Dataset Information

A validated composite model to predict risk of curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

ABSTRACT: Background:In adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), the continuous search for effective prognostication of significant curve progression at the initial clinical consultation to inform decision for timely treatment and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment remains a big challenge as evidence of the multifactorial etiopathogenic nature is increasingly reported. This study aimed to formulate a composite model composed of clinical parameters and circulating markers in the prediction of curve progression. Method:This is a two-phase study consisting of an exploration cohort (120 AIS, mean Cobb angle of 25°± 8.5 at their first clinical visit) and a validation cohort (51 AIS, mean Cobb angle of 23° ± 5.0° at the first visit). Patients with AIS were followed-up for a minimum of six years to formulate a composite model for prediction. At the first visit, clinical parameters were collected from routine clinical practice, and circulating markers were assayed from blood. Finding:We constructed the composite predictive model for curve progression to severe Cobb angle > 40° with a high HR of 27.9 (95% CI of 6.55 to 119.16). The area under curve of the composite model is higher than that of individual parameters used in current clinical practice. The model was validated by an independent cohort and achieved a sensitivity of 72.7% and a specificity of 90%. Interpretation:This is the first study proposing and validating a prognostic composite model consisting of clinical and circulating parameters which could quantitatively evaluate the probability of curve progression to a severe curvature in AIS at the initial consultation. Further validation in clinic will facilitate application of composite model in assisting objective clinical decision.

SUBMITTER: Zhang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6948250 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A validated composite model to predict risk of curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Zhang Jiajun J Cheuk Ka-Yee KY Xu Leilei L Wang Yujia Y Feng Zhenhua Z Sit Tony T Cheng Ka-Lo KL Nepotchatykh Evguenia E Lam Tsz-Ping TP Liu Zhen Z Hung Alec L H ALH Zhu Zezhang Z Moreau Alain A Cheng Jack C Y JCY Qiu Yong Y Lee Wayne Y W WYW

EClinicalMedicine 20200105

<h4>Background</h4>In adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), the continuous search for effective prognostication of significant curve progression at the initial clinical consultation to inform decision for timely treatment and to avoid unnecessary overtreatment remains a big challenge as evidence of the multifactorial etiopathogenic nature is increasingly reported. This study aimed to formulate a composite model composed of clinical parameters and circulating markers in the prediction of curve p ...[more]

PMID: 31922123

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundThe Proximal Femur Maturity Index (PFMI) can be used to assess skeletal maturity on existing whole-spine radiographs without additional radiation. However, the relationship between the PFMI at the initiation of bracing for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) and subsequent curve progression remains unknown. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the PFMI and curve progression, and the predictability of risks to adulthood curve progression and surgical thresholds based on the PFMI grade at brace initiation.MethodsThis was a prospective study of 202 patients with AIS who were prescribed underarm bracing according to the Scoliosis Research Society criteria and had good brace-wear compliance. The patients were followed from brace initiation until complete skeletal maturity. Longitudinal data on the coronal Cobb angle and skeletal maturity assessments using Risser staging, Sanders staging, the distal radius and ulna classification, and the PFMI were collected. Each patient was assessed on whether the major curve progressed to ≥40° (adulthood deterioration) and ≥50° (the surgical threshold). Logistic regressions were used to predict probabilities of curve progression to the 2 thresholds, adjusted for factors that were significant in univariate analyses.ResultsThe PFMI correlated with the other skeletal maturity indices (r s [Spearman rank correlation] = 0.60 to 0.72, p < 0.001 for all). The pre-brace PFMI grade correlated with progression to ≥40° (r rb [rank-biserial correlation] = -0.30, p < 0.001) and to ≥50° (r rb = -0.20, p = 0.005). Based on regression models (p < 0.001) adjusted for the pre-brace major Cobb angle and curve type, brace initiation at PFMI grades 2 and 3 for a curve of ≥30° had predicted risks of 30% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4% to 55%) and 12% (95% CI, 7% to 17%), respectively, for progression to the surgical threshold. Brace initiation at PFMI grade 5 had 0% progression risk.ConclusionsThe PFMI can be used for predicting curve progression and prognosticating brace outcomes in AIS. Patients with brace initiation at PFMI grade 4 for a curve of <30° or at grade 5 were unlikely to progress to the adulthood deterioration or surgical threshold. In comparison, skeletally immature patients initiating bracing at a PFMI grade of ≤3 for a major curve of ≥30° had a higher risk of progression despite compliant brace wear.Level of evidencePrognostic Level II . See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Project description:There is no consensus on the definition of a structural proximal thoracic curve (PTC) and the indications for fusion. As such, we assessed a single institute's experience in the management of large PTCs (>35 degrees) in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) who were either fused or not fused. A retrospective radiographic analyses of 30 consecutive AIS patients with double thoracic curves who underwent PSF with a minimum of 2 years' follow-up were included for review. The patients were divided into two groups: group 1 (n = 15 patients) with fusion extended up to T2 or T3 and group 2 (n = 15) with fusion limited to T5 or below. Shoulder balance was assessed according to clavicular angle, first-rib difference, and radiographic shoulder height difference (SHD). PTCs were defined based on a Cobb angle of >35, the presence of apical rotation, and a positive T1 tilt. The decision to fuse the PTC was based on curve magnitude only, with those between 35 and 45 degrees undergoing a selective fusion of the main thoracic curve (MTC), with both curves fused if the PTC was more than 45 degrees. In group 1, there were eight females and seven males. Their ages ranged between 12 and 33 years, with a mean of 16.2 ± 5.5 years. Postoperatively, the mean PTC correction was 45.6%, which statistically differed from preoperative status (p = 0.001). No statistical difference was noted in T1 tilt and the first-rib difference from preoperative to postoperative follow-up (p > 0.05). However, the clavicular angle and SHD were increased significantly at the immediate postoperative interval (p < 0.05) but demonstrated no significant changes between the initial and the last follow-up values (p > 0.05). Group 2 consisted of one male and 14 females. The mean age was 16.4 ± 4 years (range: 11 to 28 years). The mean spontaneous PTC correction was 28.3% and remained essentially unchanged at the end of the follow-up. The improvement in the curve from preoperative status was highly statistically significant (p = 0.001). All radiographic shoulder parameters exhibited a significant increase in the immediate postoperative period and at last follow-up, and shoulder balance improvement was not noted on follow-up. Although both groups were not statistically similar with regards to the preoperative PTC, AVR, apical vertebral translation, and shoulder parameters, no significant difference could be found in PTC or shoulder parameters between both groups at last follow-up (p > 0.05). Our study illustrates important observations that should be considered in defining the PTC for fusion consideration. Spontaneous correction of the PTC occurs in structural curves greater than 35 degrees and less than 45 degrees, and this correction is maintained over time. Despite that correction, radiographic shoulder parameters are expected to slightly increase. Nonfusion strategy may be appropriate for PTCs between 35 and 45 degrees. After fusion of both the MTC and the PTC, the radiographic shoulder parameters did not significantly differ. Preoperative radiographic shoulder parameters are not predictive of postoperative shoulder imbalance.

Project description:BackgroundThere is an acknowledged discrepancy between radiographic and cosmetic parameters for patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). However, no study has specifically evaluated cosmesis in patients with congenital scoliosis (CS). Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify the cosmetic differences between patients with CS and case-matched patients with AIS and to investigate the correlation between radiological measurements and clinical cosmetic assessment indices.MethodsA total of 37 adolescents with CS and 37 sex-, age-, and curve magnitude-matched patients with AIS were included. Cobb angle, shoulder height difference (SHD), coronal balance (CB), T1 tilt, first rib angle (FRA), clavicle angle (CA), clavicle-rib cage intersection (CRCI), and apical vertebra translation (AVT) were measured in the full X-ray of the spine. Shoulder area index 1 (SAI1), shoulder area index 2 (SAI2), shoulder angle (SA), axilla angle (AA), thoracolumbar area index (TLAI), and right and left waist angle difference (RLWAD) were measured on the clinical images from a posterior view. Hump index (HI) was measured in the forward bending photography. All patients completed the Scoliosis Research Society-22 (SRS-22) questionnaire.ResultsNo significant difference was noted in the radiographic parameters between the AIS and CS groups (P>0.05). However, patients with CS exhibited significantly lower SAI1 (0.91 vs. 0.98; P=0.002) and SAI2 (0.85 vs. 0.95; P=0.001) than did the patients with AIS. The SRS-22 scores for self-image and mental health in patients with CS were significantly lower than those in patients with AIS (P<0.05). The correlation coefficients with statistical significance between radiographic and cosmetic measurements in patients with CS and those with AIS ranged from -0.493 to 0.534 and from -0.653 to 0.717, respectively. None of the correlation coefficients exceeded 0.8, indicating that the current radiological indices only exhibited a limited level of consistency with patients' cosmesis.ConclusionsAs compared with age-, gender-, and curve pattern-matched patients with AIS, patients with CS exhibited worse cosmesis and had clinically significantly lower SRS-22 scores despite having relatively small clinical differences. Although the radiographic parameters may not always align with clinical presentation, this discrepancy could be observed in both patients with CS and those with AIS.

Project description:BackgroundPrediction of curve progression risk in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) remains elusive. Prior studies have revealed the potential for three-dimensional (3D) morphological parameters to prognosticate progression, but these require specialized biplanar imaging equipment and labor-intensive software reconstruction. This study aimed to formulate a deep learning model with standing posteroanterior (PA) X-rays at first clinic visit to differentiate between progressive (P) and non-progressive (NP) curves.MethodsFor this retrospective cohort study, we identified patients presenting with AIS between October 2015 to April 2020 at our tertiary referral centre. Patients with mild curvatures (11 - 30o) who were skeletally immature (Risser sign of ≤2) were recruited. Patients receiving biplanar X-ray radiographs (EOS™) were divided between a training-cross-validation cohort (328 patients) and independent testing cohort (110 patients). Another 52 patients receiving standard PA spinal X-rays were recruited for cross-platform validation. Following 3D reconstruction, we designated the major curve apex upon PA X-rays as the region of interest (ROI) for machine learning. A self-attentive capsule network was constructed to differentiate between curves manifesting P and NP trajectories. A two-stage transfer learning strategy was introduced to pre-train and fine-tune the model. Model performance (accuracy, sensitivity, specificity) was compared to that of traditional convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and a clinical parameter-based logistic regression model.Findings3D reconstruction identified that apical rotation of the major curve and torsion were significantly different between P and NP curve trajectories. Our predictive model utilizing an ROI centered on the major curve apex achieved an accuracy of 76.6%, a sensitivity of 75.2% and a specificity of 80.2% upon independent testing. Cross-platform performance upon standard standing PA X-rays yielded an accuracy of 77.1%, a sensitivity of 73.5% and a specificity of 81.0%. Errors in prediction occurred when the degree of apical rotation / torsion was discrepant from that of the subsequent curve trajectory but could be rectified by considering serial X-rays. Performance was superior to that of traditional CNNs as well as clinical parameter-based regression models.InterpretationThis is the first report of automated prediction of AIS curve progression based on radiomics and deep learning, towards directing treatment strategy at first visit. Patients predicted to be at-risk of progression may be counselled to receive early bracing with enforcement of treatment compliance. Over-treatment may be avoided in curves deemed to be non-progressive. Results need to be consolidated in larger sample populations of different ethnicities.FundingThe Society for the Relief of Disabled Children (SRDC).

Dataset Information

A validated composite model to predict risk of curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Publications

A validated composite model to predict risk of curve progression in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets