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Divergent trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality in India from 2000 to 2015: a nationally representative mortality study.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:India accounts for about a fifth of cardiovascular deaths globally, but nationally representative data on mortality trends are not yet available. In this nationwide mortality study, we aimed to assess the trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality over 15 years using the Million Death Study. METHODS:We determined national and subnational cardiovascular mortality rates and trends by sex and birth cohort using cause of death ascertained by verbal autopsy from 2001 to 2013 among 2·4 million households. We derived mortality rates for ischaemic heart disease and stroke by applying mortality proportions to UN mortality estimates for India and projected the rates from 2000 to 2015. FINDINGS:Cardiovascular disease caused more than 2·1 million deaths in India in 2015 at all ages, or more than a quarter of all deaths. At ages 30-69 years, of 1·3 million cardiovascular deaths, 0·9 million (68·4%) were caused by ischaemic heart disease and 0·4 million (28·0%) by stroke. At these ages, the probability of dying from ischaemic heart disease increased during 2000-15, from 10·4% to 13·1% in men and 4·8% to 6·6% in women. Ischaemic heart disease mortality rates in rural areas increased rapidly and surpassed those in urban areas. By contrast, the probability of dying from stroke decreased from 5·7% to 5·0% in men and 5·0% to 3·9% in women. A third of premature stroke deaths occurred in the northeastern states, inhabited by a sixth of India's population, where rates increased significantly and were three times higher than the national average. The increased mortality rates of ischaemic heart disease nationally and stroke in the northeastern states were higher in the cohorts of adults born in the 1970s onwards, than in earlier decades. A large and growing proportion of the ischaemic heart disease nationally and stroke deaths in high-burden states reported earlier diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, but low medication use. INTERPRETATION:The unexpectedly diverse patterns of cardiovascular mortality require investigation to identify the role of established and new cardiovascular risk factors. Secondary prevention with effective and inexpensive long-term treatment and adult smoking cessation could prevent substantial numbers of premature deaths. Without progress against the control of cardiovascular disease in India, global goals to reduce non-communicable diseases by 2030 will be difficult to achieve. FUNDING:Fogarty International Center of the US National Institutes of Health, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Indian Council of Medical Research, and the Disease Control Priorities.

SUBMITTER: Ke C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6942542 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Divergent trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality in India from 2000 to 2015: a nationally representative mortality study.

Ke Calvin C Gupta Rajeev R Xavier Denis D Prabhakaran Dorairaj D Mathur Prashant P Kalkonde Yogeshwar V YV Kolpak Patrycja P Suraweera Wilson W Jha Prabhat P

The Lancet. Global health 20180801 8

<h4>Introduction</h4>India accounts for about a fifth of cardiovascular deaths globally, but nationally representative data on mortality trends are not yet available. In this nationwide mortality study, we aimed to assess the trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality over 15 years using the Million Death Study.<h4>Methods</h4>We determined national and subnational cardiovascular mortality rates and trends by sex and birth cohort using cause of death ascertained by verbal autopsy fro ...[more]

PMID: 30012272

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Project description:BackgroundDocumentation of the demographic and geographical details of changes in cause-specific neonatal (younger than 1 month) and 1-59-month mortality in India can guide further progress in reduction of child mortality. In this study we report the changes in cause-specific child mortality between 2000 and 2015 in India.MethodsSince 2001, the Registrar General of India has implemented the Million Death Study (MDS) in 1·3 million homes in more than 7000 randomly selected areas of India. About 900 non-medical surveyors do structured verbal autopsies for deaths recorded in these homes. Each field report is assigned randomly to two of 404 trained physicians to classify the cause of death, with a standard process for resolution of disagreements. We combined the proportions of child deaths according to the MDS for 2001-13 with annual UN estimates of national births and deaths (partitioned across India's states and rural or urban areas) for 2000-15. We calculated the annual percentage change in sex-specific and cause-specific mortality between 2000 and 2015 for neonates and 1-59-month-old children.FindingsThe MDS captured 52 252 deaths in neonates and 42 057 deaths at 1-59 months. Examining specific causes, the neonatal mortality rate from infection fell by 66% from 11·9 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 4·0 per 1000 livebirths in 2015 and the rate from birth asphyxia or trauma fell by 76% from 9·0 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 2·2 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. At 1-59 months, the mortality rate from pneumonia fell by 63% from 11·2 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 4·2 per 1000 livebirths in 2015 and the rate from diarrhoea fell by 66% from 9·4 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 3·2 per 1000 livebirths in 2015 (with narrowing girl-boy gaps). The neonatal tetanus mortality rate fell from 1·6 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to less than 0·1 per 1000 livebirths in 2015 and the 1-59-month measles mortality rate fell from 3·3 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 0·3 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. By contrast, mortality rates for prematurity or low birthweight rose from 12·3 per 1000 livebirths in 2000 to 14·3 per 1000 livebirths in 2015, driven mostly by increases in term births with low birthweight in poorer states and rural areas. 29 million cumulative child deaths occurred from 2000 to 2015. The average annual decline in mortality rates from 2000 to 2015 was 3·3% for neonates and 5·4% for children aged 1-59 months. Annual declines from 2005 to 2015 (3·4% decline for neonatal mortality and 5·9% decline in 1-59-month mortality) were faster than were annual declines from 2000 to 2005 (3·2% decline for neonatal mortality and 4·5% decline in 1-59-month mortality). These faster declines indicate that India avoided about 1 million child deaths compared with continuation of the 2000-05 declines.InterpretationTo meet the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals for child mortality, India will need to maintain the current trajectory of 1-59-month mortality and accelerate declines in neonatal mortality (to >5% annually) from 2015 onwards. Continued progress in reduction of child mortality due to pneumonia, diarrhoea, malaria, and measles at 1-59 months is feasible. Additional attention to low birthweight is required.FundingNational Institutes of Health, Disease Control Priorities Network, Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation Group, and University of Toronto.

Project description:ObjectiveTo assess national and regional trends and causes-specific distribution of maternal mortality in India.DesignNationally representative cross-sectional surveys.SettingAll of India from 1997 to 2020.SampleAbout 10 000 maternal deaths among 4.3 million live births over two decades.MethodsWe analysed trends in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) from 1997 through 2020, estimated absolute maternal deaths and examined the causes of maternal death using nationally representative data sources. We partitioned female deaths (aged 15-49 years) and live birth totals, based on the 2001-2014 Million Death Study to United Nations (UN) demographic totals for the country.Main outcome measuresMaternal mortality burden and distribution of causes.ResultsThe MMR declined in India by about 70% from 398/100 000 live births (95% CI 378-417) in 1997-98 to 99/100 000 (90-108) in 2020. About 1.30 million (95% CI 1.26-1.35 million) maternal deaths occurred between 1997 and 2020, with about 23 800 (95% CI 21 700-26 000) in 2020, with most occurring in poorer states (63%) and among women aged 20-29 years (58%). The MMRs for Assam (215), Uttar Pradesh/Uttarakhand (192) and Madhya Pradesh/Chhattisgarh (170) were highest, surpassing India's 2016-2018 estimate of 113 (95% CI 103-123). After adjustment for education and other variables, the risks of maternal death were highest in rural and tribal areas of north-eastern and northern states. The leading causes of maternal death were obstetric haemorrhage (47%; higher in poorer states), pregnancy-related infection (12%) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (7%).ConclusionsIndia could achieve the UN 2030 MMR goals if the average rate of reduction is maintained. However, without further intervention, the poorer states will not.Tweetable abstractWe estimated that 1.3 million Indian women died from maternal causes over the last two decades. Although maternal mortality rates have fallen by 70% overall, the poorer states lag behind.

Project description:BackgroundWHO estimates that about 170,000 deaths by suicide occur in India every year, but few epidemiological studies of suicide have been done in the country. We aimed to quantify suicide mortality in India in 2010.MethodsThe Registrar General of India implemented a nationally representative mortality survey to determine the cause of deaths occurring between 2001 and 2003 in 1·1 million homes in 6671 small areas chosen randomly from all parts of India. As part of this survey, fieldworkers obtained information about cause of death and risk factors for suicide from close associates or relatives of the deceased individual. Two of 140 trained physicians were randomly allocated (stratified only by their ability to read the local language in which each survey was done) to independently and anonymously assign a cause to each death on the basis of electronic field reports. We then applied the age-specific and sex-specific proportion of suicide deaths in this survey to the 2010 UN estimates of absolute numbers of deaths in India to estimate the number of suicide deaths in India in 2010.FindingsAbout 3% of the surveyed deaths (2684 of 95,335) in individuals aged 15 years or older were due to suicide, corresponding to about 187,000 suicide deaths in India in 2010 at these ages (115,000 men and 72,000 women; age-standardised rates per 100,000 people aged 15 years or older of 26·3 for men and 17·5 for women). For suicide deaths at ages 15 years or older, 40% of suicide deaths in men (45,100 of 114,800) and 56% of suicide deaths in women (40,500 of 72,100) occurred at ages 15-29 years. A 15-year-old individual in India had a cumulative risk of about 1·3% of dying before the age of 80 years by suicide; men had a higher risk (1·7%) than did women (1·0%), with especially high risks in south India (3·5% in men and 1·8% in women). About half of suicide deaths were due to poisoning (mainly ingestions of pesticides).InterpretationSuicide death rates in India are among the highest in the world. A large proportion of adult suicide deaths occur between the ages of 15 years and 29 years, especially in women. Public health interventions such as restrictions in access to pesticides might prevent many suicide deaths in India.FundingUS National Institutes of Health.

Project description:National malaria death rates are difficult to assess because reliably diagnosed malaria is likely to be cured, and deaths in the community from undiagnosed malaria could be misattributed in retrospective enquiries to other febrile causes of death, or vice-versa. We aimed to estimate plausible ranges of malaria mortality in India, the most populous country where the disease remains common.Full-time non-medical field workers interviewed families or other respondents about each of 122,000 deaths during 2001-03 in 6671 randomly selected areas of India, obtaining a half-page narrative plus answers to specific questions about the severity and course of any fevers. Each field report was sent to two of 130 trained physicians, who independently coded underlying causes, with discrepancies resolved either via anonymous reconciliation or adjudication.Of all coded deaths at ages 1 month to 70 years, 2681 (3·6%) of 75,342 were attributed to malaria. Of these, 2419 (90%) were in rural areas and 2311 (86%) were not in any health-care facility. Death rates attributed to malaria correlated geographically with local malaria transmission ratesderived independently from the Indian malaria control programme. The adjudicated results show 205,000 malaria deaths per year in India before age 70 years (55,000 in early childhood, 30,000 at ages 5-14 years, 120,000 at ages 15-69 years); 1·8% cumulative probability of death from malaria before age 70 years. Plausible lower and upper bounds (on the basis of only the initial coding) were 125,000-277,000. Malaria accounted for a substantial minority of about 1·3 million unattended rural fever deaths attributed to infectious diseases in people younger than 70 years.Despite uncertainty as to which unattended febrile deaths are from malaria, even the lower bound greatly exceeds the WHO estimate of only 15,000 malaria deaths per year in India (5000 early childhood, 10?000 thereafter). This low estimate should be reconsidered, as should the low WHO estimate of adult malaria deaths worldwide.US National Institutes of Health, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute.

Project description:BackgroundMore than 2·3 million children died in India in 2005; however, the major causes of death have not been measured in the country. We investigated the causes of neonatal and child mortality in India and their differences by sex and region.MethodsThe Registrar General of India surveyed all deaths occurring in 2001-03 in 1·1 million nationally representative homes. Field staff interviewed household members and completed standard questions about events that preceded the death. Two of 130 physicians then independently assigned a cause to each death. Cause-specific mortality rates for 2005 were calculated nationally and for the six regions by combining the recorded proportions for each cause in the neonatal deaths and deaths at ages 1-59 months in the study with population and death totals from the United Nations.FindingsThere were 10,892 deaths in neonates and 12,260 in children aged 1-59 months in the study. When these details were projected nationally, three causes accounted for 78% (0·79 million of 1·01 million) of all neonatal deaths: prematurity and low birthweight (0·33 million, 99% CI 0·31 million to 0·35 million), neonatal infections (0·27 million, 0·25 million to 0·29 million), and birth asphyxia and birth trauma (0·19 million, 0·18 million to 0·21 million). Two causes accounted for 50% (0·67 million of 1·34 million) of all deaths at 1-59 months: pneumonia (0·37 million, 0·35 million to 0·39 million) and diarrhoeal diseases (0·30 million, 0·28 million to 0·32 million). In children aged 1-59 months, girls in central India had a five-times higher mortality rate (per 1000 livebirths) from pneumonia (20·9, 19·4-22·6) than did boys in south India (4·1, 3·0-5·6) and four-times higher mortality rate from diarrhoeal disease (17·7, 16·2-19·3) than did boys in west India (4·1, 3·0-5·5).InterpretationFive avoidable causes accounted for nearly 1·5 million child deaths in India in 2005, with substantial differences between regions and sexes. Expanded neonatal and intrapartum care, case management of diarrhoea and pneumonia, and addition of new vaccines to immunisation programmes could substantially reduce child deaths in India.FundingUS National Institutes of Health, International Development Research Centre, Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, and US Fund for UNICEF.

Dataset Information

Divergent trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality in India from 2000 to 2015: a nationally representative mortality study.

Publications

Divergent trends in ischaemic heart disease and stroke mortality in India from 2000 to 2015: a nationally representative mortality study.

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