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Sub-national levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning in Nigeria with survey uncertainty.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Ambitious global goals have been established to provide universal access to affordable modern contraceptive methods. To measure progress toward such goals in populous countries like Nigeria, it's essential to characterize the current levels and trends of family planning (FP) indicators such as unmet need and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Moreover, the substantial heterogeneity across Nigeria and scale of programmatic implementation requires a sub-national resolution of these FP indicators. The aim of this study is to estimate the levels and trends of FP indicators at a subnational scale in Nigeria utilizing all available data and accounting for survey design and uncertainty. METHODS:We utilized all available cross-sectional survey data from Nigeria including the Demographic and Health Surveys, Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, National Nutrition and Health Surveys, and Performance, Monitoring, and Accountability 2020. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporates all of the individual level data from each survey instrument, accounts for survey uncertainty, leverages spatio-temporal smoothing, and produces probabilistic estimates with uncertainty intervals. RESULTS:We estimate that overall rates and trends of mCPR and unmet need have remained low in Nigeria: the average annual rate of change for mCPR by state is 0.5% (0.4%,0.6%) from 2012-2017. Unmet need by age-parity demographic groups varied significantly across Nigeria; parous women express much higher rates of unmet need than nulliparous women. CONCLUSIONS:Understanding the estimates and trends of FP indicators at a subnational resolution in Nigeria is integral to inform programmatic decision-making. We identify age-parity-state subgroups with large rates of unmet need. We also find conflicting trends by survey instrument across a number of states. Our model-based estimates highlight these inconsistencies, attempt to reconcile the direct survey estimates, and provide uncertainty intervals to enable interpretation of model and survey estimates for decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Mercer LD

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6937659 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Sub-national levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning in Nigeria with survey uncertainty.

Mercer Laina D LD Lu Fred F Proctor Joshua L JL

BMC public health 20191230 1

<h4>Background</h4>Ambitious global goals have been established to provide universal access to affordable modern contraceptive methods. To measure progress toward such goals in populous countries like Nigeria, it's essential to characterize the current levels and trends of family planning (FP) indicators such as unmet need and modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR). Moreover, the substantial heterogeneity across Nigeria and scale of programmatic implementation requires a sub-national resol ...[more]

PMID: 31888577

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Project description:BackgroundEliminating unmet need for family planning by 2030 is a global priority for ensuring healthy lives and promoting well-being for all at all ages. We estimate the sub-national trends in prevalence of unmet need for family planning over 30 years in India and study differences based on socio-economic and demographic factors.MethodsWe used data from five National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) conducted between 1993 to 2021 for the 36 states/Union Territories (UTs) of India. The study population included women of ages 15-49 years who were married or in a union at the time of the survey. The outcome was unmet need for family planning which captures the prevalence of fecund and sexually active women not using contraception, who want to delay or limit childbearing. We calculated the standardized absolute change to estimate the change in prevalence on an annual basis across all states/UTs. We examined the patterning of prevalence of across demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and estimated the headcount of women with unmet need in 2021.ResultsThe prevalence of unmet need in India decreased from 20·6% (95% CI: 20·1- 21·2%) in 1993, to 9·4% (95% CI: 9·3-9·6%) in 2021. Median unmet need prevalence across states/UTs decreased from 17·80% in 1993 to 8·95% in 2021. The north-eastern states of Meghalaya (26·9%, 95% CI: 25·3-28·6%) and Mizoram (18·9%, 95% CI: 17·2-20·6%), followed by the northern states of Bihar (13·6%, 95% CI: 13·1-14·1%) and Uttar Pradesh (12·9%, 95% CI: 12·5-13·2%), had the highest unmet need prevalence in 2021. As of 2021, the estimated number of women with an unmet need for family planning was 24,194,428. Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, and West Bengal accounted for half of this headcount. Women of ages 15-19 and those belonging the poorest wealth quintile had a relatively high prevalence of unmet need in 2021.ConclusionsThe existing initiatives under the National Family Planning Programme should be strengthened, and new policies should be developed with a focus on states/UTs with high prevalence, to ensure unmet need for family planning is eliminated by 2030.

Project description:BackgroundReducing unmet need for family planning by increasing the rate of modern contraceptive use is indispensable if Cameroon must meet maternal mortality targets of the Sustainable Development Goals. The objective of this survey was to estimate the rate of contraceptive use and identify factors associated with unmet need for family planning in rural Cameroon.MethodsIt was conducted a community-based cross sectional survey from February to March 2016 targeting women in a union of the Wum Health District. Participants were included by cluster multistep sampling and data collected by trained surveyors using a pretested questionnaire. Data were analysed using Epi-Info version 3.5.4. The odds ratio was used as a measure of association between unmet need for family planning and selected covariates with the statistical significant threshold set at p ≤ 0.05.ResultsAmong the 466 women included in the survey, 78.5% were legally married. The mean age of the participants was 28.7 ± 7.2 years with a mean number of years of cohabitation of 9.1 ± 7.4 years. A total of 438 women from the sample were evaluated for contraceptive use and unmet need for family planning. The rate of modern contraceptive use at the time of the survey was 13[10.1-16.6]% and about 5 in every 10 women had an unmet need for family planning (46.6[41.8-51.4]%) with 31.1% having an unmet need for spacing and 15.5% an unmet need for limiting births. The potential demand for contraception was estimated at 45.9% with only 39.8% of this demand met. When controlled for age, monthly revenue, occupation and partner's level of education, discussion of family planning within the couple (OR = 0.66[0.44-0.97], p-value = 0.032), and partner's approval of contraception (OR = 0.66[0.45-0.97], p-value = 0.035), were found to be significantly associated with decreasing unmet need for family planning.ConclusionWith the very low rates of modern contraceptive use and potential demand for contraception in the Wum Health District, the rate of unmet need for family planning is still very high. Non discussion of family planning within the couple, and disapproval of contraception by the partner are significantly associated with high unmet need for family planning. More of couple-based family planning interventions should be encouraged.

Project description:BackgroundThe London Summit on Family Planning in 2012 inspired the Family Planning 2020 (FP2020) initiative and the 120×20 goal of having an additional 120 million women and adolescent girls become users of modern contraceptives in 69 of the world's poorest countries by the year 2020. Working towards achieving 120?×?20 is crucial for ultimately achieving the Sustainable Development Goals of universal access and satisfying demand for reproductive health. Thus, a performance assessment is required to determine countries' progress.MethodsAn updated version of the Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) was used to construct estimates and projections of the modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR), unmet need for, and demand satisfied with modern methods of contraception among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the focus countries of the FP2020 initiative. We assessed current levels of family planning indicators and changes between 2012 and 2017. A counterfactual analysis was used to assess if recent levels of mCPR exceeded pre-FP2020 expectations.FindingsIn 2017, the mCPR among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union in the FP2020 focus countries was 45·7% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 42·4-49·1), unmet need for modern methods was 21·6% (19·7-23·9), and the demand satisfied with modern methods was 67·9% (64·4-71·1). Between 2012 and 2017 the number of women of reproductive age who are married or in a union who use modern methods increased by 28·8 million (95% UI 5·8-52·5). At the regional level, Asia has seen the mCPR among women of reproductive age who are married or in a union grow from 51·0% (95% UI 48·5-53·4) to 51·8% (47·3-56·5) between 2012 and 2017, which is slow growth, particularly when compared with a change from 23·9% (22·9-25·0) to 28·5% (26·8-30·2) across Africa. At the country level, based on a counterfactual analysis, we found that 61% of the countries that have made a commitment to FP2020 exceeded pre-FP2020 expectations for modern contraceptive use. Country success stories include rapid increases in Kenya, Mozambique, Malawi, Lesotho, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Chad relative to what was expected in 2012.InterpretationWhereas the estimate of additional users up to 2017 for women of reproductive age who are married or in a union would suggest that the 120?×?20 goal for all women is overly ambitious, the aggregate outcomes mask the diversity in progress at the country level. We identified countries with accelerated progress, that provide inspiration and guidance on how to increase the use of family planning and inform future efforts, especially in countries where progress has been poor.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, through grant support to the University of Massachusetts Amherst and Avenir Health.

Project description:BackgroundStunting is determined by using the World Health Organization (WHO) child growth standard which was developed using precise measurements. However, it is unlikely that large scale surveys maintain the same level of rigour and precision when measuring the height of children. The population measure of stunting in children is sensitive to over-dispersion, and the high prevalence of stunting observed in surveys in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) could partly be due to lower measurement precison.ObjectivesTo quantify the incongruence in the dispersion of height-for-age in national surveys of <?5 y children, in relation to the standard WHO Multicenter Growth Reference Study (MGRS), and propose a measure of uncertainty in population measures of stunting.MethodsAn uncertainty factor was proposed and measured from the observed incongruence in dispersion of the height-for-age of <?5 y children in the MGRS against carefully matched populations from the Demographic Health Survey of 17 countries ('test datasets', based on the availability of data). This also allowed for the determination of uncertainty-corrected prevalence of stunting (height-for-age Z score?<?-?2) in <?5 y children.ResultsThe uncertainty factor was estimated for 17 LMICs. This ranged from 0.9 to 2.1 for Peru and Egypt respectively (reference value 1). As an explicit country example, the dispersion of height-for-age in the Indian National Family Health Survey-4 test dataset was 39% higher than the MGRS study, with an uncertainty factor of 1.39. From this, the uncertainty-adjusted Indian national stunting prevalence estimate reduced to 18.7% from the unadjusted estimate of 36.2%.ConclusionsThis study proposes a robust statistical method to estimate uncertainty in stunting prevalence estimates due to incongruent dispersions of height measured in national surveys for children <?5?years in relation to the WHO height-for-age standard. The uncertainty is partly due to population heterogeneity, but also due to measurement precision, and calls for better quality in these measurements.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Malawi has a high fertility rate which is also characterized by a relatively high prevalence of unmet need for contraception. However, little is known about the influence of individual- and community- level characteristics on unmet need in Malawi. This study examined the individual- and community- level factors associated with unmet need for family planning (FP) among Malawian women. METHODS:Data from the 2015-16 Malawi demographic and health survey were used to analyze 15, 931 women. The association between individual- and community- level factors and unmet need was assessed using multilevel binary logistic regression models. RESULTS:The prevalence of total unmet need was 21.0%. Women aged ?35?years were more likely to have total unmet need [adjusted odds ratio (aOR)?=?1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI)?=?1.04-1.35] compared with those aged 15-24?years. Women who were married [aOR?=?0.41, 95% CI?=?0.35-0.48], and those employed [aOR?=?0.78, 95% CI?=?0.71-0.85] were associated with less likelihood of having total unmet need compared with unmarried, and unemployed women, respectively. At community-level, women from communities with a high percentage of women from rich households [aOR?=?0.81, 95% CI?=?0.67-0.96], and those from communities with a middle and high percentage of educated women [aOR?=?0.86, 95% CI?=?0.76-0.96 and aOR?=?0.81, 95% CI?=?0.70-0.93, respectively] were less likely to have total unmet need for FP compared with those from communities with low percentages of rich and educated women, respectively. The proportional change in variance showed that about 36.0% of total variations in the odds of unmet need across the communities were explained by both individual- and community-level factors. Moreover, the intraclass correlation showed that about 3.0% of the total variation remained unexplained even after controlling for both individual- and community-level factors. CONCLUSION:Both individual- and community- level factors influenced unmet need for FP in Malawi. Public health practitioners should conduct community profiling and consider individual and community factors when designing FP programs.

Project description:Introduction: To evaluate unmet clinical need in unselected hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients to determine the risk of a wide range of subsequent cardiovascular disease endpoints and safety endpoints relevant for trial design.Methods: Population based cohort (CALIBER, linked primary care, hospital and mortality records in England, period 1997-2010), all people diagnosed with HCM were identified and matched by age, sex and general practice with ten randomly selected people without HCM. Random-effects Poisson models were used to assess the associations between HCM and cardiovascular diseases and bleeding.Results: Among 3,290,455 eligible people a diagnosis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was found in 4 per 10,000. Forty-one percent of the 1,160 individuals with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy were women and the median age was 57 years. The median follow-up was 4.0 years. Compared to general population controls, people with HCM had higher risk of ventricular arrhythmia (incidence rate ratio = 23.53, [95% confidence interval 12.67-43.72]), cardiac arrest or sudden cardiac death (6.33 [3.69-10.85]), heart failure (4.31, [3.30-5.62]), and atrial fibrillation (3.80 [3.04-4.75]). HCM was also associated with a higher incidence of myocardial infarction ([MI] 1.90 [1.27-2.84]) and coronary revascularisation (2.32 [1.46-3.69]).The absolute Kaplan-Meier risks at 3 years were 8.8% for the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or heart failure, 8.4% for the composite of cardiovascular death, stroke or myocardial infarction, and 1.5% for major bleeding.Conclusions: Our study identified major unmet need in HCM and highlighted the importance of implementing improved cardiovascular prevention strategies to increase life-expectancy of the contemporary HCM population. They also show that national electronic health records provide an effective method for identifying outcomes and clinically relevant estimates of composite efficacy and safety endpoints essential for trial design in rare diseases.

Dataset Information

Sub-national levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning in Nigeria with survey uncertainty.

Publications

Sub-national levels and trends in contraceptive prevalence, unmet need, and demand for family planning in Nigeria with survey uncertainty.

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