Dataset Information

Modelling the spread and control of Xylella fastidiosa in the early stages of invasion in Apulia, Italy.

ABSTRACT: Xylella fastidiosa is an important plant pathogen that attacks several plants of economic importance. Once restricted to the Americas, the bacterium, which causes olive quick decline syndrome, was discovered near Lecce, Italy in 2013. Since the initial outbreak, it has invaded 23,000 ha of olives in the Apulian Region, southern Italy, and is of great concern throughout Mediterranean basin. Therefore, predicting its spread and estimating the efficacy of control are of utmost importance. As data on this invasive infectious disease are poor, we have developed a spatially-explicit simulation model for X. fastidiosa to provide guidance for predicting spread in the early stages of invasion and inform management strategies. The model qualitatively and quantitatively predicts the patterns of spread. We model control zones currently employed in Apulia, showing that increasing buffer widths decrease infection risk beyond the control zone, but this may not halt the spread completely due to stochastic long-distance jumps caused by vector dispersal. Therefore, management practices should aim to reduce vector long-distance dispersal. We find optimal control scenarios that minimise control effort while reducing X. fastidiosa spread maximally-suggesting that increasing buffer zone widths should be favoured over surveillance efforts as control budgets increase. Our model highlights the importance of non-olive hosts which increase the spread rate of the disease and may lead to an order of magnitude increase in risk. Many aspects of X. fastidiosa disease invasion remain uncertain and hinder forecasting; we recommend future studies investigating quantification of the infection growth rate, and short and long distance dispersal.

SUBMITTER: White SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6979717 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the spread and control of <i>Xylella fastidiosa</i> in the early stages of invasion in Apulia, Italy.

White Steven M SM Bullock James M JM Hooftman Danny A P DAP Chapman Daniel S DS

Biol Invasions. 20170221 6

<i>Xylella fastidiosa</i> is an important plant pathogen that attacks several plants of economic importance. Once restricted to the Americas, the bacterium, which causes olive quick decline syndrome, was discovered near Lecce, Italy in 2013. Since the initial outbreak, it has invaded 23,000 ha of olives in the Apulian Region, southern Italy, and is of great concern throughout Mediterranean basin. Therefore, predicting its spread and estimating the efficacy of control are of utmost importance. As ...[more]

PMID: 32025190

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Project description:The plant-pathogenic bacterium Xylella fastidiosa was first reported in Europe in 2013, in the province of Lecce, Italy, where extensive areas were affected by the olive quick decline syndrome, caused by the subsp. pauca. In Alicante, Spain, almond leaf scorch, caused by X. fastidiosa subsp. multiplex, was detected in 2017. The effects of climatic and spatial factors on the geographic distribution of X. fastidiosa in these two infested regions in Europe were studied. The presence/absence data of X. fastidiosa in the official surveys were analyzed using Bayesian hierarchical models through the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) methodology. Climatic covariates were obtained from the WorldClim v.2 database. A categorical variable was also included according to Purcell's minimum winter temperature thresholds for the risk of occurrence of Pierce's disease of grapevine, caused by X. fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa. In Alicante, data were presented aggregated on a 1 km grid (lattice data), where the spatial effect was included in the model through a conditional autoregressive structure. In Lecce, data were observed at continuous locations occurring within a defined spatial domain (geostatistical data). Therefore, the spatial effect was included via the stochastic partial differential equation approach. In Alicante, the pathogen was detected in all four of Purcell's categories, illustrating the environmental plasticity of the subsp. multiplex. Here, none of the climatic covariates were retained in the selected model. Only two of Purcell's categories were represented in Lecce. The mean diurnal range (bio2) and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio8) were retained in the selected model, with a negative relationship with the presence of the pathogen. However, this may be due to the heterogeneous sampling distribution having a confounding effect with the climatic covariates. In both regions, the spatial structure had a strong influence on the models, but not the climatic covariates. Therefore, pathogen distribution was largely defined by the spatial relationship between geographic locations. This substantial contribution of the spatial effect in the models might indicate that the current extent of X. fastidiosa in the study regions had arisen from a single focus or from several foci, which have been coalesced.

Dataset Information

Modelling the spread and control of Xylella fastidiosa in the early stages of invasion in Apulia, Italy.

Publications

Modelling the spread and control of <i>Xylella fastidiosa</i> in the early stages of invasion in Apulia, Italy.

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