Dataset Information

Prognostic Models Derived in PARADIGM-HF and Validated in ATMOSPHERE and the Swedish Heart Failure Registry to Predict Mortality and Morbidity in Chronic Heart Failure.

ABSTRACT:

Importance

Accurate prediction of risk of death or hospitalizations in patients with heart failure (HF) may allow physicians to explore how more accurate decisions regarding appropriateness and timing of disease-modifying treatments, advanced therapies, or the need for end-of-life care can be made.

Objective

To develop and validate a prognostic model for patients with HF.

Design, setting, and participants

Multivariable analyses were performed in a stepwise fashion. Harrell C statistic was used to assess the discriminative ability. The derivation cohort was Prospective Comparison of ARNI With ACEI to Determine Impact on Global Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure trial (PARADIGM-HF) participants. The models were validated using the Aliskiren Trial to Minimize Outcomes in Patients with Heart Failure Trial (ATMOSPHERE) study and in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry (SwedeHF). A total of 8399 participants enrolled in PARADIGM-HF. Data were analyzed between June 2016 and June 2018.

Main outcomes and measures

Cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, and the composite of cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization at both 1 and 2 years.

Results

Complete baseline clinical data were available for 8011 patients in PARADIGM-HF. The mean (SD) age of participants was 64 (11.4) years, 78.2% were men (n?=?6567 of 8399), and 70.6% were New York Heart Association class II (n?=?5919 of 8399). During a mean follow-up of 27 months, 1546 patients died, and 2031 had a cardiovascular death or HF hospitalization. The common variables were: male sex, race/ethnicity (black or Asian), region (Central Europe or Latin America), HF duration of more than 5 years, New York Heart Association class III/ IV, left ventricular ejection fraction, diabetes mellitus, ?-blocker use at baseline, and allocation to sacubitril/valsartan. Ranked by ?2, N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide was the single most powerful independent predictor of each outcome. The C statistic at 1 and 2 years was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.73) for the primary composite end point, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.75) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.73) for cardiovascular death, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) for all-cause death, respectively. When validated in ATMOSPHERE, the C statistic at 1 and 2 years was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.71) for the primary composite end point, 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.69-0.72) for cardiovascular death, and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.69-0.74) and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.68-0.72) for all-cause death, respectively. An online calculator was created to allow calculation of an individual's risk (http://www.predict-hf.com).

Conclusions and relevance

Predictive models performed well and were developed and externally validated in large cohorts of geographically representative patients, comprehensively characterized with clinical and laboratory data including natriuretic peptides, who were receiving contemporary evidence-based treatment.

SUBMITTER: Simpson J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6990745 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Prognostic Models Derived in PARADIGM-HF and Validated in ATMOSPHERE and the Swedish Heart Failure Registry to Predict Mortality and Morbidity in Chronic Heart Failure.

Simpson Joanne J Jhund Pardeep S PS Lund Lars H LH Padmanabhan Sandosh S Claggett Brian L BL Shen Li L Petrie Mark C MC Abraham William T WT Desai Akshay S AS Dickstein Kenneth K Køber Lars L Packer Milton M Rouleau Jean L JL Mueller-Velten Guenther G Solomon Scott D SD Swedberg Karl K Zile Michael R MR McMurray John J V JJV

JAMA cardiology 20200401 4

<h4>Importance</h4>Accurate prediction of risk of death or hospitalizations in patients with heart failure (HF) may allow physicians to explore how more accurate decisions regarding appropriateness and timing of disease-modifying treatments, advanced therapies, or the need for end-of-life care can be made.<h4>Objective</h4>To develop and validate a prognostic model for patients with HF.<h4>Design, setting, and participants</h4>Multivariable analyses were performed in a stepwise fashion. Harrell ...[more]

PMID: 31995119

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Project description:Background QRS duration (QRSd) is a marker of electrical remodeling in heart failure. Anthropometrics and left ventricular size may influence QRSd and, in turn, may influence the association between QRSd and heart failure outcomes. Methods and Results Using the prospective, multicenter, multinational ASIAN-HF (Asian Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure) registry, this study evaluated whether electroanatomic ratios (QRSd indexed for height or left ventricular end-diastole volume) are associated with 1-year mortality in individuals with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. The study included 4899 individuals (aged 60±19 years, 78% male, mean left ventricular ejection fraction: 27.3±7.1%). In the overall cohort, QRSd was not associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.003; 95% CI, 0.999-1.006, P=0.142) or sudden cardiac death (HR, 1.006; 95% CI, 1.000-1.013, P=0.059). QRS/height was associated with all-cause mortality (HR, 1.165; 95% CI, 1.046-1.296, P=0.005 with interaction by sex pinteraction=0.020) and sudden cardiac death (HR, 1.270; 95% CI, 1.021-1.580, P=0.032). QRS/left ventricular end-diastole volume was associated with all-cause mortality (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.05-1.43, P=0.011) and sudden cardiac death (HR, 1.461; 95% CI, 1.090-1.957, P=0.011) in patients with nonischemic cardiomyopathy but not in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (all-cause mortality: HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.79-1.11, P=0.467; sudden cardiac death: HR, 0.734; 95% CI, 0.477-1.132, P=0.162). Conclusions Electroanatomic ratios of QRSd indexed for body size or left ventricular size are associated with mortality in individuals with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. In particular, increased QRS/height may be a marker of high risk in individuals with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and QRS/left ventricular end-diastole volume may further risk stratify individuals with nonischemic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Registration URL: https://Clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01633398.

Project description:BackgroundThe frequency of heart failure (HF) in Tunisia is on the rise and has now become a public health concern. This is mainly due to an aging Tunisian population (Tunisia has one of the oldest populations in Africa as well as the highest life expectancy in the continent) and an increase in coronary artery disease and hypertension. However, no extensive data are available on demographic characteristics, prognosis, and quality of care of patients with HF in Tunisia (nor in North Africa).ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to analyze, follow, and evaluate patients with HF in a large nation-wide multicenter trial.MethodsA total of 1700 patients with HF diagnosed by the investigator will be included in the National Tunisian Registry of Heart Failure study (NATURE-HF). Patients must visit the cardiology clinic 1, 3, and 12 months after study inclusion. This follow-up is provided by the investigator. All data are collected via the DACIMA Clinical Suite web interface.ResultsAt the end of the study, we will note the occurrence of cardiovascular death (sudden death, coronary artery disease, refractory HF, stroke), death from any cause (cardiovascular and noncardiovascular), and the occurrence of a rehospitalization episode for an HF relapse during the follow-up period. Based on these data, we will evaluate the demographic characteristics of the study patients, the characteristics of pathological antecedents, and symptomatic and clinical features of HF. In addition, we will report the paraclinical examination findings such as the laboratory standard parameters and brain natriuretic peptides, electrocardiogram or 24-hour Holter monitoring, echocardiography, and coronarography. We will also provide a description of the therapeutic environment and therapeutic changes that occur during the 1-year follow-up of patients, adverse events following medical treatment and intervention during the 3- and 12-month follow-up, the evaluation of left ventricular ejection fraction during the 3- and 12-month follow-up, the overall rate of rehospitalization over the 1-year follow-up for an HF relapse, and the rate of rehospitalization during the first 3 months after inclusion into the study.ConclusionsThe NATURE-HF study will fill a significant gap in the dynamic landscape of HF care and research. It will provide unique and necessary data on the management and outcomes of patients with HF. This study will yield the largest contemporary longitudinal cohort of patients with HF in Tunisia.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT03262675; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03262675.International registered report identifier (irrid)DERR1-10.2196/12262.

Project description:OBJECTIVES:This study sought to evaluate the influence of race/ethnicity on the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and mortality in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced EF (HFrEF) patients. BACKGROUND:Prior studies demonstrated an "obesity paradox" among overweight and obese patients, where they have a better HF prognosis than normal weight patients. Less is known about the relationship between BMI and mortality among diverse patients with HF, particularly given disparities in obesity and HF prevalence. METHODS:The authors used Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure data to assess the relationship between BMI and in-hospital mortality by using logistic regression modeling. The authors assessed 30-day and 1-year rates of all-cause mortality following discharge by using Cox regression modeling. RESULTS:A total of 39,647 patients with HF were included (32,434 [81.8%] white subjects; 3,809 [9.6%] black subjects; 1,928 [4.9%] Hispanic subjects; 544 [1.4%] Asian subjects; and 932 [2.3%] other subjects); 59.7% of subjects had HFpEF, and 30.7% were obese. More black and Hispanic patients had Class I or higher obesity (BMI ?30 kg/m2) than whites, Asians, or other racial/ethnic groups (p < 0.0001). Among subjects with HFpEF, higher BMI was associated with lower 30-day mortality, up to 30 kg/m2 with a small risk increase above 30 kg/m2 (BMI: 30 vs. 18.5 kg/m2), hazard ratio (HR) of 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54 to 0.73). A modest relationship was observed in HFrEF subjects (BMI: 30 vs. 18.5 kg/m2; HR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.89), with no risk increase above 30 kg/m2. There were no significant interactions between BMI and race or ethnicity related to 30-day mortality (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS:This work is one of the first suggesting the obesity paradox for 30-day mortality exists at all BMI levels in HFrEF but not in patients with HFpEF. Higher BMI was associated with lower 30-day mortality across racial/ethnic groups in a manner inconsistent with the J-shaped relationship noted for coronary artery disease. The differential slope of obesity and mortality among HFpEF and patients with HFrEF potentially suggests differing mechanistic factors, requiring further exploration.

Dataset Information

Prognostic Models Derived in PARADIGM-HF and Validated in ATMOSPHERE and the Swedish Heart Failure Registry to Predict Mortality and Morbidity in Chronic Heart Failure.

Importance

Objective

Design, setting, and participants

Main outcomes and measures

Results

Conclusions and relevance

Publications

Prognostic Models Derived in PARADIGM-HF and Validated in ATMOSPHERE and the Swedish Heart Failure Registry to Predict Mortality and Morbidity in Chronic Heart Failure.

Similar Datasets

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