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Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Climate change is increasing the number and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Precipitation extremes have been linked to both outbreaks and sporadic cases of waterborne illness. We have previously shown a link between heavy rain and turbidity to population-level risk of sporadic cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in a major Canadian urban population. The risk increased with 30 or more dry days in the 60 days preceding the week of extreme rain. The goal of this study was to investigate the change in cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis risk due to climate change, primarily change in extreme precipitation. METHODS:Cases of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were extracted from a reportable disease system (1997-2009). We used distributed lag non-linear Poisson regression models and projections of the exposure-outcome relationship to estimate future illness (2020-2099). The climate projections are derived from twelve statistically downscaled regional climate models. Relative Concentration Pathway 8.5 was used to project precipitation derived from daily gridded weather observation data (~ 6 × 10 km resolution) covering the central of three adjacent watersheds serving metropolitan Vancouver for the 2020s, 2040s, 2060s and 2080s. RESULTS:Precipitation is predicted to steadily increase in these watersheds during the wet season (Oct. -Mar.) and decrease in other parts of the year up through the 2080s. More weeks with extreme rain (>90th percentile) are expected. These weeks are predicted to increase the annual rates of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis by approximately 16% by the 2080s corresponding to an increase of 55-136 additional cases per year depending upon the climate model used. The predicted increase in the number of waterborne illness cases are during the wet months. The range in future projections compared to historical monthly case counts typically differed by 10-20% across climate models but the direction of change was consistent for all models. DISCUSSION:If new water filtration measures had not been implemented in our study area in 2010-2015, the risk of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis would have been expected to increase with climate change, particularly precipitation changes. In addition to the predicted increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the frequency and length of wet and dry spells could also affect the risk of waterborne diseases as we observed in the historical period. These findings add to the growing evidence regarding the need to prepare water systems to manage and become resilient to climate change-related health risks.

SUBMITTER: Chhetri BK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6937929 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Traditional food systems are under pressure from various stressors, including climate change which is projected to negatively alter the abundance of marine species harvested by coastal First Nations (FNs) in British Columbia (BC). OBJECTIVE:To model the potential impacts of the climate-related declines in seafood production on the nutritional status of coastal BC FNs. In addition, we projected potential changes in nutrient intakes, under different scenarios of substitution where traditional seafood is replaced with alternative non-traditional foods. METHODS:The study design is a mixed-method approach that combines two datasets: projected scenarios of climate-related change on seafood catch potential for coastal BC FNs and data derived from the cross-sectional First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study. The consumption of seafood was estimated using a food frequency questionnaire among 356 FNs. The contribution of seafood consumption to protein, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), vitamins (A, B12, D, niacin), and minerals (zinc, selenium and iron) requirements was assessed using Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs). RESULTS:Traditional seafood consumption provided daily recommendations of EPA+DHA (74-184%) and vitamin B12 (84-152%) and substantial levels of niacin (28-55%), selenium (29-55%), vitamin D (15-30%) and protein (14-30%). Projected climate change was estimated to reduce the intakes of essential nutrients by 21% and 31% under 'strong mitigation' (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP2.6) and 'business-as-usual' (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios, respectively, by the year 2050 relative to 2000. The hypothetical substitution of seafood with selected alternative non-traditional foods does not provide adequate amounts of nutrients. CONCLUSION:Traditionally-harvested seafood remains fundamental to the contemporary diet and health of coastal BC FNs. Potential dietary shifts aggravated by climate-related declines in seafood consumption may have significant nutritional and health implications for BC FN. Strategies to improve access to seafood harvest potential in coastal communities are needed to ensure nutritional health and overall well-being and to promote food security and food sovereignty in coastal FNs.

Project description:BackgroundOnly one species of large carpenter bee, Xylocopa virginica (Linnaeus, 1771), has been recorded from Canada, albeit restricted to southern Ontario and Quebec. However, a single female specimen identified by Hurd in 1954 as X. varipuncta Patton, 1879 from British Columbia is in the C.A. Triplehorn Insect Collection at The Ohio State University (OSUC), suggesting that this species was accidentally introduced into coastal western Canada. As wood-nesters, many large carpenter bees are likely capable of expanding their range great distances by natural and unnatural transport methods while nesting inside suitable substrates, the presumed mode of transport into western Canada, and likely elsewhere. The ease at which the nests are transported has likely contributed to the nomenclatural and distributional ambiguity surrounding this species due to morphological similarities of specimens from North America, Hawaii, and several South Pacific islands.New informationBy comparing DNA barcodes of specimens from the western United States to specimens from Hawaii, we confirm the early opinion of P.H. Timberlake (Timberlake 1922) that specimens long established on the Hawaiian Islands are the same X. varipuncta from continental North America. Furthermore, these DNA barcode sequences also match those of specimens identified as X. sonorina Smith, 1874 from the French Polynesian and Samoan Islands, thus fully supporting the opinion of Groom et al. (2017) that all are likely conspecific. As X. sonorina, a species described from and likely introduced to Hawaii is the oldest name available, X. varipuncta is here placed into synonymy. Additional research will be needed to trace the timing and pathway of introduction and establishment of X. sonorina; it is presumed that the species is native to the southwestern United States but has been established in Hawaii since the mid-1800s. It is also established in French Polynesia, the Samoan Islands, and likely other south Pacific islands, with additional records of occurrence from Java, New Zealand, and now Canada.

Project description:Legionella spp. present in some human-made water systems can cause Legionnaires' disease in susceptible individuals. Although legionellae have been isolated from the natural environment, variations in the organism's abundance over time and its relationship to aquatic microbiota are poorly understood. Here, we investigated the presence and diversity of legionellae through 16S rRNA gene amplicon and metagenomic sequencing of DNA from isolates collected from seven sites in three watersheds with varied land uses over a period of 1 year. Legionella spp. were found in all watersheds and sampling sites, comprising up to 2.1% of the bacterial community composition. The relative abundance of Legionella tended to be higher in pristine sites than in sites affected by agricultural activity. The relative abundance levels of Amoebozoa, some of which are natural hosts of legionellae, were similarly higher in pristine sites. Compared to other bacterial genera detected, Legionella had both the highest richness and highest alpha diversity. Our findings indicate that a highly diverse population of legionellae may be found in a variety of natural aquatic sources. Further characterization of these diverse natural populations of Legionella will help inform prevention and control efforts aimed at reducing the risk of Legionella colonization of built environments, which could ultimately decrease the risk of human disease. IMPORTANCE Many species of Legionella can cause Legionnaires' disease, a significant cause of bacterial pneumonia. Legionella in human-made water systems such as cooling towers and building plumbing systems are the primary sources of Legionnaires' disease outbreaks. In this temporal study of natural aquatic environments, Legionella relative abundance was shown to vary in watersheds associated with different land uses. Analysis of the Legionella sequences detected at these sites revealed highly diverse populations that included potentially novel Legionella species. These findings have important implications for understanding the ecology of Legionella and control measures for this pathogen that are aimed at reducing human disease.

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Projected local rain events due to climate change and the impacts on waterborne diseases in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

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