Dataset Information

Decadal heat and drought drive body size of North American bison (Bison bison) along the Great Plains.

ABSTRACT: Large grazers are visible and valuable indicators of the effects of projected changes in temperature and drought on grasslands. The grasslands of the Great Plains have supported the greatest number of bison (Bison bison; Linnaeus, 1758) since prehistoric times. We tested the hypothesis that body mass (BM, kg) and asymptotic body mass (ABM, kg) of Bison decline with rising temperature and increasing drought over both temporal and spatial scales along the Great Plains. Temporally, we modeled the relationship of annual measures of BM and height (H, m) of 5,781 Bison at Wind Cave National Park (WICA) from 1966 to 2015. We used Gompertz equations of BM against age to estimate ABM in decadal cohorts; both females and males decreased from the 1960s to the 2010s. Male ABM was variable but consistently larger (699 vs. 441 kg) than female ABM. We used local mean decadal temperature (MDT) and local mean decadal Palmer Drought Severity Index (dPDSI) to model the effects of climate on ABM. Drought decreased ABM temporally (-16 kg/local dPDSI) at WICA. Spatially, we used photogrammetry to measure body height (HE ) of 773 Bison to estimate BME in 19 herds from Saskatchewan to Texas, including WICA. Drought also decreased ABM spatially (-16 kg/local dPDSI) along the Great Plains. Temperature decreased ABM both temporally at WICA (-115 kg/°C local MDT) and spatially (-1 kg/°C local MDT) along the Great Plains. Our data indicate that temperature and drought drive Bison ABM presumably by affecting seasonal mass gain. Bison body size is likely to decline over the next five decades throughout the Great Plains due to projected increases in temperatures and both the frequency and intensity of drought.

SUBMITTER: Martin JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6972834 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Decadal heat and drought drive body size of North American bison (Bison bison) along the Great Plains.

Martin Jeff M JM Barboza Perry S PS

Ecology and evolution 20191206 1

Large grazers are visible and valuable indicators of the effects of projected changes in temperature and drought on grasslands. The grasslands of the Great Plains have supported the greatest number of bison (Bison bison; Linnaeus, 1758) since prehistoric times. We tested the hypothesis that body mass (BM, kg) and asymptotic body mass (ABM, kg) of Bison decline with rising temperature and increasing drought over both temporal and spatial scales along the Great Plains. Temporally, we ...[more]

PMID: 31988731

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Project description:Machine learning techniques have to date not been widely used in population-environment research, but represent a promising tool for identifying relationships between environmental variables and population outcomes. They may be particularly useful for instances where the nature of the relationship is not obvious or not easily detected using other methods, or where the relationship potentially varies across spatial scales within a given study unit. Machine learning techniques may also help the researcher identify the relative strength of influence of specific variables within a larger set of interacting ones, and so provide a useful methodological approach for exploratory research. In this study, we use machine learning techniques in the form of random forest and regression tree analyses to look for possible connections between drought and rural population loss on the North American Great Plains between 1970 and 2020. In doing so, we analyzed four decades of population count data (at county-size spatial scales), monthly climate data, and Palmer Drought Severity Index scores for Canada and the USA at multiple spatial scales (regional, sub-regional, national, and county/census division levels), along with county level irrigation data. We found that in some parts of Saskatchewan and the Dakotas - particularly those areas that fall within more temperate/less arid ecological sub-regions - drought conditions in the middle years of the 1970s had a significant association with rural population losses. A similar but weaker association was identified in a small cluster of North Dakota counties in the 1990s. Our models detected few links between drought and rural population loss in other decades or in other parts of the Great Plains. Based on R-squared results, models for US portions of the Plains generally exhibited stronger drought-population loss associations than did Canadian portions, and temperate ecological sub-regions exhibited stronger associations than did more arid sub-regions. Irrigation rates showed no significant influence on population loss. This article focuses on describing the methodological steps, considerations, and benefits of employing this type of machine learning approach to investigating connections between drought and rural population change.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11111-022-00399-9.

Project description:During the late nineteenth century North American bison underwent a significant population bottleneck resulting in a reduction in population size of over 99% and a species-level near-extinction event. Factors responsible for this destruction included indiscriminate killing, loss of access to suitable habitat, and diseases. At the nadir of this population crash, very few wild plains bison survived and were restricted to Yellowstone National Park, USA and a small number of wild wood bison remained in Wood Buffalo National Park, Canada. However, most surviving bison in the late 1800's were maintained by cattle ranchers in private herds where hybridization between bison with various breeds of domestic cattle was often encouraged. Over the last 20 years, the legacy of this introgression has been identified using mitochondrial DNA and limited nuclear microsatellite analyses. However, no genome-wide assessment has been performed, and some herds were believed to be free of introgression based on current genetic testing strategies. Herein, we report detailed analyses using whole genome sequencing from nineteen modern and six historical bison, chosen to represent the major lineages of bison, to identify and quantitate signatures of nuclear introgression in their recent (within 200 years) history. Both low and high coverage genomes provided evidence for recent introgression, including animals from Yellowstone, Wind Cave, and Elk Island National Parks which were previously thought to be free from hybridization with domestic cattle. We employed multiple approaches, including one developed for this work, to identify putative cattle haplotypes in each bison genome. These regions vary greatly in size and frequency by sample and herd, though we detected domestic cattle introgression in all bison genomes tested. Since our sampling strategy spanned across the diversity of modern bison populations, these finding are best explained by multiple historical hybridization events between these two species with significant genetic recombination over the last 200 years. Our results demonstrate that whole genome sequencing approaches are required to accurately quantitate cattle introgression in bison.

Dataset Information

Decadal heat and drought drive body size of North American bison (Bison bison) along the Great Plains.

Publications

Decadal heat and drought drive body size of North American bison (<i>Bison bison</i>) along the Great Plains.

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