Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Castellana D
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6937345 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Castellana Daniele D Baars Sven S Wubs Fred W FW Dijkstra Henk A HA
Scientific reports 20191230 1
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is considered to be a tipping element of the climate system. As it cannot be excluded that the AMOC is in a multiple regime, transitions can occur due to atmospheric noise between the present-day state and a weaker AMOC state. For the first time, we here determine estimates of the transition probability of noise-induced transitions of the AMOC, within a certain time period, using a methodology from large deviation theory. We find that there ...[more]