Predictive validation and forecasts of short-term changes in healthcare expenditure associated with changes in smoking behavior in the United States.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Out-of-sample forecasts are used to evaluate the predictive adequacy of a previously published national model of the relationship between smoking behavior and real per capita health care expenditure using state level aggregate data. In the previously published analysis, the elasticities between changes in state adult current smoking prevalence and mean cigarette consumption per adult current smoker and healthcare expenditures were 0.118 and 0.108 This new analysis provides evidence that the model forecasts out-of-sample well. METHODS:Out-of-sample predictive performance was used to find the best specification of trend variables and the best model to bridge a break in survey data used in the analysis. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to calculate forecast intervals for the effect

SUBMITTER: Lightwood J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6964879 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature