Dataset Information

Growth curve modelling to determine distinct BMI trajectory groups in HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

Obesity is a major long-term concern in HIV-positive patients due to the pathogenic link between obesity and noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs). We aim to characterize changes in BMI over time on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and investigate the association between weight gain and survival in South Africa.

Design and methods

A prospective cohort study among HIV-positive adults on first-line ART between April 2004 and 2015 in Johannesburg, South Africa. We used latent-class growth modelling (adjusted for age, sex and CD4 cell count) to identify groups of individuals with similar patterns of change in BMI over time.

Results

Eleven thousand, two hundred and sixty-three patients were included. The best fit model involved two linear and two quadratic trajectories. Thirty-five percent of patients were categorized into group one (mean BMI at ART initiation, 20.4?kg/m; mean BMI after 8 years of follow-up, 20.9?kg/m), 38% into group two (24.5-26.2?kg/m), 21% into group three (29.5-32.6?kg/m) and 6% into group four (36.5-40.0?kg/m). Over the 8 years of follow-up, 6% of our cohort went down in BMI standard category, while 45% went up. The largest increase occurred in the first 12 months on ART. In years 2 through 8, we saw a more gradual increase in BMI.

Conclusion

The largest gain in BMI in HIV patients occurred in the first year on ART. During follow-up, over 50% of our population changed BMI categories putting them at an increased risk for NCDs. Consistent counselling on nutritional and lifestyle changes could help improve ART patients' long-term health outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Brennan AT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6939155 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Growth curve modelling to determine distinct BMI trajectory groups in HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

Brennan Alana T AT Berry Kaitlyn M KM Rosen Sydney S Stokes Andrew A Crowther Nigel J NJ George Jaya J Raal Frederick F Cassim Naseem N Sanne Ian I Long Lawrence L Fox Matthew P MP

AIDS (London, England) 20191101 13

<h4>Objective</h4>Obesity is a major long-term concern in HIV-positive patients due to the pathogenic link between obesity and noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs). We aim to characterize changes in BMI over time on antiretroviral therapy (ART) and investigate the association between weight gain and survival in South Africa.<h4>Design and methods</h4>A prospective cohort study among HIV-positive adults on first-line ART between April 2004 and 2015 in Johannesburg, South Africa. We used latent ...[more]

PMID: 31577571

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Substantial reductions in adult mortality have been observed in South Africa since the mid-2000s, but there has been no formal evaluation of how much of this decline is attributable to the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), as previous models have not been calibrated to vital registration data. We developed a deterministic mathematical model to simulate the mortality trends that would have been expected in the absence of ART, and with earlier introduction of ART. METHODS AND FINDINGS:Model estimates of mortality rates in ART patients were obtained from the International Epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration. The model was calibrated to HIV prevalence data (1997-2013) and mortality data from the South African vital registration system (1997-2014), using a Bayesian approach. In the 1985-2014 period, 2.70 million adult HIV-related deaths occurred in South Africa. Adult HIV deaths peaked at 231,000 per annum in 2006 and declined to 95,000 in 2014, a reduction of 74.7% (95% CI: 73.3%-76.1%) compared to the scenario without ART. However, HIV mortality in 2014 was estimated to be 69% (95% CI: 46%-97%) higher in 2014 (161,000) if the model was calibrated only to HIV prevalence data. In the 2000-2014 period, the South African ART programme is estimated to have reduced the cumulative number of HIV deaths in adults by 1.72 million (95% CI: 1.58 million-1.84 million) and to have saved 6.15 million life years in adults (95% CI: 5.52 million-6.69 million). This compares with a potential saving of 8.80 million (95% CI: 7.90 million-9.59 million) life years that might have been achieved if South Africa had moved swiftly to implement WHO guidelines (2004-2013) and had achieved high levels of ART uptake in HIV-diagnosed individuals from 2004 onwards. The model is limited by its reliance on all-cause mortality data, given the lack of reliable cause-of-death reporting, and also does not allow for changes over time in tuberculosis control programmes and ART effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS:ART has had a dramatic impact on adult mortality in South Africa, but delays in the rollout of ART, especially in the early stages of the ART programme, have contributed to substantial loss of life. This is the first study to our knowledge to calibrate a model of ART impact to population-level recorded death data in Africa; models that are not calibrated to population-level death data may overestimate HIV-related mortality.

Project description:The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa substantially reduced AIDS-related deaths and new HIV infections. However, its success is threatened by the emergence of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI). The MARISA (Modelling Antiretroviral drug Resistance In South Africa) model presented here aims at investigating the time trends and factors driving NNRTI resistance in South Africa. MARISA is a compartmental model that includes the key aspects of the local HIV epidemic: continuum of care, disease progression, and gender. The dynamics of NNRTI resistance emergence and transmission are then added to this framework. Model parameters are informed using data from HIV cohorts participating in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) and literature estimates, or fitted to UNAIDS estimates. Using this novel approach of triangulating clinical and resistance data from various sources, MARISA reproduces the time trends of HIV in South Africa in 2005-2016, with a decrease in new infections, undiagnosed individuals, and AIDS-related deaths. MARISA captures the dynamics of the spread of NNRTI resistance: high levels of acquired drug resistance (ADR, in 83% of first-line treatment failures in 2016), and increasing transmitted drug resistance (TDR, in 8.1% of ART initiators in 2016). Simulation of counter-factual scenarios reflecting alternative public health policies shows that increasing treatment coverage would have resulted in fewer new infections and deaths, at the cost of higher TDR (11.6% in 2016 for doubling the treatment rate). Conversely, improving switching to second-line treatment would have led to lower TDR (6.5% in 2016 for doubling the switching rate) and fewer new infections and deaths. Implementing drug resistance testing would have had little impact. The rapid ART scale-up and inadequate switching to second-line treatment were the key drivers of the spread of NNRTI resistance in South Africa. However, even though some interventions could have substantially reduced the level of NNRTI resistance, no policy including NNRTI-based first line regimens could have prevented this spread. Thus, by combining epidemiological data on HIV in South Africa with biological data on resistance evolution, our modelling approach identified key factors driving NNRTI resistance, highlighting the need of alternative first-line regimens.

Project description:BackgroundWhile South Africa spends approximately 7.4% of GDP on healthcare, only 43% of these funds are spent in the public system, which is tasked with the provision of care to the majority of the population including a large proportion of those in need of antiretroviral treatment (ART). South Africa is currently debating the introduction of a National Health Insurance (NHI) system. Because such a universal health system could mean increased public healthcare funding and improved access to human resources, it could improve the sustainability of ART provision. This paper considers the minimum resources that would be required to achieve the proposed universal health system and contrasts these with the costs of scaled up access to ART between 2010 and 2020.MethodsThe costs of ART and universal coverage (UC) are assessed through multiplying unit costs, utilization and estimates of the population in need during each year of the planning cycle. Costs are from the provider's perspective reflected in real 2007 prices.ResultsThe annual costs of providing ART increase from US$1 billion in 2010 to US$3.6 billion in 2020. If increases in funding to public healthcare only keep pace with projected real GDP growth, then close to 30% of these resources would be required for ART by 2020. However, an increase in the public healthcare resource envelope from 3.2% to 5%-6% of GDP would be sufficient to finance both ART and other services under a universal system (if based on a largely public sector model) and the annual costs of ART would not exceed 15% of the universal health system budget.ConclusionsResponding to the HIV-epidemic is one of the many challenges currently facing South Africa. Whether this response becomes a "resource for democracy" or whether it undermines social cohesiveness within poor communities and between rich and poor communities will be partially determined by the steps that are taken during the next ten years. While the introduction of a universal system will be complex, it could generate a health system responsive to the needs of all South Africans.

Dataset Information

Growth curve modelling to determine distinct BMI trajectory groups in HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

Objective

Design and methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Growth curve modelling to determine distinct BMI trajectory groups in HIV-positive adults on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

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