Changes in Malaria Epidemiology in Africa and New Challenges for Elimination.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Nkumama IN
PROVIDER: S-EPMC6995363 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Changes in Malaria Epidemiology in Africa and New Challenges for Elimination.
Nkumama Irene N IN O'Meara Wendy P WP Osier Faith H A FHA
Trends in parasitology 20161206 2
Although the burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria is gradually declining in many parts of Africa, it is characterized by spatial and temporal variability that presents new and evolving challenges for malaria control programs. Reductions in the malaria burden need to be sustained in the face of changing epidemiology whilst simultaneously tackling significant pockets of sustained or increasing transmission. Large-scale, robust surveillance mechanisms that measure rather than estimate the actual ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe epidemiological surveillance of malaria is a necessary intervention for eliminating the disease from the planet. The international border zones of the Amazon continue to be highly vulnerable to malaria since population mobility impedes elimination. Although in the past few years, cases of malaria have had an essential reduction in Brazil, this trend was not confirmed in municipalities along the border. This study aimed to establish the epidemiology of the disease during the last 13 years in Oiapoque, a Brazilian municipality at the international border with French Guiana, an overseas department, to develop strategies for the control/elimination of malaria in these areas.ResultsData collected from 2003 to 2015 from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance System was used. It was found that, despite the important reduction in cases (68.1%), the annual parasite index remained a high epidemiological risk. The disease is seasonal in that the period of highest transmission occurs between September and December. Between 2003 and 2015, eight outbreaks were identified, with one of these lasting 15 months between August 2006 and October 2007. There were changes in the epidemiological profile, with imported cases representing 67.7% of cases from 2003 to 2007 and representing 32.9% of cases from 2008 to 2015 (p < 0.01). The greatest number of cases was among Brazilians coming from the artisanal gold mines of French Guiana. There were also changes in the profile of autochthonous malaria with an increase in urban cases from 14.3% in 2003 to 32.3% in 2015 (p < 0 .01). The burden of malaria in indigenous areas was also very high (67.3% in rural areas) in 2015. There were changes in the parasite species profile with a significant decrease of cases of Plasmodium falciparum (p = 0.01). Children under 15 years old, representing 9.7% of cases at the onset of the study, accounted for 34.2% of case notifications (p < 0.01) in 2015. Also, 74% of cases in 2003 and 55.9% in 2015 (p < 0.01) were among men.ConclusionsThe fragility of local health services in cross-border areas continues to be an obstacle for malaria elimination.
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Project description:IntroductionIn seven southern African countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland and Zimbabwe), following implementation of a measles mortality reduction strategy starting in 1996, the number of annually reported measles cases decreased sharply to less than one per million population during 2006-2008. However, during 2009-2010, large outbreaks occurred in these countries. In 2011, a goal for measles elimination by 2020 was set in the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region (AFR). We reviewed the implementation of the measles control strategy and measles epidemiology during the resurgence in the seven southern African countries.MethodsEstimated coverage with routine measles vaccination, supplemental immunization activities (SIA), annually reported measles cases by country, and measles surveillance and laboratory data were analyzed using descriptive analysis.ResultsIn the seven countries, coverage with the routine first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) decreased from 80% to 65% during 1996-2004, then increased to 84% in 2011; during 1996-2011, 79,696,523 people were reached with measles vaccination during 45 SIAs. Annually reported measles cases decreased from 61,160 cases to 60 cases and measles incidence decreased to <1 case per million during 1996-2008. During 2009-2010, large outbreaks that included cases among older children and adults were reported in all seven countries, starting in South Africa and Namibia in mid-2009 and in the other five countries by early 2010. The measles virus genotype detected was predominantly genotype B3.ConclusionThe measles resurgence highlighted challenges to achieving measles elimination in AFR by 2020. To achieve this goal, high two-dose measles vaccine coverage by strengthening routine immunization systems and conducting timely SIAs targeting expanded age groups, potentially including young adults, and maintaining outbreak preparedness to rapidly respond to outbreaks will be needed.
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Project description:Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.
| S-EPMC4751525 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMalaria risk can vary markedly between households in the same village, or between villages, but the determinants of this "micro-epidemiological" variation in malaria risk remain poorly understood. This study aimed to identify factors that explain fine-scale variation in malaria risk across settings and improve definitions and methods for malaria micro-epidemiology.MethodsA systematic review of studies that examined risk factors for variation in malaria infection between individuals, households, clusters, hotspots, or villages in any malaria-endemic setting was conducted. Four databases were searched for studies published up until 6th October 2015. Crude and adjusted effect estimates for risk factors for malaria infection were combined in random effects meta-analyses. Bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale.ResultsFrom 743 retrieved records, 51 studies were selected, representing populations comprising over 160,000 individuals in 21 countries, in high- and low-endemicity settings. Sixty-five risk factors were identified and meta-analyses were conducted for 11 risk factors. Most studies focused on environmental factors, especially increasing distance from a breeding site (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.86-0.92, 10 studies). Individual bed net use was protective (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.52-0.77, 12 studies), but not household bed net ownership. Increasing household size (OR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.15, 4 studies) and household crowding (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.48-2.16, 4 studies) were associated with malaria infection. Health seeking behaviour, medical history and genetic traits were less frequently studied. Only six studies examined whether individual-level risk factors explained differences in malaria risk at village or hotspot level, and five studies reported different risk factors at different levels of analysis. The risk of bias varied from low to high in individual studies. Insufficient reporting and comparability of measurements limited the number of meta-analyses conducted.ConclusionsSeveral variables associated with individual-level malaria infection were identified, but there was limited evidence that these factors explain variation in malaria risk at village or hotspot level. Social, population and other factors may confound estimates of environmental risk factors, yet these variables are not included in many studies. A structured framework of malaria risk factors is proposed to improve study design and quality of evidence in future micro-epidemiological studies.
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