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Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS:A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS:T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS:Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.

SUBMITTER: Awad SF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6937668 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

Awad Susanne F SF O'Flaherty Martin M El-Nahas Katie G KG Al-Hamaq Abdulla O AO Critchley Julia A JA Abu-Raddad Laith J LJ

Population health metrics 20191230 1

<h4>Background</h4>The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example.<h4>Methods</h4>A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally repres ...[more]

PMID: 31888689

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Project description:Physical inactivity has emerged as an important and risk factor for cardiovascular and metabolic diseases, independent of levels of exercise engagement. Moreover, inactivity is associated with poor brain functioning. However, little data on the effects of physical inactivity on the brain is available and few methods are suitable to investigate this matter. We tested whether preventing lid climbing and reducing cage size could be used to model physical inactivity in mice. Sixty young adult C57Bl6 mice (10 weeks old) were divided over six groups with different housing conditions: in cages of three different sizes with lids that either allowed or prevented lid climbing. Housing under these conditions was maintained for a period of 19 weeks before the mice were killed for body composition analysis. Physical fitness tests performed around 5 and 10 weeks into the intervention revealed that motor coordination in the balance beam test was reduced by 30.65%, grip strength by 8.91% and muscle stamina in the inverted screen test by 70.37% in non-climbing mice as compared to climbing controls. Preventing climbing increased visceral fat mass by 17.31%, but did not reduce muscle mass. Neither preventing climbing nor reducing cage size affected anxiety assessed in the Open Field test and the Elevated Plus Maze. We did not find any negative effect of inactivity on spatial learning and memory in the novel object location test or working memory measured with the Y-maze Alternation test. The reduced physical fitness and increase in visceral fat mass show that our inactivity method models most effects of physical inactivity that are observed in experimental and observational studies in humans. Whereas established methods such as hindlimb unloading mimic many of the effects of bed rest, our novel method can be applied to study the effects of less extreme forms of physical inactivity (i.e., sedentary behavior) in various disease models including rodent models for brain diseases (i.e., stroke, Alzheimer's disease).

Dataset Information

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

Publications

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

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