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Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting Algorithms and Associated False Alarms.

ABSTRACT: Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are known to occur following solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, some high-energy solar events do not result in SEPs being detected at Earth, and it is these types of event which may be termed "false alarms". We define two simple SEP forecasting algorithms based upon the occurrence of a magnetically well-connected CME with a speed in excess of 1500kms-1 (a "fast" CME) or a well-connected X-class flare and analyse them with respect to historical datasets. We compare the parameters of those solar events which produced an enhancement of >40MeV protons at Earth (an "SEP event") and the parameters of false alarms. We find that an SEP forecasting algorithm based solely upon the occurrence of a well-connected fast CME produces fewer false alarms (28.8%) than an algorithm which is based solely upon a well-connected X-class flare (50.6%). Both algorithms fail to forecast a relatively high percentage of SEP events (53.2% and 50.6%, respectively). Our analysis of the historical datasets shows that false-alarm X-class flares were either not associated with any CME, or were associated with a CME slower than 500kms-1 ; false-alarm fast CMEs tended to be associated with flare classes lower than M3. A better approach to forecasting would be an algorithm which takes as its base the occurrence of both CMEs and flares. We define a new forecasting algorithm which uses a combination of CME and flare parameters, and we show that the false-alarm ratio is similar to that for the algorithm based upon fast CMEs (29.6%), but the percentage of SEP events not forecast is reduced to 32.4%. Lists of the solar events which gave rise to >40MeV protons and the false alarms have been derived and are made available to aid further study. Electronic Supplementary Material:The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11207-017-1196-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

SUBMITTER: Swalwell B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6953974 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Despite its widespread use in North America and many other parts of the world, the safety of etomidate as an induction agent for rapid sequence intubation in septic patients is still debated. In this article, we evaluate the current literature on etomidate, review its clinical history, and discuss the controversy regarding its use, especially in sepsis. We address eight questions: (i) When did concern over the safety of etomidate first arise? (ii) What is the mechanism by which etomidate is thought to affect the adrenal axis? (iii) How has adrenal insufficiency in relation to etomidate use been defined or identified in the literature? (iv) What is the evidence that single dose etomidate is associated with subsequent adrenal-cortisol dysfunction? (v) What is the clinical significance of adrenal insufficiency or dysfunction associated with single dose etomidate, and where are the data that support or refute the contention that single-dose etomidate is associated with increased mortality or important post emergency department (ED) clinical outcomes? (vi) How should etomidate's effects in septic patients best be measured? (vii) What are alternative induction agents and what are the advantages and disadvantages of these agents relative to etomidate? (viii) What future work is needed to further clarify the characteristics of etomidate as it is currently used in patients with sepsis? We conclude that the observational nature of almost all available data suggesting adverse outcomes from etomidate does not support abandoning its use for rapid sequence induction. However, because we see a need to balance theoretical harms and benefits in the presence of data supporting the non-inferiority of alternative agents without similar theoretical risks associated with them, we suggest that the burden of proof to support continued widespread use may rest with the proponents of etomidate. We further suggest that practitioners become familiar with the use of more than one agent while awaiting further definitive data.

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Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting Algorithms and Associated False Alarms.

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