Dataset Information

Predicting Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence and Stroke Outcomes While Withholding Antiplatelet and Anticoagulant Agents.

ABSTRACT: Introduction: The aging of the western population and the increased use of oral anticoagulation (OAC) and antiplatelet drugs (APD) will result in a clinical dilemma on how to balance the recurrence risk of chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) with the risk of withholding blood thinners. Objective: To identify features that predicts recurrence, thromboembolism (TEE), hospital stay and mortality. To identify the optimal window for resuming APD or OAC. Methods: We performed a retrospective multivariate analysis of a prospectively collected database. We then build machine learning models for outcomes prediction. Results: We identified 596 patients. The rate of recurrence was 22.17%, that of thromboembolism was 0.9% and that of mortality was 14.78%. Smoking, platelet dysfunction, CKD, and alcohol use were independent predictors of higher recurrence, while resolution of the SDH was protective. OAC use had higher odds of developing TEEs. CKD, developing a new neurological deficit or a TEEs were independent predictors of higher mortality. We find the optimal time of resuming OAC to be after 2 days but before 21 days as these patients had the lowest recurrence of bleeding associated with a low risk of stroke. The ML model achieved an accuracy of 93, precision of 0.84 and recall of 0.80 for recurrence prediction. ML models for hospital stay performed poorly (R 2 = 0.33). ML model for stroke was overfitted given the low number of events. Conclusion: ML modeling is feasible. However, large well-designed prospective multicenter studies are needed for accurate ML so that clinicians can balance the risks of recurrence with the risk of TEEs, especially for high-risk anticoagulated patients.

SUBMITTER: Zanaty M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6974672 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence and Stroke Outcomes While Withholding Antiplatelet and Anticoagulant Agents.

Zanaty Mario M Park Brian J BJ Seaman Scott C SC Cliffton William E WE Woodiwiss Timothy T Piscopo Anthony A Howard Matthew A MA Abode-Iyamah Kingsley K

Frontiers in neurology 20200115

Introduction: The aging of the western population and the increased use of oral anticoagulation (OAC) and antiplatelet drugs (APD) will result in a clinical dilemma on how to balance the recurrence risk of chronic subdural hematoma (cSDH) with the risk of withholding blood thinners. Objective: To identify features that predicts recurrence, thromboembolism (TEE), hospital stay and mortality. To identify the optimal window for resuming APD or OAC. Methods: We performed a retro ...[more]

PMID: 32010052

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Project description:BackgroundSeveral prognostic models for outcomes after chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) treatment have been published in recent years. However, these models are not sufficiently validated for use in daily clinical practice. We aimed to assess the performance of existing prediction models for outcomes in patients diagnosed with CSDH.MethodsWe systematically searched relevant literature databases up to February 2021 to identify prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients diagnosed with CSDH. For the external validation of prognostic models, we used a retrospective database, containing data of 2384 patients from three Dutch regions. Prognostic models were included if they predicted either mortality, hematoma recurrence, functional outcome, or quality of life. Models were excluded when predictors were absent in our database or available for < 150 patients in our database. We assessed calibration, and discrimination (quantified by the concordance index C) of the included prognostic models in our retrospective database.ResultsWe identified 1680 original publications of which 1656 were excluded based on title or abstract, mostly because they did not concern CSDH or did not define a prognostic model. Out of 18 identified models, three could be externally validated in our retrospective database: a model for 30-day mortality in 1656 patients, a model for 2 months, and another for 3-month hematoma recurrence both in 1733 patients. The models overestimated the proportion of patients with these outcomes by 11% (15% predicted vs. 4% observed), 1% (10% vs. 9%), and 2% (11% vs. 9%), respectively. Their discriminative ability was poor to modest (C of 0.70 [0.63-0.77]; 0.46 [0.35-0.56]; 0.59 [0.51-0.66], respectively).ConclusionsNone of the examined models showed good predictive performance for outcomes after CSDH treatment in our dataset. This study confirms the difficulty in predicting outcomes after CSDH and emphasizes the heterogeneity of CSDH patients. The importance of developing high-quality models by using unified predictors and relevant outcome measures and appropriate modeling strategies is warranted.

Project description:Objective Although liver diseases have already been identified as a risk factor for increased recurrence and mortality in patients with chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), the association between subclinical liver disease, specifically liver fibrosis (LF), and CSDH remains unknown. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the association between the LF scores and CSDH recurrence. Methods We retrospectively analyzed consecutive patients with CSDH who underwent burr-hole irrigation in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University between January 2015 and December 2018. The clinical data were collected, and the LF scores were calculated including aspartate aminotransferase–platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and Forns index. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to identify the association between the LF scores and CSDH recurrence, and Cox regression model and Fine–Gray competing risks model were performed to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for CSDH recurrence based on time-to-event outcomes. The C-statistic, the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) evaluated the additive value of the LF scores to predict the recurrence of CSDH. Results A total of 419 patients with CSDH were included, hematoma recurrence was observed in 62 patients (14.80%) within 1 year after surgery. The LF scores were significantly higher in those who recurred, whereas the standard hepatic assays were mostly normal. The patients were assigned to groups of high and low LF scores based on the validated cut-offs; compared with the subjects with low scores, those with high score levels had significantly higher recurrence rates. After adjusting for potential confounders, the LF scores were independently associated with CSDH recurrence, multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CI) for those with higher levels of APRI, FIB-4, and Forns score were 4.32 (1.37–13.60), 2.56 (1.20–5.43), and 2.02 (1.07–3.79) for the recurrence of CSDH, respectively. Moreover, adding the APRI to the conventional model improved the C-statistic from 0.731 to 0.763, with an NRI and IDI of 7.50 and 1.35%, respectively. Two further commonly-used LF score indices (FIB-4 score and Forns index) yielded comparable results. Conclusions The data from this study first indicated that the high LF scores were significantly associated with the recurrence of CSDH and that careful follow-up in these patients may be needed.

Project description:Chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is a common type of intracranial hemorrhage in neurosurgical practice, whose incidence has increased markedly in recent years. However, CSDH still troubles clinicians with a high postoperative recurrence rate. The presence of eosinophils has been confirmed in some CSDH surgical specimens. Furthermore, postoperative residual hematoma has not been classified, and its association with the recurrence of CSDH remains unknown. The present study aimed to test the hypothesis that the peripheral blood eosinophils and the classification of postoperative residual hematoma are significant for the prediction of CSDH recurrence after burr-hole surgery. A retrospective review of 258 CSDH patients who received burr-hole surgery was performed. A complete blood picture with differential count was taken before surgery. Clinical, laboratory, and radiographic factors predicting CSDH recurrence were identified in univariable and multivariable analyses. Univariable analysis showed that the percentage of eosinophils, peripheral blood eosinophil count <0.15 × 109/L, gradation and separated types, postoperative volume of the residual cavity ≥70 ml, residual air volume ≥28 ml, residual hematoma volume ≥55 ml, residual hematoma width ≥1.4 cm, postoperative midline shift ≥5.6 mm, postoperative brain re-expansion rate <41%, postoperative low-density type, and postoperative high-density type correlated with the recurrence of CSDH. Multivariable analysis, however, showed that peripheral blood eosinophil count <0.15 × 109/L, gradation and separated types, preoperative midline shift ≥9.5 mm, postoperative brain re-expansion rate <41%, postoperative low-density type, and postoperative high-density type are independent predictors for the recurrence of CSDH. We expect that peripheral blood eosinophils and the classification of postoperative residual hematoma may facilitate our understanding of the recurrence of CSDH after initial surgery.

Project description:Background: Several pharmacological treatments have been used to treat patients with chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH), although little is known about the comparative effectiveness of different classes of medication. We performed a Bayesian network meta-analysis to compare and rank the efficacy and safety of five drug regimens to determine the best treatment for this group of patients. Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, Medline, clinicaltrials.gov, the Cochrane database, and Embase to identify relevant randomized clinical trials (RCTs) comparing drug treatments in adult patients with CSDH. A network meta-analysis was conducted using a Bayesian framework. Random- and fixed-effects models were used to pool the network results, and the preferred model was selected by comparing the deviance information criteria (DIC). Efficacy outcomes included recurrence requiring surgery, changes in hematoma volume, and a good recovery. The safety outcomes were treatment-related adverse events and all-cause mortality. Results: In this Bayesian network meta-analysis, available data were obtained from 12 eligible trials, including 2,098 patients and 5 techniques. Compared to placebo, atorvastatin (RR: 0.45, 95% CrI: 0.24-0.81) and dexamethasone (RR: 0.38, 95% CrI: 0.22-0.63) were similarly effective in reducing recurrence requiring surgery by 55% and 62%, respectively. Dexamethasone (RR: 0.46, 95% CrI: 0.23-0.91) was more effective in reducing recurrence requiring surgery than goreisan. Additionally, atorvastatin reduced the hematoma volume to a greater extent than placebo (MD: -7.44, 95% CrI: -9.49 to -5.43) or goreisan (MD: -14.09, 95% CrI: -23.35 to -4.82). Moreover, tranexamic acid (MD: -12.07, 95% CrI: -21.68 to -2.29) reduced the hematoma volume to a greater extent than goreisan. No significant differences were detected between drugs and placebo with regard to a good recovery. In terms of safety, dexamethasone (RR: 1.96, 95% CrI: 1.20-3.28) increased the risk of mortality compared to placebo. Conclusion: These findings suggest that dexamethasone is the best treatment to reduce recurrence and atorvastatin is the best treatment to reduce hematoma volume in patients with CSDH. However, clinicians should pay close attention to the elevated risk of all-cause mortality and potential adverse events caused by dexamethasone. Future well-designed RCTs with more participants are needed to verify these findings. Clinical Trial Registration: http://osf.io/u9hqp.

Dataset Information

Predicting Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence and Stroke Outcomes While Withholding Antiplatelet and Anticoagulant Agents.

Publications

Predicting Chronic Subdural Hematoma Recurrence and Stroke Outcomes While Withholding Antiplatelet and Anticoagulant Agents.

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