Dataset Information

Impacts of climate variability and adaptation strategies on crop yields and soil organic carbon in the US Midwest.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of drought and more extreme precipitation events. The objectives of this study were i) to assess the impact of extended drought followed by heavy precipitation events on yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) under historical and future climate, and ii) to evaluate the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies (no-tillage and new cultivars) in mitigating impacts of increased frequencies of extreme events and warming. We used the validated SALUS crop model to simulate long-term maize and wheat yield and SOC changes of maize-soybean-wheat rotation cropping systems in the northern Midwest USA under conventional tillage and no-till for three climate change scenarios (one historical and two projected climates under the Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 and RCP6) and two precipitation changes (extreme precipitation occurring early or late season). Extended drought events caused additional yield reduction when they occurred later in the season (10-22% for maize and 5-13% for wheat) rather than in early season (5-17% for maize and 2-18% for wheat). We found maize grain yield declined under the projected climates, whereas wheat grain yield increased. No-tillage is able to reduce yield loss compared to conventional tillage and increased SOC levels (1.4-2.0 t/ha under the three climates), but could not reverse the adverse impact of climate change, unless early and new improved maize cultivars are introduced to increase yield and SOC under climate change. This study demonstrated the need to consider extreme weather events, particularly drought and extreme precipitation events, in climate impact assessment on crop yield and adaptation through no-tillage and new genetics reduces yield losses.

SUBMITTER: Liu L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6986752 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Impacts of climate variability and adaptation strategies on crop yields and soil organic carbon in the US Midwest.

Liu Lin L Basso Bruno B

PloS one 20200128 1

Climate change is likely to increase the frequency of drought and more extreme precipitation events. The objectives of this study were i) to assess the impact of extended drought followed by heavy precipitation events on yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) under historical and future climate, and ii) to evaluate the effectiveness of climate adaptation strategies (no-tillage and new cultivars) in mitigating impacts of increased frequencies of extreme events and warming. We used the validated SALU ...[more]

PMID: 31990907

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Project description:In this study, we assessed the possible impacts of climate variability and change on growth and performance of maize using multi-climate, multi-crop model approaches built on Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols in five different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Embu County in Kenya and under different management systems. Adaptation strategies were developed that are locally relevant by identifying a set of technologies that help to offset potential impacts of climate change on maize yields. Impacts and adaptation options were evaluated using projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Two widely used crop simulation models, Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on maize. Results showed that 20 CMIP5 models are consistent in their projections of increased surface temperatures with different magnitude. Projections by HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC-ESM tend to be higher than the rest of 17 CMIP5 climate models under both emission scenarios. The projected increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) which ranged between 2.7 and 5.8°C is higher than the increase in maximum temperature (Tmax) that varied between 2.2 and 4.8°C by end century under RCP 8.5. Future projections in rainfall are less certain with high variability projections by GFDL-ESM2G, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M suggest 8 to 25% decline in rainfall, while CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR and BNU-ESM suggested more than 85% increase in rainfall under RCP 8.5 by end of 21st century. Impacts of current and future climatic conditions on maize yields varied depending on the AEZs, soil type, crop management and climate change scenario. Impacts are largely negative in the low potential AEZs such as Lower Midlands (LM4 and LM5) compared with the high potential AEZs Upper Midlands (UM2 and UM3). However, impacts of climate change are largely positive across all AEZs and management conditions when CO2 fertilization is included. Using the differential impacts of climate change, a strategy to adapt maize cultivation to climate change in all the five AEZs was identified by consolidating those practices that contributed to increased yields under climate change. We consider this approach as more appropriate to identify operational adaptation strategies using readily available technologies that contribute positively under both current and future climatic conditions. This approach when adopted in strategic manner will also contribute to further strengthen the development of adaptation strategies at national and local levels. The methods and tools validated and applied in this assessment allowed estimating possible impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies which can provide valuable insights and guidance for adaptation planning.

Project description:Attaining high crop yields and increasing carbon storage in agricultural soils, while avoiding negative environmental impacts on water quality, soil erosion, and biodiversity, requires accurate and precise management of crop inputs and management practices. The long-term analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of crop yields provides insights on how yields vary in a field, with parts of field constantly producing either high yields or low yields and other parts that fluctuate from one year to the next. The concept of yield stability has shown to be informative on how plants translate the effects of environmental conditions (e.g., soil, climate, topography) across the field and over the years in the final yield, and as a valuable layer in developing prescription maps of variable fertilizer rate inputs. Using known relationships between soil health and crop yields, we hypothesize that areas with measured constantly low yield will return low carbon to the soil affecting its heath. On this premises, yield stability zones (YSZ) provide an effective and practical integrative measure of the small-scale variability of soil health on a field relative basis. We tested this hypothesis by measuring various metrics of soil health from commercial farmers' fields in the north central Midwest of the USA in samples replicated across YSZ, using a soil test suite commonly used by producers and stakeholders active in agricultural carbon credits markets. We found that the use of YSZ allowed us to successfully partition field-relative soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil health metrics into statistically distinct regions. Low and stable (LS) yield zones were statistically lower in normalized SOC when compared to high and stable (HS) and unstable (US) yield zones. The drivers of the yield differences within a field are a series of factors ranging from climate, topography and soil. LS zones occur in areas of compacted soil layers or shallow soils (edge of the field) on steeper slopes. The US zones occurring with high water flow accumulation, were more dependent on topography and rainfall. The differences in the components of the overall soil health score (SHS) between these YSZ increased with sample depth suggesting a deeper topsoil in the US and HS zones, driven by the accumulation of water, nutrients, and carbon downslope. Comparison of the field management provided initial evidence that zero tillage reduces the magnitude of the variance in SOC and soil health metrics between the YSZ.

Project description:In order to increase crop yield in semi-arid and arid areas, plastic film mulching (PFM) is widely used in Northwestern China. To date, many studies have addressed the effects of PFM on soil physical and biochemical properties in rain-fed agriculture in Northwestern China, but the findings of different studies are often contradictory. Therefore, a comprehensive review of the impacts of PFM on soil water content, soil nutrients and food production is needed. We compiled the results of 1278 observations to evaluate the overall effects of PFM on soil water content, the distribution of nitrate and soil organic carbon, and crop yield in rain-fed agriculture in Northwestern China. Our results showed that PFM increased soil moisture and nitrate concentration in topsoils (0-20 cm) by 12.9% and 28.2%, respectively, but slightly decreased (1.8%) soil organic carbon (SOC) content in the 0-10 cm soil layer. PFM significantly increased grain yields by 43.1%, with greatest effect in spring maize (79.4%). When related to cumulative precipitation during the crop growing season, yield increase from PFM was greatest (72.8%) at 200-300 mm, which was attributed to the large increase for spring maize and potato, implying that crop zoning would be beneficial for PFM in this region. When related to N application rate, crop yields benefited most from PFM (80.2%) at 200-300 kg/ha. A cost-benefit analysis indicated that PFM increased economic return by an average of 29.5%, with the best improvement for spring maize (71.1%) and no increase for spring wheat. In conclusion, PFM can significantly increase crop yield and economic return (especially for spring maize) in rain-fed agriculture areas of Northwestern China. Crop zoning is recommended for PFM to achieve the largest economic benefit. However, full account needs to be taken of the environmental impacts relating to N loss, SOC depletion and film pollution to evaluate the sustainability of PFM systems and further research is required to quantify and mitigate these impacts.

Project description:BackgroundThe importance of organic farming has increased through the years to promote food security allied with minimal harm to the ecosystem. Besides the environmental benefits, a recurring problem associated with organic management is the unsatisfactory yield. A possible solution may rely on the soil microbiome, which presents a crucial role in the soil system. Here, we aimed to evaluate the soil bacterial community structure and composition under organic and conventional farming, considering the tropical climate and tropical soil.MethodologyOur organic management treatments were composed by composted poultry manure and green manure with Bokashi. Both organic treatments were based on low nitrogen inputs. We evaluated the soil bacterial community composition by high-throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA genes, soil fertility, and soil enzyme activity in two organic farming systems, one conventional and the last transitional from conventional to organic.ResultsWe observed that both organic systems evaluated in this study, have higher yield than the conventional treatment, even in a year with drought conditions. These yield results are highly correlated with changes in soil chemical properties and enzymatic activity. The attributes pH, Ca, P, alkaline phosphatase, and β- glucosidase activity are positively correlated with organic systems, while K and Al are correlated with conventional treatment. Also, our results show in the organic systems the changes in the soil bacteria community, being phyla Acidobacteria, Firmicutes, Nitrospirae, and Rokubacteria the most abundant. These phyla were correlated with soil biochemical changes in the organic systems, helping to increase crop yields.ConclusionDifferent organic management systems, (the so-called natural and organic management systems, which use distinct organic sources), shift the soil bacterial community composition, implying changes in their functionalities. Also, our results contributed to the identification of target bacterial groups and changes in soil chemical properties and enzymatic activity in a trophic organic farming system, which may contribute to higher crop yields.

Dataset Information

Impacts of climate variability and adaptation strategies on crop yields and soil organic carbon in the US Midwest.

Publications

Impacts of climate variability and adaptation strategies on crop yields and soil organic carbon in the US Midwest.

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