Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC).
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Castano MS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6994134 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC).
Castaño María Soledad MS Ndeffo-Mbah Martial L ML Rock Kat S KS Palmer Cody C Knock Edward E Mwamba Miaka Erick E Ndung'u Joseph M JM Torr Steve S Verlé Paul P Spencer Simon E F SEF Galvani Alison A Bever Caitlin C Keeling Matt J MJ Chitnis Nakul N
PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20200121 1
Since the turn of the century, the global community has made great progress towards the elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). Elimination programs, primarily relying on screening and treatment campaigns, have also created a rich database of HAT epidemiology. Mathematical models calibrated with these data can help to fill remaining gaps in our understanding of HAT transmission dynamics, including key operational research questions such as whether integrating vector control ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) accounts for the majority of the reported gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) cases. Kongo Central province in the DRC reports a relatively low, yet steady number of cases, and forms a transboundary focus with Angola and the Republic of Congo. This paper describes an intervention aimed at reducing the case burden in Kongo Central by improving passive case detection, complemented with reactive screening.Methodology/principal findingsAt the initiation of this programme in August 2015, 620 health facilities were identified and equipped with Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDTs) for HAT screening. Of these, 603 (97%) reported use of RDTs, and 584 (94%) that continued to use RDTs to the last quarter of 2016 were used in the analysis going forward. Among all health facilities involved, 23 were equipped to confirm HAT by microscopy, and 4 of the latter were equipped to perform molecular testing with loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP). Patients clinically suspected of HAT were tested with an RDT and those with a positive RDT result were referred to the nearest microscopy facility for confirmatory testing. If RDT positive patients were negative by microscopy, they were tested by LAMP, either on fresh blood or blood that was dried on filter paper and transported to a facility performing LAMP. This network of diagnostic facilities reduced the median distance for a patient to travel to a screening facility from 13.7km when the classical card agglutination test for trypanosomiasis (CATT) was used as a screening test in the past, to 3.4km. As a consequence, passive case detection was improved by between 30% and 130% compared to the period before. Furthermore, the proportion of HAT cases detected in early stage disease by passive screening increased from 27% to 64%. Reactive screening took place in 20 villages where cases were reported by passive screening, and in 45 villages in the neighbourhood of these villages. Reactive screening was responsible for detection of 40% of cases, of which, 90% were in first stage of the disease.ConclusionsThis programme has demonstrated that it is possible to deploy passive screening for HAT at sub-country or country levels in the DRC, and this is made more effective when supplemented with reactive screening. Results and achievements showed an increase in the number of HAT cases detected, the majority of them in early disease, demonstrating that this strategy enables better population coverage and early detection of cases, which is critical in removing the HAT reservoir and interrupting transmission, and could contribute to HAT elimination in regions where it is implemented.
| S-EPMC7591064 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans by 2030. Whilst this ambitious goal is rapidly approaching, there remain fundamental questions about the presence of non-human animal transmission cycles and their potential role in slowing progress towards, or even preventing, EoT. In this study we focus on the country with the most gHAT disease burden, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and use mathematical modelling to assess whether animals may contribute to transmission in specific regions, and if so, how their presence could impact the likelihood and timing of EoT. By fitting two model variants-one with, and one without animal transmission-to the human case data from 2000-2016 we estimate model parameters for 158 endemic health zones of the DRC. We evaluate the statistical support for each model variant in each health zone and infer the contribution of animals to overall transmission and how this could impact predicted time to EoT. We conclude that there are 24/158 health zones where there is substantial to decisive statistical support for some animal transmission. However-even in these regions-we estimate that animals would be extremely unlikely to maintain transmission on their own. Animal transmission could hamper progress towards EoT in some settings, with projections under continuing interventions indicating that the number of health zones expected to achieve EoT by 2030 reduces from 68/158 to 61/158 if animal transmission is included in the model. With supplementary vector control (at a modest 60% tsetse reduction) added to medical screening and treatment interventions, the predicted number of health zones meeting the goal increases to 147/158 for the model including animal transmission. This is due to the impact of vector reduction on transmission to and from all hosts.
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Project description:Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.
| S-EPMC9348614 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHuman African trypanosomiasis, or sleeping sickness, is a severe disease affecting people in the poorest parts of Africa. It is usually fatal without treatment. Conventional treatments require days of intravenous infusion, but a recently developed drug, fexinidazole, can be given orally. Another oral drug candidate, acoziborole, is undergoing clinical development and will be considered in subsequent editions. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of currently used drugs for treating second-stage Trypanosoma brucei gambiense trypanosomiasis (gambiense human African trypanosomiasis, g-HAT).Search methodsOn 14 May 2021, we searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Information database, BIOSIS, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We also searched reference lists of included studies, contacted researchers working in the field, and contacted relevant organizations.Selection criteriaEligible studies were randomized controlled trials that included adults and children with second-stage g-HAT, treated with anti-trypanosomal drugs currently in use.Data collection and analysisTwo review authors extracted data and assessed risk of bias; a third review author acted as an arbitrator if needed. The included trial only reported dichotomous outcomes, which we presented as risk ratio (RR) or risk difference (RD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). MAIN RESULTS: We included one trial comparing fexinidazole to nifurtimox combined with eflornithine (NECT). This trial was conducted between October 2012 and November 2016 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic, and included 394 participants. The study reported on efficacy and safety, with up to 24 months' follow-up. We judged the study to be at low risk of bias in all domains except blinding; as the route of administration and dosing regimens differed between treatment groups, participants and personnel were not blinded, resulting in a high risk of performance bias. Mortality with fexinidazole may be higher at 24 months compared to NECT. There were 9/264 deaths in the fexinidazole group and 2/130 deaths in the NECT group (RR 2.22, 95% CI 0.49 to 10.11; 394 participants; low-certainty evidence). None of the deaths were related to treatment. Fexinidazole likely results in an increase in the number of people relapsing during follow-up, with 14 participants in the fexinidazole group (14/264) and none in the NECT group (0/130) relapsing at 24 months (RD 0.05, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.08; 394 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). We are uncertain whether there is any difference between the drugs regarding the incidence of serious adverse events at 24 months. (31/264 with fexinidazole and 13/130 with NECT group at 24 months). Adverse events were common with both drugs (247/264 with fexinidazole versus 121/130 with NECT), with no difference between groups (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.06; 394 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Oral treatment with fexinidazole is much easier to administer than conventional treatment, but deaths and relapse appear to be more common. However, the advantages or an oral option are considerable, in terms of convenience, avoiding hospitalisation and multiple intravenous infusions, thus increasing adherence.
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Project description:BackgroundRhodesiense sleeping sickness is caused by infection with T. b rhodesiense parasites resulting in an acute disease that is fatal if not treated in time. The aim of this study was to understand the global impact of active T. b rhodesiense infection on the patient's immune response in the early and late stages of the disease.MethodsRNASeq was carried out on blood and cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) samples obtained from T. b. rhodesiense infected patients. The control samples used were from healthy individuals in the same foci. The Illumina sequenced reads were analysed using the Tuxedo suite pipeline (Tophat, Cufflinks, Cuffmerge, Cuffdiff) and differential expression analysis carried out using the R package DESeq2. The gene enrichment and function annotation analysis were done using the ToppCluster, DAVID and InnateDB algorithms.ResultsWe previously described the transcriptomes of T. b rhodesiense from infected early stage blood (n = 3) and late stage CSF (n = 3) samples from Eastern Uganda. We here identify human transcripts that were differentially expressed (padj < 0.05) in the early stage blood versus healthy controls (n = 3) and early stage blood versus late stage CSF. Differential expression in infected blood showed an enrichment of innate immune response genes whereas that of the CSF showed enrichment for anti-inflammatory and neuro-degeneration signalling pathways. We also identified genes (C1QC, MARCO, IGHD3-10) that were up-regulated (log2 FC > 2.5) in both the blood and CSF.ConclusionThe data yields insights into the host's response to T. b rhodesiense parasites in the blood and central nervous system. We identified key pathways and signalling molecules for the predominant innate immune response in the early stage infection; and anti-inflammatory and neuro-degeneration pathways associated with sleep disorders in second stage infection. We further identified potential blood biomarkers that can be used for diagnosis of late stage disease without the need for lumbar puncture.
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Project description:Tsetse transmit African trypanosomiasis, which is a disease fatal to both humans and animals. A vaccine to protect against this disease does not exist so transmission control relies on eliminating tsetse populations. Although neurotoxic insecticides are the gold standard for insect control, they negatively impact the environment and reduce populations of insect pollinator species. Here we present a promising, environment-friendly alternative to current insecticides that targets the insect tyrosine metabolism pathway. A bloodmeal contains high levels of tyrosine, which is toxic to haematophagous insects if it is not degraded and eliminated. RNA interference (RNAi) of either the first two enzymes in the tyrosine degradation pathway (tyrosine aminotransferase (TAT) and 4-hydroxyphenylpyruvate dioxygenase (HPPD)) was lethal to tsetse. Furthermore, nitisinone (NTBC), an FDA-approved tyrosine catabolism inhibitor, killed tsetse regardless if the drug was orally or topically applied. However, oral administration of NTBC to bumblebees did not affect their survival. Using a novel mathematical model, we show that NTBC could reduce the transmission of African trypanosomiasis in sub-Saharan Africa, thus accelerating current disease elimination programmes.
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Project description:Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate, probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated behaviourally or mathematically to derive a final group prediction. Mathematical rules (e.g., weighted linear combinations of judgments) provide an objective approach to aggregation. The quality of this aggregation can be defined in terms of accuracy, calibration and informativeness. These measures can be used to compare different aggregation approaches and help decide on which aggregation produces the "best" final prediction. When experts' performance can be scored on similar questions ahead of time, these scores can be translated into performance-based weights, and a performance-based weighted aggregation can then be used. When this is not possible though, several other aggregation methods, informed by measurable proxies for good performance, can be formulated and compared. Here, we develop a suite of aggregation methods, informed by previous experience and the available literature. We differentially weight our experts' estimates by measures of reasoning, engagement, openness to changing their mind, informativeness, prior knowledge, and extremity, asymmetry or granularity of estimates. Next, we investigate the relative performance of these aggregation methods using three datasets. The main goal of this research is to explore how measures of knowledge and behaviour of individuals can be leveraged to produce a better performing combined group judgment. Although the accuracy, calibration, and informativeness of the majority of methods are very similar, a couple of the aggregation methods consistently distinguish themselves as among the best or worst. Moreover, the majority of methods outperform the usual benchmarks provided by the simple average or the median of estimates.
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Project description:Treatment for human African trypanosomiasis is dependent on the species of trypanosome causing the disease and the stage of the disease (stage 1 defined by parasites being present in blood and lymphatics whilst for stage 2, parasites are found beyond the blood-brain barrier in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)). Currently, staging relies upon detecting the very low number of parasites or elevated white blood cell numbers in CSF. Improved staging is desirable, as is the elimination of the need for lumbar puncture. Here we use metabolomics to probe samples of CSF, plasma and urine from 40 Angolan patients infected with Trypanosoma brucei gambiense, at different disease stages. Urine samples provided no robust markers indicative of infection or stage of infection due to inherent variability in urine concentrations. Biomarkers in CSF were able to distinguish patients at stage 1 or advanced stage 2 with absolute specificity. Eleven metabolites clearly distinguished the stage in most patients and two of these (neopterin and 5-hydroxytryptophan) showed 100% specificity and sensitivity between our stage 1 and advanced stage 2 samples. Neopterin is an inflammatory biomarker previously shown in CSF of stage 2 but not stage 1 patients. 5-hydroxytryptophan is an important metabolite in the serotonin synthetic pathway, the key pathway in determining somnolence, thus offering a possible link to the eponymous symptoms of "sleeping sickness". Plasma also yielded several biomarkers clearly indicative of the presence (87% sensitivity and 95% specificity) and stage of disease (92% sensitivity and 81% specificity). A logistic regression model including these metabolites showed clear separation of patients being either at stage 1 or advanced stage 2 or indeed diseased (both stages) versus control.
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Project description:Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) is an infectious disease due to a protozoa parasite of the Trypanosoma genus. In West and Central Africa, this disease is caused by the subspecies Trypanosoma brucei gambiense. Several foci of this disease are currently active and causing the death of hundreds of people in endemic areas. In this article, we report two cases of gambiense HAT in one Indonesian and one Gabonese men in two historical foci of Gabon in 2019. Both patients had fever with temperatures above 38°C, an altered state of consciousness, cachexia, and multiple dermabrasions on the abdomen related to scratching lesions. The diagnostic revealed second-stage infection of both patients with T. b. gambiense; this result was confirmed by a polymerase chain reaction assay. Despite treatment with a combination of eflornithine and nifurtimox, as recommended by the World Health Organization for late-stage T. b. gambiense HAT, one of the two patients died. Thus, these cases highlight the importance of early HAT diagnosis and prompt patient care to fight effectively against this disease.
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Project description:Peripheral blood was collected from patients, seropositive and uninfected controls for analysis of the expression expression patterns of the annotated human miRNA in different sample groups. A total of 40 samples were collected, including 20 patients (9 stage I and 11 stage II), 12 seropositive subjects and 8 uninfected controls
2013-09-25 | E-MTAB-1467 | biostudies-arrayexpress