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Programmatic mapping and size estimation of key populations to inform HIV programming in Tanzania.

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION:A programmatic mapping and size estimation study was conducted in 24 districts in 5 regions of Tanzania to estimate the size and locations of female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) to inform the HIV programming for Key Populations. METHODOLOGY:Data were collected at two levels: first, interviews were conducted with informants to identify venues where FSWs and MSM frequent. Secondly, the size of MSM and FSWs were estimated through interviews with FSWs, MSM and other informants at the venue. The venue estimates were aggregated to generate the ward level estimates. Correction factors were then applied to adjust for MSM/FSW counted twice or more, absent from the venues on the mapping day or remain online and hidden. The ward size estimates for mapped wards were extrapolated to non-mapped wards and aggregated to generate district and regional level estimates. RESULTS:A total of 4,557 level I interviews were conducted. Further, 3,098 FSWs and 1,074 other informants at the FSWs venues and 558 MSM and 210 other informants at the MSM venues were interviewed during level II. The mapping survey identified 6,658 FSW, 1,099 FSW and MSM and 50 MSM venues in 75 wards. A total of 118,057 (range: 108,269 to 127,845) FSWs and 23,771 (range: 22,087 to 25,454) MSM were estimated in the study regions after extrapolation and accounting for correction factors. It was estimated that 5.6% and 1.3% of the female and male population of reproductive age (15-49 years old) could be FSWs and MSM in the study regions, respectively. CONCLUSION:This study provides the baseline figures for planning, target setting and monitoring of the HIV intervention services in the study areas and geographic prioritisation of the response by allocating more resources to areas with a large number of FSWs and MSM.

SUBMITTER: Wambura M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6992209 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Programmatic mapping and size estimation of key populations to inform HIV programming in Tanzania.

Wambura Mwita M Wambura Mwita M Nyato Daniel Josiah DJ Makyao Neema N Drake Mary M Kuringe Evodius E Casalini Caterina C Materu Jacqueline J Nnko Soori S Mbita Gasper G Shao Amani A Komba Albert A Changalucha John J Saidel Tobi T

PloS one 20200130 1

<h4>Introduction</h4>A programmatic mapping and size estimation study was conducted in 24 districts in 5 regions of Tanzania to estimate the size and locations of female sex workers (FSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) to inform the HIV programming for Key Populations.<h4>Methodology</h4>Data were collected at two levels: first, interviews were conducted with informants to identify venues where FSWs and MSM frequent. Secondly, the size of MSM and FSWs were estimated through interviews with ...[more]

PMID: 31999810

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Project description:BackgroundThere has been a heightened emphasis on prioritizing data to inform evidence-based HIV responses, including data focused on both defining the content and scale of HIV programs in response to evidence-based need. Consequently, population size estimation (PSE) studies for key populations have become increasingly common to define the necessary scale of specific programs for key populations. This study aims to assess the research utilization of these size estimates in informing HIV policy and program documents across the African continent.MethodsThis study included two phases; Phase 1 was a review of all PSE for key populations, including men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), people who use drugs (PWUD), and transgender persons in the 54 countries across Africa published from January 2009-December 2017. Phase 2 was a review of 23 different types of documents released between January 2009 -January 2019, with a focus on the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria investments, for evidence of stakeholder engagement in PSE studies, as well as key population PSE research utilization to inform HIV programming and international HIV investments.ResultsOf 118 size estimates identified in 39 studies, less than 15% were utilized in PEPFAR Country Operational Plans or national strategic health plan documents, and less than 2% in Global Fund Concept Notes. Of 39 PSE studies, over 50% engaged stakeholders in study implementation and identified target population stakeholders, a third of studies identified policy or program stakeholders, and 15% involved stakeholders in study design.ConclusionThe past decade has seen an increase in PSE studies conducted for key populations in more generalized HIV epidemic settings which involve significant investments of finances and human resources. However, there remains limited evidence of sustained uptake of these data to guide the HIV responses. Increasing uptake necessitates effective stakeholder engagement and data-oriented capacity building to optimize research utilization and facilitate data-driven and human rights-affirming HIV responses.

Project description:IntroductionCorrect estimation of the size of key and bridge populations is crucial for an efficient HIV/AIDS response in resource-limited settings, enabling efficient program planning and resource allocation. The hidden nature of these groups poses challenges to traditional methods, leading to the adoption of innovative approaches like the network scale-up method (NSUM). In this article we present the results of a NSUM study conducted in 2020 in Ukraine, focusing on four key populations and three bridge populations, highlighting challenges and contributions to development of the method.MethodsFrom July to September 2020, we conducted a nationally representative survey in Ukraine via computer-assisted telephone interviews, and applied the known population method and summation method to estimate social networks sizes. Results were weighted based on individual sampling probability and adjusted for social respect and visibility factors to address potential limitations.ResultsOur study achieved a 20% response rate with 10,000 completed interviews. The social network size, using the known population method, was 213 people, and 125 using the summation method. Adjusting for the social respect and visibility, estimated key populations sizes were 295,857 [248,714-343,001] people who inject drugs, 152,267 [109,960-194,573] men who have sex with men, 78,385 [57,146-99,619] sex workers, and 9,963 [7,352-12,571] transgender people, detailed by age and gender. Bridge populations were estimated at 62,162 [50,445-73,879] sexual partners of people who inject drugs, 284,348 [233,113-335,583] clients of sex workers, and 13,697 [7,370-20,026] female partners of men who have sex with men.ConclusionsNSUM proves reliable for estimating key populations size with appropriate corrections. It shows promise for further use in Ukraine, considering limited geographic coverage of the integrated bio-behavioral studies to use multiplier-based methods. However, the validity concerns persist for estimating bridge populations size, emphasizing the need for further method refinement and addressing implementation issues, particularly those related to data collection.

Project description:BackgroundCrossover designs are commonly utilised in randomised controlled trials investigating treatments for long-term chronic illnesses. One problem with this design is its inherent repeated measures necessitate the availability of an estimate of the within-person standard deviation (SD) to perform a sample size calculation, which may be rarely available at the design stage of a trial. Interim sample size re-estimation designs can be used to help alleviate this issue by adapting the sample size mid-way through the trial, using accrued information in a statistically robust way.MethodsThe AIM HY-INFORM study is part of the Informative Markers in Hypertension (AIM HY) Programme and comprises two crossover trials, each with a planned recruitment of 600 participants. The objective of the study is to test whether blood pressure response to first line antihypertensive treatment depends on ethnicity. An interim analysis is planned to reassess the assumptions of the planned sample size for the study. The aims of this paper are: (1) to provide a formula for sample size re-estimation in both crossover trials; and (2) to present a simulation study of the planned interim analysis to investigate alternative within-person SDs to that assumed.ResultsThe AIM HY-INFORM protocol sample size calculation fixes the within-person SD to be 8 mmHg, giving > 90% power for a primary treatment effect of 4 mmHg. Using the method developed here and simulating the interim sample size reassessment, if we were to see a larger within-person SD of 9 mmHg at interim, 640 participants for 90% power 90% of the time in the three-period three-treatment design would be required. Similarly, in the four-period four-treatment crossover design, 602 participants would be required.ConclusionsThe formulas presented here provide a method for re-estimating the sample size in crossover trials. In the context of the AIM HY-INFORM study, simulating the interim analysis allows us to explore the results of a possible increase in the within-person SD from that assumed. Simulations show that without increasing the planned sample size of 600 participants, we can reasonably still expect to achieve 80% power with a small increase in the within-person SD from that assumed.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02847338. Registered on 28 July 2016.

Project description:BackgroundFemale sex workers (FSW) and men having sex with men (MSM) in Kenya have high rates of HIV infection. Following a 2015 WHO recommendation, Kenya initiated national scale-up of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for all persons at high-risk. Concerns have been raised about PrEP users' potential changes in sexual behaviors such adopting condomless sex and multiple partners as a result of perceived reduction in HIV risk, a phenomenon known as risk compensation. Increased condomless sex may lead to unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections and has been described in research contexts but not in the programmatic setting. This study looks at changes in condom use among FSW and MSM on PrEP through a national a scale-up program.MethodsRoutine program data collected between February 2017 and December 2019 were used to assess changes in condom use during the first three months of PrEP in 80 health facilities supported by a scale-up project, Jilinde. The primary outcome was self-reported condom use. Analyses were conducted separately for FSW and for MSM. Log-Binomial Regression with Generalized Estimating Equations was used to compare the incidence proportion ("risk") of consistent condom use at the month 1, and month 3 visits relative to the initiation visit.ResultsAt initiation, 69% of FSW and 65% of MSM reported consistent condom use. At month 3, this rose to 87% for FSW and 91% for MSM. MSM were 24% more likely to report consistent condom use at month 1 (Relative Risk [RR], 1.24, 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.18-1.30) and 40% more likely at month 3 (RR, 1.40, 95% CI, 1.33-1.47) compared to at initiation. FSW were 15% more likely to report consistent condom use at the month one visit (RR, 1.15, 95% CI, 1.13-1.17) and 27% more likely to report condom use on the month 3 visit (RR 1.27, 95% CI, 1.24-1.29).ConclusionCondom use increased substantially among both FSW and MSM. This may be because oral PrEP was provided as part of a combination prevention strategy that included counseling and condoms but could also be due to the low retention rates among those who initiated.

Dataset Information

Programmatic mapping and size estimation of key populations to inform HIV programming in Tanzania.

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Programmatic mapping and size estimation of key populations to inform HIV programming in Tanzania.

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