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Characterizing the Spatial Determinants and Prevention of Malaria in Kenya.

ABSTRACT: The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3 is to ensure health and well-being for all at all ages with a specific target to end malaria by 2030. Aligned with this goal, the primary objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of utilizing local spatial variations to uncover the statistical relationships between malaria incidence rate and environmental and behavioral factors across the counties of Kenya. Two data sources are used-Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys of 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015, and the national Malaria Indicator Survey of 2015. The spatial analysis shows clustering of counties with high malaria incidence rate, or hot spots, in the Lake Victoria region and the east coastal area around Mombasa; there are significant clusters of counties with low incidence rate, or cold spot areas in Nairobi. We apply an analysis technique, geographically weighted regression, that helps to better model how environmental and social determinants are related to malaria incidence rate while accounting for the confounding effects of spatial non-stationarity. Some general patterns persist over the four years of observation. We establish that variables including rainfall, proximity to water, vegetation, and population density, show differential impacts on the incidence of malaria in Kenya. The El-Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO) event in 2015 was significant in driving up malaria in the southern region of Lake Victoria compared with prior time-periods. The applied spatial multivariate clustering analysis indicates the significance of social and behavioral survey responses. This study can help build a better spatially explicit predictive model for malaria in Kenya capturing the role and spatial distribution of environmental, social, behavioral, and other characteristics of the households.

SUBMITTER: Gopal S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6950158 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Characterizing the Spatial Determinants and Prevention of Malaria in Kenya.

Gopal Sucharita S Ma Yaxiong Y Xin Chen C Pitts Joshua J Were Lawrence L

International journal of environmental research and public health 20191212 24

The United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 3 is to ensure health and well-being for all at all ages with a specific target to end malaria by 2030. Aligned with this goal, the primary objective of this study is to determine the effectiveness of utilizing local spatial variations to uncover the statistical relationships between malaria incidence rate and environmental and behavioral factors across the counties of Kenya. Two data sources are used-Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys of 2000, ...[more]

PMID: 31842408

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Project description:IntroductionInjury accounts for more than 5.8 million deaths globally with an increasing burden in the developing world. In Kenya, trauma is one of the top 10 leading causes of death. However, no formal continuous injury surveillance systems are in place to inform injury prevention, pre-hospital care or emergency department management. The aim of this study was to implement a hospital-based trauma registry to characterize high acuity injuries presenting to a private tertiary, teaching and referral hospital in Kenya.MethodsFrom January to December 2015, data was prospectively collected at a private tertiary, teaching and referral hospital in Nairobi, Kenya. Patients presenting with a traumatic injury for the first time who were admitted to the hospital for at least 48 hours were included in the study. Basic information pertaining to demographics, details of the injury, pre-hospital care and transport, hospital-based management, length of stay and disposition were collected. An injury severity score (ISS) was calculated on each patient and stratified by the mechanism of injury. Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were used to analyze data and assess risk factors associated with injury severity.ResultsThere were 101 patients included in the study, the majority of whom were 30 to 39 years of age and male (63%). Seventy-one per cent of patients had a preexisting medical condition with hypertension (26%) and diabetes (13%) being the most common. The most common mechanism of injury was fall (46%) followed by road traffic incidents (RTI) (32%). Most injuries took place at home (43%). Most RTI were caused by cars (63%), with the driver being the most frequently injured (38%). The most common mode of arrival to the emergency department was by private car (72%). The median time between the accident and arrival at the emergency department was 1hr 10 minutes. The majority of the patients had injuries to one area (83%) with the extremities/bony pelvis (72%) being the most common. The median Injury Severity Score was 5 (range 1-34) with the majority (90%) classified as minor injuries (ISS<12). The highest severity of injury as determined by ISS was seen in gunshot wounds.ConclusionsInjured patients in Kenya showed concordance with prior studies looking at injury prevalence in the developing world when looking at demographics and place of injury. However, differences were found when looking at the mechanism of injury, with falls surpassing road traffic incidents. A delayed presentation to the hospital was also noted in this patient population. Given the rate of traumatic injuries in Kenya and their contribution to morbidity, mortality and overall healthcare costs, there is a need to implement formal trauma registries in all major hospitals in Kenya to generate more data that can be used to improve injury prevention, the overall trauma system and enhance training and preparedness.

Project description:Encouraging progress has been seen with reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in some parts of Africa. Reduced transmission might lead to increasing susceptibility to malaria among older children due to lower acquired immunity, and this has implications for ongoing control strategies.We conducted a longitudinal observational study of children admitted to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya and linked it to data on residence and insecticide-treated net (ITN) use. This included data from 69,104 children aged from 3 mo to 13 y admitted to Kilifi County Hospital between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2014. The variation in malaria slide positivity among admissions was examined in logistic regression models using the following predictors: location of the residence, calendar time, the child's age, ITN use, and the enhanced vegetation index (a proxy for soil moisture). The proportion of malaria slide-positive admissions declined from 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.58) in 1998 to 0.07 (95% CI 0.06-0.08) in 2009 but then increased again through to 0.24 (95% CI 0.22-0.25) in 2014. Older children accounted for most of the increase after 2009 (0.035 [95% CI 0.030-0.040] among young children compared to 0.22 [95% CI 0.21-0.23] in older children). There was a nonlinear relationship between malaria risk and prevalence of ITN use within a 2 km radius of an admitted child's residence such that the predicted malaria positive fraction varied from ~0.4 to <0.1 as the prevalence of ITN use varied from 20% to 80%. In this observational analysis, we were unable to determine the cause of the decline in malaria between 1998 and 2009, which pre-dated the dramatic scale-up in ITN distribution and use.Following a period of reduced transmission, a cohort of older children emerged who have increased susceptibility to malaria. Further reductions in malaria transmission are needed to mitigate the increasing burden among older children, and universal ITN coverage is a promising strategy to achieve this goal.

Dataset Information

Characterizing the Spatial Determinants and Prevention of Malaria in Kenya.

Publications

Characterizing the Spatial Determinants and Prevention of Malaria in Kenya.

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