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Survival and prognostic factors of patients with esophageal fistula in advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

ABSTRACT: The aim of the present study was to investigate the survival and prognostic factors of patients who were with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and developed an esophageal fistula. The data from 221 patients with advanced ESCC developed esophageal fistula from January 2008 to December 2017 at the Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital was retrospectively analyzed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by the Cox proportional hazard models. The median survival time after a diagnosis of the esophageal fistula was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. We found that the pathogens infected by patients are common bacteria in nosocomial infection. Besides, the incidence rate of esophagomediastinal fistula was the highest (54.2%) in the lower third of the esophagus. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a median survival time of 11.00 months and a median post-fistula survival time of 3.63 months in patients who developed esophageal fistula in advanced esophageal cancer. In the univariate analysis, gender, therapies for ESCC before the development of fistula, type of esophageal fistula, treatment of esophageal fistula and hemoglobin (Hb) level were the factors with significant prognostic value. Gender, type of esophageal fistula and Hb level were identified as independent prognostic factors in further multivariate analysis. In summary, our study demonstrated that several factors are significantly related to patients with esophageal fistula and should be concerned about in clinical practice.

SUBMITTER: Guan X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6960064 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Survival and prognostic factors of patients with esophageal fistula in advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Guan Xin X Liu Chao C Zhou Tianshuo T Ma Zhigang Z Zhang Chunhui C Wang Bojun B Yao Yang Y Fan Xiaona X Li Zhiwei Z Zhang Yanqiao Y

Bioscience reports 20200101 1

The aim of the present study was to investigate the survival and prognostic factors of patients who were with advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and developed an esophageal fistula. The data from 221 patients with advanced ESCC developed esophageal fistula from January 2008 to December 2017 at the Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital was retrospectively analyzed. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by the Cox proportional hazard models. The ...[more]

PMID: 31894852

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Project description:BackgroundThe nutritional status of cancer patients is a crucial factor in determining their prognosis. The objective of this study was to investigate and compare the prognostic value of pretreatment nutrition-related indicators in elderly esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Risk stratification was performed according to independent risk factors and a new nutritional prognostic index was constructed.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed 460 older locally advanced ESCC patients receiving definitive chemoradiotherapy (dCRT) or radiotherapy (dRT). This study included five pre- therapeutic nutrition-related indicators. The optimal cut-off values for these indices were calculated from the Receiver Operating Curve (ROC). Univariate and multivariate COX analyses were employed to determine the association between each indicator and clinical outcomes. The predictive ability of each independently nutrition-related prognostic indicator was assessed using the time-dependent ROC (time-ROC) and C-index.ResultsMultivariate analyses indicated that the geriatric nutrition risk index (GNRI), body mass index (BMI), the controlling nutritional status (CONUT) score, and platelet-albumin ratio (PAR) could independently predict overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in elderly patients with ESCC (all p < 0.05), except for prognostic nutritional index (PNI). Based on four independently nutrition-related prognostic indicators, we developed pre-therapeutic nutritional prognostic score (PTNPS) and new nutritional prognostic index (NNPI). No-risk (PTNPS = 0-1 point), moderate-risk (PTNPS = 2 points), and high-risk (PTNPS = 3-4 points) groups had 5-year OS rates of 42.3%, 22.9%, and 8.8%, respectively (p < 0.001), and 5-year PFS rates of 44.4%, 26.5%, and 11.3%, respectively (p < 0.001). The Kaplan-Meier curves showed that the mortality of elderly ESCC patients in the high-risk group was higher than that in the low-risk group according to the NNPI. Analysis of time-AUC and C-index revealed that the NNPI (C-index: 0.663) had the greatest predictive power on the prognosis in older ESCC patients.ConclusionsIn elderly ESCC patients, the GNRI, BMI, CONUT score, and PAR can be used as objective assessment measures for the risk of nutrition-related death. Compared to the other four indexes, the NNPI has the greatest prognostic value for prognosis, and elderly patients with a higher nutritional risk have a poor prognosis, which is helpful in guiding early clinical nutrition intervention.

Project description:BackgroundNaples prognostic score (NPS) serves as a new prognostic index based on nutritional and inflammatory status in recent years. The aim of the current study was to explore the prognostic effect of NPS and to develop and validate a reliable nomogram based on NPS for individual cancer-specific survival (CSS) prediction in patients with resected ESCC without neoadjuvant therapy.MethodsThe clinical data for 287 (Jan. 2010 to Jun. 2012, Training sets) and 118 (Jan. 2015 to Dec 2015, Validation sets) consecutive resected ESCC cases were retrospectively analyzed. Two NPS models based on the different cut-off values of parameters were compared. Cut-off values in model 1 were derived from previous published studies, while cut-off values in model 2 were obtained in this study based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The relationships between NPS and clinical characteristics and CSS were analyzed. The prediction model of nomogram was developed with independent prognostic factors in the training sets and was validated in the validation sets.ResultsThe 5-year CSS for NPS 0, 1 and 2 were 61.9%, 34.6% and 13.4% in model 1 and 75.0%, 42.4% and 13.0% in model 2, respectively (P<0.001). Subgroup analyses revealed that NPS was also significantly associated with CSS in both model 1 and model 2 in different TNM stages. Multivariate analyses revealed that NPS was an independent prognostic marker regarding CSS in patients with resected ESCC (P<0.001). A predictive nomogram based on NPS was established and validated. The C-indexes of the nomogram in the training sets and validation sets were 0.68 and 0.72 in model 1 and 0.69 and 0.73 in model 2, respectively. These results confirmed that NPS-based nomogram was a more accurate and effective tool for predicting CSS in patients with resected ESCC.ConclusionThe current study confirmed that NPS was still a useful independent prognostic score in patients with resected ESCC. The NPS-based nomogram was successfully developed and validated, which may contribute to individual CSS prediction for resected ESCC patients.

Project description:BackgroundThe literature regarding esophageal fistula after definitive concurrent chemotherapy and intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains lacking. We aimed to investigate the risk factors of esophageal fistula among ESCC patients undergoing definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) via IMRT technique.MethodsA total of 129 consecutive ESCC patients receiving definitive CCRT with IMRT between 2008 and 2018 were reviewed. The cumulative incidence of esophageal fistula and survival of patients were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared between groups by the log-rank test. The risk factors of esophageal fistula were determined with multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.ResultsMedian follow-up was 14.9 months (IQR, 7.0-28.8). Esophageal perforation was identified in 20 (15.5%) patients, resulting in esophago-pleural fistula in nine, esophago-tracheal fistula in seven, broncho-esophageal fistula in two, and aorto-esophageal fistula in two patients. The median interval from IMRT to the occurrence of esophageal fistula was 4.4 months (IQR, 3.3-10.1). Patients with esophageal fistula had an inferior median overall survival (10.0 vs. 17.2 months, p = 0.0096). T4 (HR, 3.776; 95% CI, 1.383-10.308; p = 0.010) and esophageal stenosis (HR, 2.601; 95% CI, 1.053-6.428; p = 0.038) at baseline were the independent risk factors for esophageal fistula. The cumulative incidence of esophageal fistula was higher in patients with T4 (p = 0.018) and pre-treatment esophageal stenosis (p = 0.045). There was a trend toward better survival after esophageal fistula among patients receiving repair or stenting for the fistula than those only undergoing conservative treatments (median survival, 5.9 vs. 0.9 months, p = 0.058).ConclusionsT4 and esophageal stenosis at baseline independently increased the risk of esophageal fistula in ESCC treated by definitive CCRT with IMRT. There existed a trend toward improved survival after the fistula among patients receiving repair or stenting for esophageal perforation.

Dataset Information

Survival and prognostic factors of patients with esophageal fistula in advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Publications

Survival and prognostic factors of patients with esophageal fistula in advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

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