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Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model.

ABSTRACT: Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.

SUBMITTER: Mihailovic DT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6961917 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMembers of the Anopheles hyrcanus group have been incriminated as important malaria vectors. This study aims to identify the species and explore the insecticide susceptibility profile within the Anopheles hyrcanus group in Ubon Ratchathani Province, northeastern Thailand where increasing numbers of malaria cases were reported in 2014.MethodsBetween 2013 and 2015, five rounds of mosquito collections were conducted using human landing and cattle bait techniques during both the rainy and dry seasons. Anopheles mosquitoes were morphologically identified and their insecticide susceptibility status was investigated. Synergist bioassays were carried out with An. hyrcanus (s.l.) due to their resistance to all insecticides. An ITS2-PCR assay was conducted to identify to species the Hyrcanus group specimens.ResultsOut of 10,361 Anopheles females collected, representing 18 taxa in 2 subgenera, 71.8% were morphologically identified as belonging to the Hyrcanus Group (subgenus Anopheles), followed by An. barbirostris group (7.9%), An. nivipes (6.5%), An. philippinensis (5.9%) and the other 14 Anopheles species. Specimens of the Hyrcanus Group were more prevalent during the rainy season and were found to be highly zoophilic. Anopheles hyrcanus (s.l.) was active throughout the night, with an early peak of activity between 18:00 h and 21:00 h. ITS2-PCR assay conducted on 603 DNA samples from specimens within the Hyrcanus Group showed the presence of five sisters species. Anopheles peditaeniatus was the most abundant species (90.5%, n = 546), followed by An. nitidus (4.5%, n = 27), An. nigerrimus (4.3%, n = 26), An. argyropus (0.5%, n = 3), and An. sinensis (0.2%, n = 1). All An. hyrcanus (s.l.) specimens that were found resistant to insecticides (deltamethrin 0.05%, permethrin 0.75% and DDT 4% and synergist tests) belonged to An. peditaeniatus. The degree of resistance in An. peditaeniatus to each of these three insecticides was approximately 50%. Addition of PBO (Piperonyl butoxide), but not DEF (S.S.S-tributyl phosphotritioate), seemed to restore susceptibility, indicating a potential role of oxidases as a detoxifying enzyme resistance mechanism.ConclusionsA better understanding of mosquito diversity related to host preference, biting activity and insecticide resistance status will facilitate the implementation of locally adapted vector control strategies.

Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently the biggest public health problem worldwide. Intensive international travel and tourism have greatly contributed to its rapid global spreading. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and clinical outcomes of the travel-associated COVID-19 cases in Vojvodina, Serbia, from March 6 to December 31, 2020 and it concerns permanent residents of Serbia. A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the dedicated surveillance database of the Institute of Public Health of Vojvodina. Overall, 650 travel-associated COVID-19 cases were recorded in Vojvodina during the observed period, mainly imported from Bosnia and Herzegovina, followed by Austria and Germany (N = 195, 30%; N = 79, 12.15% and N = 75, 11.54%, respectively). The majority of cases were in the working-age groups, 18-44 and 45-64 years (56.46% and 34.15%, respectively). Overall, 54 (8.31%) patients developed pneumonia. In comparison to patients without pneumonia, those with pneumonia were older (mean age = 55.39 years vs. 41.34 years, p<0.01) and had a higher percentage of comorbidities (57.41% vs. 16.61%). Men were more likely to develop pneumonia than women (OR = 2.22; 95% CI: 1.14-4.30, p = 0.02), as well as those in retired-age group (OR = 4.11; 95% CI: 2.0-8.46, p<0.01). Obesity (OR = 14.40; 95% CI: 3.8-54.6, p<0.01), diabetes (OR = 9.82; 95% CI: 3.15-30.61, p<0.01) and hypertension (OR = 7.99; 95% CI: 3.98-16.02, p<0.01) were the most prominent main comorbidities as predictors of pneumonia. Our results represent general epidemiological and clinical dynamics of COVID-19 disease in Vojvodina. Also, they provide evidence that the predictors of pneumonia were: increasing age, male sex, having underlying comorbidities, an increasing number of days from the return to laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03-1.12, p<0.01), as well as an increasing number of days from symptoms onset to diagnosis (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.07-1.21, p<0.01), while anosmia and ageusia were protective factors for developing it (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.12-0.79, p = 0.01).

Dataset Information

Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model.

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