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A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom.

ABSTRACT: Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socioeconomic impacts of space weather, despite a growing gray literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigor. In this analysis, we therefore provide a general framework for assessing the potential socioeconomic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from geomagnetic disturbances, applying it to the British high-voltage electricity transmission network. Socioeconomic analysis of this threat has hitherto failed to address the general geophysical risk, asset vulnerability, and the network structure of critical infrastructure systems. We overcome this by using a three-part method that includes (i) estimating the probability of intense magnetospheric substorms, (ii) exploring the vulnerability of electricity transmission assets to geomagnetically induced currents, and (iii) testing the socioeconomic impacts under different levels of space weather forecasting. This has required a multidisciplinary approach, providing a step toward the standardization of space weather risk assessment. We find that for a Carrington-sized 1-in-100-year event with no space weather forecasting capability, the gross domestic product loss to the United Kingdom could be as high as £15.9 billion, with this figure dropping to £2.9 billion based on current forecasting capability. However, with existing satellites nearing the end of their life, current forecasting capability will decrease in coming years. Therefore, if no further investment takes place, critical infrastructure will become more vulnerable to space weather. Additional investment could provide enhanced forecasting, reducing the economic loss for a Carrington-sized 1-in-100-year event to £0.9 billion.

SUBMITTER: Oughton EJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6936226 | biostudies-literature | 2019 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom.

Oughton Edward J EJ Hapgood Mike M Richardson Gemma S GS Beggan Ciarán D CD Thomson Alan W P AWP Gibbs Mark M Burnett Catherine C Gaunt C Trevor CT Trichas Markos M Dada Rabia R Horne Richard B RB

Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 20181108 5

Space weather phenomena have been studied in detail in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. However, there has arguably been scant analysis of the potential socioeconomic impacts of space weather, despite a growing gray literature from different national studies, of varying degrees of methodological rigor. In this analysis, we therefore provide a general framework for assessing the potential socioeconomic impacts of critical infrastructure failure resulting from geomagnetic disturbances, app ...[more]

PMID: 30408211

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Project description:Investments to promote public transport utilisation are being championed to achieve sustainable development, but the potential co-benefits for mental health are comparatively under-researched. We hypothesised that frequent users of public transport would be more likely to have better mental health (possibly due to increased levels of physical activity), but among the more frequent users, less favourable perceptions of public transport infrastructure (PPTI) could have a negative influence on mental health.Multilevel linear and logistic regressions were fitted on 30,214 participants in the UK Household Longitudinal Study with lagged PPTI and confounder measures at baseline and indicators of active travel and mental health (General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), SF-12 Mental Component Scale (MCS) and the Warwick Edinburgh Mental Well Being Scale (WEMWBS)) at follow-up.Compared to participants expressing poor PPTI, those who felt it was excellent were 1.29 (95%CI 1.15, 1.45) times more likely to be frequent users of public transport and 1.53 (95%CI 1.33, 1.76) times more likely to choose to walk or cycle journeys of less than two to three miles. Frequent use of public transport was found to be consistently associated with better mental health for GHQ caseness (OR 0.85, 95%CI 0.79, 0.91), GHQ score (coefficient -0.28, 95%CI -0.41, -0.16), MCS (coefficient 0.45, 95%CI 0.23, 0.66), and WEMWBS (coefficient 0.30, 95%CI 0.19, 0.40). Among frequent users of public transport, participants expressing poor PPTI were 1.46 (95%CI 1.11, 1.93) times more likely to report poorer mental health according to the GHQ caseness indicator, compared to frequent users that regarded PPTI as excellent. Similar results were observed for the other indicators of mental health.These findings indicate that while the provision of public transport infrastructure is a necessary pre-condition for stimulating population increases in physical activity, PPTI improvements needs to be prioritised to leverage the full mental health-related co-benefits of active travel.

Dataset Information

A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom.

Publications

A Risk Assessment Framework for the Socioeconomic Impacts of Electricity Transmission Infrastructure Failure Due to Space Weather: An Application to the United Kingdom.

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