Increase in global emissions of HFC-23 despite near-total expected reductions.

ABSTRACT: Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, new controls are being implemented to reduce emissions of HFC-23 (CHF[Formula: see text]), a by-product during the manufacture of HCFC-22 (CHClF[Formula: see text]). Starting in 2015, China and India, who dominate global HCFC-22 production (75% in 2017), set out ambitious programs to reduce HFC-23 emissions. Here, we estimate that these measures should have seen global emissions drop by 87% between 2014 and 2017. Instead, atmospheric observations show that emissions have increased and in 2018 were higher than at any point in history (15.9 [Formula: see text]). Given the magnitude of the discrepancy between expected and observation-inferred emissions, it is likely that the reported reductions have not fully materialized or there may be substantial unreported production of HCFC-22, resulting in unaccounted-for HFC-23 by-product emissions. The difference between reported and observation-inferred estimates suggests that an additional ~309 Tg [Formula: see text]-equivalent emissions were added to the atmosphere between 2015 and 2017.

SUBMITTER: Stanley KM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6972758 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature