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The effects of corrective information about disease epidemics and outbreaks: Evidence from Zika and yellow fever in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: Disease epidemics and outbreaks often generate conspiracy theories and misperceptions that mislead people about the risks they face and how best to protect themselves. We investigate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at combating false and unsupported information about the Zika epidemic and subsequent yellow fever outbreak in Brazil. Results from a nationally representative survey show that conspiracy theories and other misperceptions about Zika are widely believed. Moreover, results from three preregistered survey experiments suggest that efforts to counter misperceptions about diseases during epidemics and outbreaks may not always be effective. We find that corrective information not only fails to reduce targeted Zika misperceptions but also reduces the accuracy of other beliefs about the disease. In addition, although corrective information about the better-known threat from yellow fever was more effective, none of these corrections affected support for vector control policies or intentions to engage in preventive behavior.

SUBMITTER: Carey JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6989147 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The effects of corrective information about disease epidemics and outbreaks: Evidence from Zika and yellow fever in Brazil.

Carey John M JM Chi Victoria V Flynn D J DJ Nyhan Brendan B Zeitzoff Thomas T

Science advances 20200129 5

Disease epidemics and outbreaks often generate conspiracy theories and misperceptions that mislead people about the risks they face and how best to protect themselves. We investigate the effectiveness of interventions aimed at combating false and unsupported information about the Zika epidemic and subsequent yellow fever outbreak in Brazil. Results from a nationally representative survey show that conspiracy theories and other misperceptions about Zika are widely believed. Moreover, results from ...[more]

PMID: 32064329

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Project description:BackgroundEarly warning systems (EWSs) are of increasing importance in the context of outbreak-prone diseases such as chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika. A scoping review has been undertaken for all 5 diseases to summarize existing evidence of EWS tools in terms of their structural and statistical designs, feasibility of integration and implementation into national surveillance programs, and the users' perspective of their applications.MethodsData were extracted from Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), Google Scholar, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), PubMed, Web of Science, and WHO Library Database (WHOLIS) databases until August 2019. Included were studies reporting on (a) experiences with existing EWS, including implemented tools; and (b) the development or implementation of EWS in a particular setting. No restrictions were applied regarding year of publication, language or geographical area.FindingsThrough the first screening, 11,710 documents for dengue, 2,757 for Zika, 2,706 for chikungunya, 24,611 for malaria, and 4,963 for yellow fever were identified. After applying the selection criteria, a total of 37 studies were included in this review. Key findings were the following: (1) a large number of studies showed the quality performance of their prediction models but except for dengue outbreaks, only few presented statistical prediction validity of EWS; (2) while entomological, epidemiological, and social media alarm indicators are potentially useful for outbreak warning, almost all studies focus primarily or exclusively on meteorological indicators, which tends to limit the prediction capacity; (3) no assessment of the integration of the EWS into a routine surveillance system could be found, and only few studies addressed the users' perspective of the tool; (4) almost all EWS tools require highly skilled users with advanced statistics; and (5) spatial prediction remains a limitation with no tool currently able to map high transmission areas at small spatial level.ConclusionsIn view of the escalating infectious diseases as global threats, gaps and challenges are significantly present within the EWS applications. While some advanced EWS showed high prediction abilities, the scarcity of tool assessments in terms of integration into existing national surveillance systems as well as of the feasibility of transforming model outputs into local vector control or action plans tends to limit in most cases the support of countries in controlling disease outbreaks.

Project description:Yellow fever (YF) is endemic in the Brazilian Amazon Basin, and sporadic outbreaks take place outside the endemic area in Brazil. Since 2016, YF epidemics have been occurring in Southeast Brazil, with more than 1,900 human cases and more than 1,600 epizooties of non-human primates (NHPs) reported until April 2018. Previous studies have demonstrated that Yellow fever virus (YFV) causing outbreaks in 2017 formed a monophyletic group.Aiming to decipher the origin of the YFV responsible for the recent epidemics, we obtained nucleotide sequences of YFV detected in humans (n = 6) and NHPs (n = 10) from Minas Gerais state during 2017-2018. Next, we performed evolutionary analyses and discussed the results in the light of epidemiological records (official numbers of YFV cases at each Brazilian Federative unit, reported by the Brazilian Ministry of Health). Nucleotide sequences of YFV from Southeast Brazil from 2016 to 2018 were highly conserved and formed a monophyletic lineage (BR-YFV_2016/18) within the genotype South America I. Different clusters were observed within lineage BR-YFV_2016/18, one containing the majority of isolates (from humans and NHPs), indicating the sylvatic transmission of YFV. We also detected a cluster characterized by two synapomorphies (amino acid substitutions) that contained YFV only associated with NHP what should be further investigated. The topology of lineage BR-YFV_2016/18 was congruent with epidemiological and temporal patterns of the ongoing epidemic. YFV isolates detected in 2016, in São Paulo state were located in the most basal position of the lineage, followed by the isolates from Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo obtained in 2017 and 2018. The most recent common ancestor of the lineage BR-YFV_2016/18 dated to 2015 (95% credible intervals = 2014-2016), in a period that was coincident with the reemergence of YFV in the Midwest region of Brazil.The results demonstrated a single introduction of YFV in the Southeast region and the silent viral circulation before the onset of the outbreaks in 2016. Evolutionary analyses combined with epidemiological records supported the idea that BR-YFV_2016/18 was probably introduced from the Midwest into the Southeast region, possibly in São Paulo state. The persistence of YFV in the Southeast region, causing epidemics from 2016 to 2018, suggests that this region presents suitable ecological and climatic conditions for YFV maintenance during the epidemic and interepidemic seasons. This fact poses risks for the establishing of YF enzootic cycles and epidemics, outside the Amazon Basin in Brazil. YF surveillance and studies of viral dynamics deserve particular attention, especially in Midwest, Southeast and neighbor regions which are the main areas historically associated with YF outbreaks outside the Amazon Basin. YFV persistence in Southeast Brazil should be carefully considered in the context of public health, especially for public health decision-makers and researchers.

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The effects of corrective information about disease epidemics and outbreaks: Evidence from Zika and yellow fever in Brazil.

Publications

The effects of corrective information about disease epidemics and outbreaks: Evidence from Zika and yellow fever in Brazil.

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