standardized annual stroke deat ...[more]

PMID: 31694505

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Project description:ImportanceSuicide is the second leading cause of death among youths aged 10 to 19 years in the United States, with rates nearly doubling during the past decade. Youths in impoverished communities are at increased risk for negative health outcomes; however, the association between pediatric suicide and poverty is not well understood.ObjectiveTo assess the association between pediatric suicide rates and county-level poverty concentration.Design, setting, and participantsThis retrospective, cross-sectional study examined suicides among US youths aged 5 to 19 years from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2016. Suicides were identified using International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification codes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Compressed Mortality File. Data analysis was performed from February 1, 2019, to September 10, 2019.ExposuresCounty poverty concentration and the percentage of the population living below the federal poverty level. Counties were divided into 5 poverty concentration categories: 0% to 4.9%, 5.0% to 9.9%, 10.0% to 14.9%, 15.0% to 19.9%, and 20.0% or more of the population living below the federal poverty level.Main outcomes and measuresThe study used a multivariable negative binomial regression model to analyze the association between pediatric suicide rates and county poverty concentration, reporting adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) with 95% CIs. The study controlled for year, demographic characteristics of the children who died (age, sex, and race/ethnicity), county urbanicity, and county demographic features (age, sex, and racial composition). Subgroup analyses were stratified by method.ResultsFrom 2007 to 2016, a total of 20 982 youths aged 5 to 19 years died by suicide (17 760 [84.6%] were aged 15-19 years, 15 982 [76.2%] male, and 14 387 [68.6%] white non-Hispanic). The annual suicide rate was 3.35 per 100 000 youths aged 5 to 19 years. In the multivariable model, compared with counties with the lowest poverty concentration (0%-4.9%), counties with poverty concentrations of 10% or greater had higher suicide rates in a stepwise manner (10.0%-14.9%: aIRR, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.06-1.47]; 15.0%-19.9%: aIRR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.10-1.54]; and 20.0% or more: aIRR, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.15-1.64]). When stratified by method, firearm suicides had the strongest association with county poverty concentration (aIRR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.41-2.49) in counties with 20% or higher poverty concentration compared with counties with 0% to 4.9% poverty concentration.Conclusions and relevanceThe findings suggest that higher county-level poverty concentration is associated with increased suicide rates among youths aged 5 to 19 years. These findings may guide research into upstream risk factors associated with pediatric suicide to inform suicide prevention efforts.

Project description:ImportanceUnderstanding geographic and community-level factors associated with suicide can inform targeted suicide prevention efforts.ObjectivesTo estimate suicide rates and trajectories, assess associated county-level contextual factors, and explore variation across the rural-urban continuum.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study included all individuals aged 25 to 64 years who died by suicide from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2016, in the United States. Spatial analysis was used to map excess risk of suicide, and longitudinal random-effects models using negative binomial regression tested associations of contextual variables with suicide rates as well as interactions among county-level contextual variables. Data analyses were conducted between January 2019 and July 2019.ExposureCounty of residence.Main outcomes and measuresThree-year county suicide rates during an 18-year period stratified by rural-urban location.ResultsBetween 1999 and 2016, 453 577 individuals aged 25 to 64 years died by suicide in the United States. Decedents were primarily male (349 082 [77.0%]) with 101 312 (22.3%) aged 25 to 34 years, 120 157 (26.5%) aged 35 to 44 years, 136 377 (30.1%) aged 45 to 54 years, and 95 771 (21.1%) aged 55 to 64 years. Suicide rates were higher and increased more rapidly in rural than in large metropolitan counties. The highest deprivation quartile was associated with higher suicide rates compared with the lowest deprivation quartile, especially in rural areas, although this association declined during the period studied (rural, 1999-2001: incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.438; 95% CI, 1.319-1.568; P < .001; large metropolitan, 1999-2001: 1.208; 95% CI, 1.149-1.270; P < .001; rural, 2014-2016: IRR, 1.121; 95% CI, 1.032-1.219; P = .01; large metropolitan, 2014-2016: IRR, 0.942; 95% CI, 0.887-1.001; P = .06). The presence of more gun shops was associated with an increase in county-level suicide rates in all county types except the most rural (rural: IRR, 1.001; 95% CI, 0.999-1.004; P = .40; micropolitan: IRR, 1.005; 95% CI, 1.002-1.007; P < .001; small metropolitan: IRR, 1.010; 95% CI, 1.006-1.014; P < .001; large metropolitan: IRR, 1.012; 95% CI, 1.006-1.018; P < .001). High social capital was associated with lower suicide rates than low social capital (IRR, 0.917; 95% CI, 0.891-0.943; P < .001). High social fragmentation, an increasing percentage of the population without health insurance, and an increasing percentage of veterans in a county were associated with higher suicide rates (high social fragmentation: IRR, 1.077; 95% CI, 1.050-1.103; P < .001; percentage of population without health insurance: IRR, 1.005; 95% CI, 1.004-1.006; P < .001; percentage of veterans: IRR, 1.025; 95% CI, 1.021-1.028; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that suicide rates have increased across the nation and most rapidly in rural counties, which may be more sensitive to the impact of social deprivation than more metropolitan counties. Improving social connectedness, civic opportunities, and health insurance coverage as well as limiting access to lethal means have the potential to reduce suicide rates across the rural-urban continuum.

Project description:ObjectivesWe aimed to examine the associations of both individual-level and county-level social capital with individual health in China during a period of rapid economic growth.Design and settingA serial cross-sectional study in China.Participants and methodsThe participants were 42 829 Chinese adults (aged ≥18 years) from the 2010, 2012, 2013 and 2015 Chinese General Social Survey. The outcomes were self-rated physical and mental health in all time points. We assessed social capital by the individual-level and county-level indicators, including frequency of socialising, civic participation and trust. We conducted multilevel binary logistic regression models to examine the associations of individual-level and county-level social capital with self-rated physical and mental health.ResultsAt the individual level, high frequency of socialising (2010-OR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.33 to 1.66; 2012-OR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.26 to 1.54; 2013-OR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.15 to 1.42; 2015-OR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.23 to 1.50) and high trust (2010-OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.47; 2012-OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.18 to 1.42; 2013-OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.10 to 1.33; 2015-OR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.28 to 1.55) was significantly associated with good physical health in all years. At the individual level, high frequency of socialising (2010-OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.14 to 1.42; 2012-OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.34; 2013-OR: 1.30, 95% CI: 1.17 to 1.45; 2015-OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.50) and high trust (2010-OR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.34 to 1.61; 2012-OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.30 to 1.56; 2013-OR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.24 to 1.49; 2015-OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.30 to 1.57) was also significantly associated with good mental health in all years. No evidence showed that the associations of individual-level frequency of socialising and trust with physical and mental health changed over time. There were no consistent associations of individual-level civic participation or any county-level social capital indicators with physical or mental health.ConclusionThe positive associations of individual-level social capital in terms of socialising and trust with physical and mental health were robust during a period of rapid economic growth. Improving individual-level socialising and trust for health promotion could be a long-term strategy even within a rapidly developing society.

Dataset Information

Stagnating National Declines in Stroke Mortality Mask Widespread County-Level Increases, 2010-2016.

Publications

Stagnating National Declines in Stroke Mortality Mask Widespread County-Level Increases, 2010-2016.

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