Dataset Information

Pre-deployment predictors of suicide attempt during and after combat deployment: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Deployment-related experiences might be risk factors for soldier suicides, in which case identification of vulnerable soldiers before deployment could inform preventive efforts. We investigated this possibility by using pre-deployment survey and administrative data in a sample of US Army soldiers to develop a risk model for suicide attempt (SA) during and shortly after deployment. METHODS:Data came from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers Pre-Post Deployment Survey (PPDS). Soldiers completed a baseline survey shortly before deploying to Afghanistan in 2011-2012. Survey measures were used to predict SAs, defined using administrative and subsequent survey data, through 30 months after deployment. Models were built using penalized regression and ensemble machine learning methods. RESULTS:Significant pre-deployment risk factors were history of traumatic brain injury, 9 + mental health treatment visits in the 12 months before deployment, young age, female, previously married, and low relationship quality. Cross-validated AUC of the best penalized and ensemble models were .75-.77. 21.3-40.4% of SAs occurred among the 5-10% of soldiers with highest predicted risk and positive predictive value (PPV) among these high-risk soldiers was 4.4-5.7%. CONCLUSIONS:SA can be predicted significantly from pre-deployment data, but intervention planning needs to take PPV into consideration.

SUBMITTER: Zuromski KL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6953717 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pre-deployment predictors of suicide attempt during and after combat deployment: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers.

Zuromski Kelly L KL Bernecker Samantha L SL Chu Carol C Wilks Chelsey R CR Gutierrez Peter M PM Joiner Thomas E TE Liu Howard H Naifeh James A JA Nock Matthew K MK Sampson Nancy A NA Zaslavsky Alan M AM Stein Murray B MB Ursano Robert J RJ Kessler Ronald C RC

Journal of psychiatric research 20191207

<h4>Background</h4>Deployment-related experiences might be risk factors for soldier suicides, in which case identification of vulnerable soldiers before deployment could inform preventive efforts. We investigated this possibility by using pre-deployment survey and administrative data in a sample of US Army soldiers to develop a risk model for suicide attempt (SA) during and shortly after deployment.<h4>Methods</h4>Data came from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers Pre- ...[more]

PMID: 31865211

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Project description:Importance:There has been limited systematic examination of whether risk of suicide attempt (SA) among US Army soldiers is associated with time-related deployment variables, such as time in service before first deployment, duration of first deployment, and dwell time (DT) (ie, length of time between deployments). Objective:To examine the associations of time-related deployment variables with subsequent SA among soldiers who had deployed twice. Design, Setting, and Participants:Using administrative data from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2009, this longitudinal, retrospective cohort study identified person-month records of active-duty Regular Army enlisted soldiers who had served continuously in the US Army for at least 2 years and deployed exactly twice. The dates of analysis were March 1 to December 1, 2017. There were 593 soldiers with a medically documented SA during or after their second deployment. An equal-probability sample of control person-months was selected from other soldiers with exactly 2 deployments (n?=?19?034). Logistic regression analyses examined the associations of time in service before first deployment, duration of first deployment, and DT with subsequent SA. Main Outcomes and Measures:Suicide attempts during or after second deployment were identified using US Department of Defense Suicide Event Report records and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification E950 to E958 diagnostic codes. Independent variables were constructed from US Army personnel records. Results:Among 593 SA cases, most were male (513 [86.5%]), white non-Hispanic (392 [66.1%]), at least high school educated (477 [80.4%]), currently married (398 [67.1%]), and younger than 21 years when they entered the US Army (384 [64.8%]). In multivariable models adjusting for sociodemographics, service-related characteristics, and previous mental health diagnosis, odds of SA during or after second deployment were higher among soldiers whose first deployment occurred within the first 12 months of service vs after 12 months (odds ratio, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.6-2.4) and among those with a DT of 6 months or less vs longer than 6 months (odds ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2-2.0). Duration of first deployment was not associated with subsequent SA. Analysis of 2-way interactions indicated that the associations of early deployment and DT with SA risk were not modified by other characteristics. Multivariable population-attributable risk proportions were 14.2% for deployment within the first 12 months of service and 4.0% for DT of 6 months or less. Conclusions and Relevance:Time in service before first deployment and DT are modifiable risk factors for SA risk among soldiers.

Project description:ImportanceThe Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) is a multicomponent study designed to generate actionable recommendations to reduce Army suicides and increase knowledge of risk and resilience factors for suicidality.ObjectivesTo present data on prevalence, trends, and basic sociodemographic and Army experience correlates of suicides and accident deaths among active duty Regular Army soldiers between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2009, and thereby establish a foundation for future Army STARRS investigations.Design, setting, and participantsAnalysis of trends and predictors of suicide and accident deaths using Army and Department of Defense administrative data systems. Participants were all members of the US Regular Army serving at any time between 2004 and 2009.Main outcomes and measuresDeath by suicide or accident during active Army service.ResultsThe suicide rate rose between 2004 and 2009 among never deployed and currently and previously deployed Regular Army soldiers. The accident death rate fell sharply among currently deployed soldiers, remained constant among the previously deployed, and trended upward among the never deployed. Increased suicide risk was associated with being a man (or a woman during deployment), white race/ethnicity, junior enlisted rank, recent demotion, and current or previous deployment. Sociodemographic and Army experience predictors were generally similar for suicides and accident deaths. Time trends in these predictors and in the Army's increased use of accession waivers (which relaxed some qualifications for new soldiers) do not explain the rise in Army suicides.Conclusions and relevancePredictors of Army suicides were largely similar to those reported elsewhere for civilians, although some predictors distinct to Army service emerged that deserve more in-depth analysis. The existence of a time trend in suicide risk among never-deployed soldiers argues indirectly against the view that exposure to combat-related trauma is the exclusive cause of the increase in Army suicides.

Project description:Objective: During the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, suicidal behaviors increased among U.S. Army soldiers. Although Reserve Component (RC) soldiers (National Guard and Army Reserve) comprise approximately one third of those deployed in support of the wars, few studies have examined suicidal behaviors among these "citizen-soldiers". The objective of this study is to examine suicide attempt risk factors and timing among RC enlisted soldiers. Methods: This longitudinal, retrospective cohort study used individual-level person-month records from Army and Department of Defense administrative data systems to examine socio-demographic, service-related, and mental health predictors of medically documented suicide attempts among enlisted RC soldiers during deployment from 2004-2009. Data were analyzed using discrete-time survival models. Results: A total of 230 enlisted RC soldiers attempted suicide. Overall, the in-theater suicide attempt rate among RC soldiers was 81/100,000 person-years. Risk was highest in the fifth month of deployment (13.8 per 100,000 person-months). Suicide attempts were more likely among soldiers who were women (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 2.5 [95% CI: 1.8-3.5]), less than high school educated (aOR = 1.8 [95% CI: 1.3-2.5]), in their first 2 years of service (aOR = 2.0 [95% CI: 1.2-3.4]), were currently married (aOR = 2.0 [95% CI: 1.5-2.7]), and had received a mental health diagnosis in the previous month (aOR = 24.7 [95% CI: 17.4-35.0]). Conclusions: Being female, early in service and currently married are associated with increased odds of suicide attempt in RC soldiers. Risk of suicide attempt was greatest at mid deployment. These predictors and the timing of suicide attempt for RC soldiers in-theater are largely consistent with those of deployed Active Component (Regular) soldiers. Results also reinforce and replicate the findings among Active Component soldiers related to the importance of a recent mental health diagnosis and the mid-deployment as a period of enhanced risk.

Project description:ImportanceThe Department of Veterans Affairs recently began requiring annual suicide ideation (SI) screening of all patients and additional structured questions for patients reporting SI. Related changes are under consideration at the Department of Defense. These changes will presumably lead to higher SI detection, which will require hiring additional clinical staff and/or developing a clinical decision support system to focus in-depth suicide risk assessments on patients considered high risk.ObjectiveTo carry out a proof-of-concept study for whether a brief structured question battery from a survey of US Army soldiers can help target in-depth suicide risk assessments by identifying soldiers with self-reported lifetime SI who are at highest risk of subsequent administratively recorded nonfatal suicide attempts (SAs).Design, setting, and participantsCohort study with prospective observational design. Data were collected from May 2011 to February 2013. Participants were followed up through December 2014. Analyses were conducted from March to November 2018. A logistic regression model was used to assess risk for subsequent administratively recorded nonfatal SAs. A total of 3649 Regular Army soldiers in 3 Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) surveys who reported lifetime SI were followed up for 18 to 45 months from baseline to assess administratively reported nonfatal SAs.Main outcomes and measuresOutcome was administratively recorded nonfatal SAs between survey response and December 2014. Predictors were survey variables.ResultsThe 3649 survey respondents were 80.5% male and had a median (interquartile range) age of 29 (25-36) years (range, 18-55 years); 69.4% were white non-Hispanic, 14.6% were black, 9.0% were Hispanic, 7.0% were another racial/ethnic group. Sixty-five respondents had administratively recorded nonfatal SAs between survey response and December 2014. One additional respondent died by suicide without making a nonfatal SA but was excluded from analysis based on previous evidence that predictors are different for suicide death and nonfatal SAs. Significant risk factors were SI recency (odds ratio [OR], 7.2; 95% CI, 2.9-18.0) and persistence (OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.0-6.8), positive screens for mental disorders (OR, 26.2; 95% CI, 6.1-112.0), and Army career characteristics (OR for junior enlisted rank, 30.0; 95% CI, 3.3-272.5 and OR for senior enlisted rank, 6.7; 95% CI, 0.8-54.9). Cross-validated area under the curve was 0.78. The 10% of respondents with highest estimated risk accounted for 39.2% of subsequent SAs.Conclusions and relevanceResults suggest the feasibility of developing a clinically useful risk index for SA among soldiers with SI using a small number of self-report questions. If implemented, a continuous quality improvement approach should be taken to refine the structured question series.

Project description:The US Army experienced a sharp increase in soldier suicides beginning in 2004. Administrative data reveal that among those at highest risk are soldiers in the 12 months after inpatient treatment of a psychiatric disorder.To develop an actuarial risk algorithm predicting suicide in the 12 months after US Army soldier inpatient treatment of a psychiatric disorder to target expanded posthospitalization care.There were 53,769 hospitalizations of active duty soldiers from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2009, with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification psychiatric admission diagnoses. Administrative data available before hospital discharge abstracted from a wide range of data systems (sociodemographic, US Army career, criminal justice, and medical or pharmacy) were used to predict suicides in the subsequent 12 months using machine learning methods (regression trees and penalized regressions) designed to evaluate cross-validated linear, nonlinear, and interactive predictive associations.Suicides of soldiers hospitalized with psychiatric disorders in the 12 months after hospital discharge.Sixty-eight soldiers died by suicide within 12 months of hospital discharge (12.0% of all US Army suicides), equivalent to 263.9 suicides per 100,000 person-years compared with 18.5 suicides per 100,000 person-years in the total US Army. The strongest predictors included sociodemographics (male sex [odds ratio (OR), 7.9; 95% CI, 1.9-32.6] and late age of enlistment [OR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.0-3.5]), criminal offenses (verbal violence [OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.0] and weapons possession [OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 1.7-18.3]), prior suicidality [OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.7-4.9], aspects of prior psychiatric inpatient and outpatient treatment (eg, number of antidepressant prescriptions filled in the past 12 months [OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7]), and disorders diagnosed during the focal hospitalizations (eg, nonaffective psychosis [OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.2-7.0]). A total of 52.9% of posthospitalization suicides occurred after the 5% of hospitalizations with highest predicted suicide risk (3824.1 suicides per 100,000 person-years). These highest-risk hospitalizations also accounted for significantly elevated proportions of several other adverse posthospitalization outcomes (unintentional injury deaths, suicide attempts, and subsequent hospitalizations).The high concentration of risk of suicide and other adverse outcomes might justify targeting expanded posthospitalization interventions to soldiers classified as having highest posthospitalization suicide risk, although final determination requires careful consideration of intervention costs, comparative effectiveness, and possible adverse effects.

Dataset Information

Pre-deployment predictors of suicide attempt during and after combat deployment: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers.

Publications

Pre-deployment predictors of suicide attempt during and after combat deployment: Results from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers.

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