Dataset Information

Predicting the long-term impact of voluntary medical male circumcision on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT: Using a deterministic compartmental modeling procedure to fit prevalence from 2005-2015, we projected new HIV cases during 2016-2026 under different coverage rates ranging from 0.0001 (at baseline) to 0.15 (an optimistic assumption) with simulations on varying transmission rates, model calibration to match historical data, and sensitivity analyses for different assumptions. Compared with the baseline (??=?0.0001), we found the new HIV cases would reduce with the increase of coverage rates of the voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among men who have sex wtih men (MSM). The higher the coverage rate, the lower the new HIV incidence would be. As one of the first studies to model the potential impact of VMMC among MSM in China, our model suggested a modest to the significant public health impact of VMMC. Even at just 15% VMMC annual uptake rate, the reduction in new infections is substantial. Therefore, there is a strong need to determine the efficacy of VMMC among MSM, to improve the evidence base for its potential use among MSM in low circumcision settings. Only then can policymakers decide whether to incorporate VMMC into a package of HIV prevention interventions targeting MSM.

SUBMITTER: Zhang C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6981072 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Predicting the long-term impact of voluntary medical male circumcision on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.

Zhang Chen C Webb Glenn F GF Lou Jie J Shepherd Brian E BE Qian Han-Zhu HZ Liu Yu Y Vermund Sten H SH

AIDS care 20191016 3

Using a deterministic compartmental modeling procedure to fit prevalence from 2005-2015, we projected new HIV cases during 2016-2026 under different coverage rates ranging from 0.0001 (at baseline) to 0.15 (an optimistic assumption) with simulations on varying transmission rates, model calibration to match historical data, and sensitivity analyses for different assumptions. Compared with the baseline (<i>λ</i> = 0.0001), we found the new HIV cases would reduce with the increase of coverage rates ...[more]

PMID: 31619058

Similar Datasets

Project description:Voluntary Medical Male circumcision (VMMC) is an evidence-based, yet under-utilized biomedical HIV intervention in China. No study has investigated acceptability of VMMC among male sexually transmitted diseases patients (MSTDP) who are at high risk of HIV transmission. A cross-sectional survey interviewed 350 HIV negative heterosexual MSTDP in Shenzhen, China; 12.0% (n = 42) of them were circumcised at the time of survey. When the uncircumcised participants (n = 308) were informed that VMMC could reduce the risk of HIV infection via heterosexual intercourse by 50%, the prevalence of acceptability of VMMC in the next six months was 46.1%. Adjusted for significant background variables, significant factors of acceptability of VMMC included: 1) emotional variables: the Emotional Representation Subscale (adjusted odds ratios, AOR = 1.13, 95%CI: 1.06-1.18), 2) cognitive variables derived from Health Belief Model (HBM): perceived some chance of having sex with HIV positive women in the next 12 months (AOR = 2.48, 95%CI: 1.15-5.33) (perceived susceptibility), perceived severity of STD infection (AOR = 1.06, 95%CI: 1.02-1.10), perceived benefit of VMMC in risk reduction (AOR = 1.29, 95%CI: 1.16-1.42) and sexual performance (AOR = 1.45, 95%CI: 1.26-1.71), perceived barriers against taking up VMMC (AOR = 0.88, 95%CI: 0.81-0.95), and perceived cue to action (AOR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.23-1.61) and self-efficacy (AOR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.26-1.35) related to taking up VMMC. The association between perceived severity of STD infection and acceptability was fully mediated by emotional representation of STD infection. The relatively low prevalence of circumcision and high acceptability suggested that the situation was favorable for implementing VMMC as a means of HIV intervention among MSTDP in China. HBM is a potential suitable framework to guide the design of future VMMC promotion. Future implementation programs should be conducted in STD clinic settings, taking the important findings of this study into account.

Project description:As an HIV prevention strategy, the scale-up of voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) is underway in 14 countries in Africa. For prevention impact, these countries must perform millions of circumcisions in adolescent and adult men before 2015. Although acceptability of VMMC in the region is well documented and service delivery efforts have proven successful, countries remain behind in meeting circumcision targets. A better understanding of men's VMMC-seeking behaviors and experiences is needed to improve communication and interventions to accelerate uptake. To this end, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 40 clients waiting for surgical circumcision at clinics in Zambia. Based on Stages of Change behavioral theory, men were asked to recount how they learned about adult circumcision, why they decided it was right for them, what they feared most, how they overcame their fears, and the steps they took to make it to the clinic that day. Thematic analysis across all cases allowed us to identify key behavior change triggers while within-case analysis elucidated variants of one predominant behavior change pattern. Major stages included: awareness and critical belief adjustment, norming pressures and personalization of advantages, a period of fear management and finally VMMC-seeking. Qualitative comparative analysis of ever-married and never-married men revealed important similarities and differences between the two groups. Unprompted, 17 of the men described one to four failed prior attempts to become circumcised. Experienced more frequently by older men, failed VMMC attempts were often due to service-side barriers. Findings highlight intervention opportunities to increase VMMC uptake. Reaching uncircumcised men via close male friends and female sex partners and tailoring messages to stage-specific concerns and needs would help accelerate men's movement through the behavior change process. Expanding service access is also needed to meet current demand. Improving clinic efficiencies and introducing time-saving procedures and advance scheduling options should be considered.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) is one of the strategies being promoted to prevent sexual heterosexual transmission of HIV. It has been adopted by 14 countries with high HIV prevalence and low circumcision rates. The 60.0% protective efficacy of VMMC has come with misconceptions in some societies in Malawi, hence VMMC clients may opt for risky sexual practices owing to its perceived protective effect. The study estimated proportion of circumcised men engaging in risky sexual behaviors post-VMMC, assessed knowledge on VMMC protective effect and identified socio-demographic factors associated with risky sexual practices. METHOD:A cross sectional study was conducted at two sites of Mzuzu city. Systematic random sampling was used to select 322 participants aged 18-49 who had undergone VMMC. The independent variables included age, location, occupation, religion, marital status and education. Outcome variables were non condom use, having multiple sexual partners and engaging in transactional sex. Data from questionnaires was analyzed using Pearson's chi square test and logistic regression. RESULTS:Out of 322 respondents, 84.8% (273) understood the partial protection offered by VMMC in HIV prevention. Ninety-six percent of the participants self-reported continued use of condoms post VMMC. Overall 23.7-38.3% participants self-reported engaging in risky sexual practices post VMMC, 23.7% (76) had more than one sexual partner; 29.2% (94) paid for sex while 39.9% (n?=?187) did not use a condom. Residing in high density areas was associated with non-condom use, (p?=?0.043). Being single (p?<?0.001), and residing in low density areas (p?=?0.004) was associated with engaging in transactional sex. CONCLUSION:Risky sexual practices are evident among participants that have undergone VMMC. Messages on safer sexual practices and limitations of VMMC need to be emphasized to clients, especially unmarried or single and those residing in low density areas.

Project description:BackgroundThe voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program in Mozambique aimed to increase male circumcision (MC) coverage to 80 percent among males ages 10 to 49 by 2018. Given the difficulty in attracting adult men over age 20 for circumcision, Mozambique became interested in assessing its age-targeting strategy and progress at the provincial level to inform program planning.MethodsWe examined the impact and cost-effectiveness of circumcising different age groups of men using the Decision Makers' Program Planning Toolkit, Version 2.1 (DMPPT 2). We also applied the model to assess the scale-up efforts through the end of September 2017 and project their impact on HIV incidence through 2030. The DMPPT 2 is a compartmental Excel-based model that analyzes the effects of age at circumcision on program impact and cost-effectiveness. The model tracks changes in age-specific MC coverage due to VMMC program circumcisions. Baseline MC prevalence was based on data from the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey. The DMPPT 2 was populated with HIV incidence projections from Spectrum/Goals under an assumption that Mozambique would reach its national targets for HIV treatment and prevention by 2022.ResultsWe estimate the VMMC program increased MC coverage among males ages 10 to 49 from 27 percent in 2009 to 48 percent by end of September 2017. Coverage increased primarily in males ages 10 to 29. VMMCs conducted in the national program through the end of September 2017 are projected to avert 67,076 HIV infections from 2010 to 2030. Scaling up circumcisions in males ages 20 to 29 will have the most immediate impact on HIV incidence, while the greatest impact over a 15-year period is obtained by circumcising males ages 15 to 24 in the majority of priority provinces. Circumcising 80 percent of males ages 10 to 29 can achieve 77 percent of the impact through 2030 compared with circumcising 80 percent of males ages 10 to 49.ConclusionThe VMMC program in Mozambique has made great strides in increasing MC coverage, particularly for males ages 10 to 29. Scaling up and maintaining MC coverage in this age group offers an attainable and cost-effective target for VMMC in Mozambique.

Dataset Information

Predicting the long-term impact of voluntary medical male circumcision on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.

Publications

Predicting the long-term impact of voluntary medical male circumcision on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets